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Thread: Twins & SS Stephen Drew?

  1. #41
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Sano-Drew-Dozier-Mauer sounds like something worth trying for a few years.

    At some point you have to start playing for today, rather than playing for the future.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  3. #42
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    A comparison of Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew in 2013. At the plate and their defense.

    Ellsbury - .781 OPS
    Drew - .776 OPS

    Ellsbury - Fielding adjusted to position +12.0
    Drew - Fielding adjusted to position +10.9

    Comparison of the same over their career.

    Ellsbury - .789 OPS
    Drew - .764 OPS

    Ellsbury - +47.8
    Drew - +22.0

    A few other things to consider. Ellsbury put up a .928 OPS in 2011. His highest OPS in any other full season is the .781 in 2013. Drew was worth -17.1 fielding in his first three years. His last five years +39.1. They are both 30 years old.

    Ellsbury contract - 7 years,$153 million
    Drew contract - ?

    I know Ellsbury adds value with his base running, but Drew at $100M less starts to look like a steal.

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  5. #43
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Actually... Baserunning is something I like about Drew.

    The guy is a triples machine.
    "9. Lipstick"

    "How can Canada produce Tie Domi and not have a better military"?

    "I noticed while robbing the First State Bank last night that if you go into the vault when nobody is looking... You can get away with it".

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  7. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Then they would need to give up their 3rd pick for one of those guys.
    And a 3rd rounder is more important then a 2nd rounder? =) in for a dollar, in for a pound

  8. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    Actually... Baserunning is something I like about Drew.

    The guy is a triples machine.
    Well then hopefully I've swayed you a little to the dark side..

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  10. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    IF the player works out. Heck, the Twins have wasted top 5 picks, let alone second rounders.
    Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?

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  12. #47
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?
    I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  14. #48
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.
    I'd make that trade. But the 2nd round pick would have to throw in about 7 million.
    "9. Lipstick"

    "How can Canada produce Tie Domi and not have a better military"?

    "I noticed while robbing the First State Bank last night that if you go into the vault when nobody is looking... You can get away with it".

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  16. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.
    Thanks. I missed mike's point.

  17. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?
    Did you rad my post on the percent that do work out?
    Lighten up Francis....

  18. #51
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I just like the way Birdwatcher said

    "who hasn't, Mike"

    After that details didn't matter... I liked the post.
    "9. Lipstick"

    "How can Canada produce Tie Domi and not have a better military"?

    "I noticed while robbing the First State Bank last night that if you go into the vault when nobody is looking... You can get away with it".

  19. #52
    Stephen Drew is a top 5 overall SS in the game. Florimon, is not and ultimately is a UTIL player (though a real nice one) at best on a winning team.

    If you don't have to break the bank for him, you absolutely have to give Drew an offer. Perfect #2 hitter IMO, and a stud defensively.

    Any claims that Florimon is the same thing as him are so off point it's not worth responding to.

    3 years 31-35 mil? Get it done!

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  21. #53
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    Drew would be a nice addition at ss. But I would rather spend the 30-40M it takes to sign Drew and spend it on signing more pitching (Garza, Jiminez,etc.). They can then try to acquire a ss through trade. Franklin of Sea., Owings or Gregorius of Ari., Pastornicky of Atl., or Espinosa of Wash. are all young cost controlled ss with 4-6 years of team control. That would be a better manuever IMO. Although making a trade for any of the mentioned young ss is a very difficult proposition.
    Last edited by rico7961; 12-10-2013 at 10:13 PM.

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  23. #54
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    I wouldn't sign Drew for a bag of balls.

    He hit 6 for 54 or a .111 clip in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and sucking even worse than his .241/.324/.406 statline the past 2 years in Boston isn't worth that kind of money.

    Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 last year, which isn't much different than Drew. However, Florimon had the 2nd best range at SS in MLB. A dWAR of 2.1, Drew was 0.6.

    According the the SABR community, Florimon was the 2nd best defensive SS in the AL, Drew was a distant 7th out of 10 qualified (everyday) AL shortstops. Out of 21 MLB qualified Shortstops (full-time) he was 13th out of 21 defensively.

