Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 68

Thread: I think thes numbers are realistic, and they should make a trade....

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
    Posts
    781
    Like
    38
    Liked 110 Times in 70 Posts
    If only baseball were played on paper...you might have a point. Too bad it isn't. Getting two (or maybe 3) better pitchers will add wins but the offense is still terrible. I think we under-rate the move for Nolasco and underrate how important KC is to this rotation. Having a fresh bullpen is a big deal and having someone "eat innings" has more value than our +/- WAR/WARP Drive computer calculator outputs (thank you Millennium Falcon)

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,616
    Like
    3
    Liked 320 Times in 202 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    To be fair, I don't think it's "rushing" anything to get Lee or Hamels for pennies on the dollar. That's just not a likely outcome.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    498
    Like
    2
    Liked 80 Times in 50 Posts
    The Twins aren't a contender in 2014, end of story.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
    Posts
    1,284
    Like
    82
    Liked 332 Times in 162 Posts
    The team has added Nolasco and Hughes (not sure what we'll get with him) and lost Morneau and some how this team will win around 20 more games this year?
    Mike what are you smoking?
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  5. #25
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,105
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,585 Times in 823 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    The team has added Nolasco and Hughes (not sure what we'll get with him) and lost Morneau and some how this team will win around 20 more games this year?
    Mike what are you smoking?
    Given Morneau's 2013 campaign, I'm not really sure that's a loss. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good, either.

  6. #26
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,713
    Like
    1,159
    Liked 564 Times in 369 Posts
    Well, if you look at the numbers....it does possibly work. You get Mauer for 40 more games, and you get a healthy Willingham, and you get not negative WAR from LF and CF, and Arcia is 2 games better.....that's 8 wins right there. You get two legit pitchers instead of 60+ starts from AAAA filler, that's 8 wins right there. Now all you need is some luck with Dozier and Pinto, and Sano up and average for a 3B.

    Brock, Mauer is 30.....you may as well trade him if you aren't going to try to win this year or next. I don't get why people don't want them to try to win.

    And, I didn't say it would happen, I said it could happen.

    The arguments against boil down to:

    It won't happen (this isn't an argument at all)
    It can't happen (it happened last year)
    Why try to make it happen
    We will know more about the future after this year (after Willingham (gone?) and Mauer are a year older, and next year's FA market looks like the worst ever)

    It's funny, if I write a negative comment, I get all kinds of logical reasons why I am wrong. If I write a positive one, all I get are statements, and very few if any actual logical arguments.

    I do agree, it is optimistic, but I disagree that it can't happen.
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. These 2 users like mike wants wins's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (12-10-2013), Oldgoat_MN (12-11-2013)

  8. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,105
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,585 Times in 823 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Brock, Mauer is 30.....you may as well trade him if you aren't going to try to win this year or next. I don't get why people don't want them to try to win.
    Unless you bump the payroll to $150m right now, Mauer will not be the cornerstone of the next "great" Twins team.

    And that's okay. Mauer is the type of hitter who *should* age gracefully if he can stay on the field. His salary will be offset by (hopefully) a core of very good players making under a million dollars a year.

    If Mauer was 34 right now, I might feel more of a need to push the timetable... But he's only 30 and the Twins don't need the MVP version of Mauer on the field. They simply need him to be "pretty good" while Sano and Buxton become the stars of the team.

  9. #28
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,172
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    36
    Liked 446 Times in 273 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Well, if you look at the numbers....it does possibly work. .
    Agreed. And also to add to that argument is that more than half of the Twins' losses were decided by 2 runs or less and that they lost close to 80% of the games that were either decided by 2 runs or less or went to extras.

    Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important. But we can talk about that in March

    That said, I find adding WARs pretty inaccurate. Regardless, I think that the Twins can compete in 2014

    (and if they don't, fire Ryan and Gardy )
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  10. #29
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,105
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,585 Times in 823 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important.
    I'd say that Kansas City, without some of their young guys making real progress in 2014, actually took a step backward. It's going to be hard to replace Santana's 2013 campaign.

  11. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important. But we can talk about that in March
    I think Detroit has gotten stronger this off-season. I love the Prince/Kinsler trade and moving Miggy back to first.

    Realistically, with a below average defense (arguably worst defense in AL) and counting on Pinto, Sano (half year) and (maybe) Hicks--81 wins would be a marvelous year next year.

  12. #31
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,822
    Like
    176
    Liked 662 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'd say that Kansas City, without some of their young guys making real progress in 2014, actually took a step backward. It's going to be hard to replace Santana's 2013 campaign.
    Given the talent profiles and almost universal down performances, I think real progress is a strong possibility. They had almost every single thing wrong that could go wrong with their offense go wrong.