    Shortstops
    Player Team SDI
    Alcides Escobar KC 8.1
    Pedro Florimon MIN 7.6
    Yunel Escobar TB 6.2
    Elvis Andrus TEX 5.3
    Jhonny Peralta DET 2.7
    J.J. Hardy BAL 1.6
    Alexei Ramirez CHW 0.4
    Stephen Drew BOS -0.8
    Asdrubal Cabrera CLE -7.6
    Erick Aybar LAA -7.9
    Jed Lowrie OAK -11.4


    Florimon had a 2.1 WAR in 134g last year. He's 26, 1 full season in the pros and will cost $495k next year.
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year, he's 30 and he'll cost at least $10M next year and beyond.

    $9.5M for 1 more WAR a year is overpaying even according to unweighted WAR/$ metrics.

    Pete Kosma, who now is available in St. Louis, was the 2nd best SS in all of baseball defensively, according to the SABR community can be had in a trade pretty easily and for a salary of less than $490K (pre-arb eligible).

    Kosma does not hit as well as Florimon and is barely better.

    Florimon in a full 150g next year could hit 15 HR...and likely improve his .221 average to .245 range. All while at a cost of a cool $500k.

    No-brainer. Spend that $9.5M elsewhere. Add $4M to that, get Garza. Or if even actually considering $10M or more for Drew without being stoned, pony up and go after Tanaka. 1 more Win (if Florimon doesn't improve)...isn't worth the $9.5M. You can get more WAR difference from a pitcher as you have to now subtract Florimon's 2.1 WAR as replacement.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 12-10-2013 at 10:27 PM.

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  25. #55
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    AND...losing a 2nd RD pick in a very rich draft!?! (face to palm)

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  27. #56
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    Nope! doesn't do it for me.

  28. #57
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Nitpic: Drew didnt play "the last two years in Boston."
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  30. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Nitpic: Drew didnt play "the last two years in Boston."
    True!!

  31. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    I wouldn't sign Drew for a bag of balls. Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year
    If you wouldn't sign a three+ win player for a bag of balls, then your team is never going to get anywhere.

    He hit 6 for 54 or a .111 clip in the playoffs.
    Using a 54 AB sample size?

    Getting to the playoffs and sucking even worse than his .241/.324/.406 statline the past 2 years in Boston isn't worth that kind of money.
    Using a two year sample size for Drew and only one for Florimon? Which conveniently includes Drew's outlier year in 2012 where he hit .223/.309/.348 coming off of an injury compared to his career line of .264/.329/.435.

    Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 last year, which isn't much different than Drew.
    A .611 OPS isn't much different than a .776 OPS?

    However, Florimon had the 2nd best range at SS in MLB. A dWAR of 2.1, Drew was 0.6.
    Florimon had a 2.1 WAR in 134g last year. He's 26, 1 full season in the pros and will cost $495k next year.
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year, he's 30 and he'll cost at least $10M next year and beyond.
    You're using Baseball Reference when you refer to dWAR. BR uses RZR as their defensive metric. UZR is a much more accurate measure of defense because it includes RZR and other factors. Here are Fangraphs measures on the two players..

    Drew UZR: 5.3
    Florimon UZR: 4.3

    Drew WAR: 3.4
    Florimon WAR: 1.3

    Florimon in a full 150g next year could hit 15 HR...and likely improve his .221 average to .245 range. All while at a cost of a cool $500k.
    What in Florimon's history indicates to you that he will have this kind of improvement at the plate?

    The thing is, I like Florimon. He's a useful player. But Drew is a significant upgrade over Florimon.

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  33. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Per Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog, the Twins are one of three team in on top free agent SS Stephen Drew, who received a qualified offer:

    http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-st...-stephen-drew/
    This would be a complete waste of money. The Twins are in no position to add a SS now. They would have been better served getting a quality catcher since nobody seems to believe Pinto can handle the job and Doumit no longer wants to catch.

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