  13. #32
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,713
    Like
    1,159
    Liked 564 Times in 369 Posts
    I think KC's offense will be better. The SP, not so sure. Cleveland is going to lose pitching. Detroit is still one of the 2-5 best teams in MLB. The WS appear destined to be bad, imo.

    Either way, I think the Twins should continue to try to get better, for 2014, 2015, and beyond. The Cards have shown you can do both.....
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. This user likes mike wants wins's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (12-10-2013)

  15. #33
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,105
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,585 Times in 823 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Given the talent profiles and almost universal down performances, I think real progress is a strong possibility. They had almost every single thing wrong that could go wrong with their offense go wrong.
    It could definitely wash out. Their offense didn't progress meaningfully but still has upside.

    On the other hand, their rotation is almost certainly worse without Santana.

  16. #34
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,822
    Like
    176
    Liked 662 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It could definitely wash out. Their offense didn't progress meaningfully but still has upside.

    On the other hand, their rotation is almost certainly worse without Santana.
    Right now yes, but lots of chatter that they are shopping around. There offense could be considerably better.

    Just imagine if, in 2-3 years, we had Arcia, Sano, Hicks, and Rosario all well below expectations. We'd still very much believe in lofty projections. I think KC has to believe that and has some valid reasons for doing so. Basically, if they don't bet on that turnaround, they'd be better off blowing the whole thing back up again sadly.

  17. #35
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,727
    Like
    870
    Liked 847 Times in 543 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Well, if you look at the numbers....it does possibly work. You get Mauer for 40 more games, and you get a healthy Willingham, and you get not negative WAR from LF and CF, and Arcia is 2 games better.....that's 8 wins right there. You get two legit pitchers instead of 60+ starts from AAAA filler, that's 8 wins right there. Now all you need is some luck with Dozier and Pinto, and Sano up and average for a 3B.

    Brock, Mauer is 30.....you may as well trade him if you aren't going to try to win this year or next. I don't get why people don't want them to try to win.

    And, I didn't say it would happen, I said it could happen.

    The arguments against boil down to:

    It won't happen (this isn't an argument at all)
    It can't happen (it happened last year)
    Why try to make it happen
    We will know more about the future after this year (after Willingham (gone?) and Mauer are a year older, and next year's FA market looks like the worst ever)

    It's funny, if I write a negative comment, I get all kinds of logical reasons why I am wrong. If I write a positive one, all I get are statements, and very few if any actual logical arguments.

    I do agree, it is optimistic, but I disagree that it can't happen.
    I hope the owners of this site do something about the constant drumbeat of "negativity" on this forum....... /takes tongue firmly back out of cheek.....

  18. #36
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    117
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    Thanks for the optimistic post. I am a glass half full guy myself. Unfortunately, if I'd listed ten things than need to happen for the Twins to be competitive last year, I have to admit that only 2-3 happened: Dozier, the bullpen, and I guess KC pitching to his contract. The rest was injuries, regression, or lack of progression.

    For your theory to work, the Twins would have to "regress to the mean," and have 6-7 of 10 things break in their favor. While I think a veteran ace is necessary to win the WS, the time might not be quite ripe. Here's my Kool-Aid Rose Tinted Hopes for this season:

    Willingham and Doumit play well enough to net some decent prospects. I have a funny feeling Doumit is heading down the Lamb route, though--DFA'd in spring training, paid to sit on the couch.

    Sano and Buxton make solid/splashy debuts at some point, and point the franchise in a new direction.

    Hicks rebounds, and redundantly becomes an extremely valuable trade chip. Ditto to lesser extent for Plouffe and Parmalee. And Gibson.

    Next off-season use Hicks as a centerpiece for a trade such as the one you've proposed.

  19. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    287
    Like
    10
    Liked 39 Times in 27 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I will tell you this. The signings this offseason have certainly raised the excitement level above ambivalent. I think we are going to be a much more competent team than the last two years. I would sure love to get the kids a half a season of playing time in the majors. Hell, we could still get second in the division and be 20 games back.

  20. #38
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    135
    Like
    29
    Liked 18 Times in 12 Posts
    Thanks for the article Mike. I am glad someone thinks we can win. I hope your right.

  21. #39
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    616
    Like
    193
    Liked 76 Times in 57 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'd say that Kansas City, without some of their young guys making real progress in 2014, actually took a step backward. It's going to be hard to replace Santana's 2013 campaign.
    Danny Duffy will win more games than Ervin Santana in 2013. Mark it down.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...uffyda01.shtml

  22. #40
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,105
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,585 Times in 823 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Danny Duffy will win more games than Ervin Santana in 2013. Mark it down.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...uffyda01.shtml
    I couldn't care less about wins.

Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.