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Thread: I think thes numbers are realistic, and they should make a trade....

  1. #61
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Then give the Rays Zimmer instead of Myers. The Royals have three prospects in BA's top 100, four if you include Myers. Two of those guys are top 30 prospects on BA's latest list.

    They have the players to make a deal if they needed to make a deal.

    What about Lee? What about Bailey? You don't think Moore could pry away one of these pitchers with one of the four top 100 prospects he'd have under his control?
    Is Zimmer MLB ready? Is that even what the Rays want? I don't know, it was just one possibility.

    I think there are more barriers to the trade market than you're aknowledging. Its tricky, especially when the team in question is a playoff challenger and many of the available arms are in the same league.

    Bailey would be a reasonable possibility. Or would he? He hasn't been traded yet. And even still, I don't see why 1 year of Bailey is necessarily better than two years of Shields.

    Phils are a different problem. Money. Moore is on a tighter budget, and Shields, coming from the Ray, was carrying one of their patented team friendly contracts, not the $20m tag Lee and Hamels have. So I don't necessarily think that's realistic either.

  2. #62
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    i guess where I quibble Brock is this "damned sure" notion. It's hard to be damned sure of anything. I think they had reason to believe they'd add runs just by player progress. So you couple that with a few good pitching acquisitions and you're set. Even league average and they were probably a playoff team.
    You can't be sure of anything, which is why I mentioned injuries early in the thread.

    But the 2012 Royals were 12th in the AL in runs scored. They had some distance to go to respectability.

  3. #63
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    You can't be sure of anything, which is why I mentioned injuries early in the thread.

    But the 2012 Royals were 12th in the AL in runs scored. They had some distance to go to respectability.
    And a lot of in-house talent. Moose, Hosmer, Escobar, Butler, Gordon, Perez should be capable of carrying a league average offense. I don't think Moore was off base to anticipate that.

  4. #64
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Is Zimmer MLB ready? Is that even what the Rays want? I don't know, it was just one possibility.
    I don't see a world where the Rays trade away an ace pitcher and don't want a potential ace in return. Zimmer will probably be on the MLB roster in KC at some point in 2014.

    Sure, trades are tricky. You can't always pull one off exactly how you'd like... But there are always pitchers available and at the end of the day, Shields was only worth ~2 wins more than a half season of Myers.

    It's entirely possible, maybe even likely, that the Royals are virtually the same team in 2013 if you swap Shields and Myers.

  5. #65
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    And a lot of in-house talent. Moose, Hosmer, Escobar, Butler, Gordon, Perez should be capable of carrying a league average offense. I don't think Moore was off base to anticipate that.
    It wasn't unreasonable to expect the Royals offense to be league average or better. But not so much in 2013, in my opinion. Their squad just wasn't very good in 2012.

    This season, they should be league average... Hell, they'd be good if they had Myers.

    The Royals had been bad for a very, very long time. Look at how Pittsburgh handled their rebuild and then look at how Kansas City handled theirs. Now tell me with a straight face that Moore's gamble was a good one. Pittsburgh has been more successful by biding their time, making smart moves, and not trading away any good prospects.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Except for the fact that they still finished in third place.

    And the fact that Moore didn't need to rush his "big push", as KC has no pending free agents hitting the market other than Santana, the other piece of his 2013 push.

    He could have just as easily kept Myers, only won a couple less games (Shields, while good, was only worth ~2 wins more than half a season of Myers), and entered this offseason with a lineup that looks far more potent than it does right now.

    Oh, and he'd have five seasons of control over Wil Myers.
    They could have traded Gordon instead. If Span brought Meyers in trade, Gordon should have brought an even better font of the rotation starter. The net financial implication is roughly $20M year. They could have used those funds on a front of the rotation FA SP. Perhaps Shields himself on an extension. (much higher probability) It would have delayed their contention for a couple years but their window would have been wider. They would also gain whatever they got for Gordon in this Scenario. I can't imagine them making the playoffs this year if they don't retain Sanatana. Shields will be gone and they will have expended an extremely value asset in Myers.

  7. #67
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    Another anectdote (and I admit, anecdotes are just that, not proof of anything).....of why teams should love proven MLB players more than prospects, and be willing trade prospects sooner rather than later sometimes:

    from Fangraphs today:
    A couple of years ago, Logan Morrison was one of the best prospects in baseball. Before the 2009 season, Baseball America rated him the #18 prospect in baseball, and before the 2010 season, he was rated 20th overall. Then as a 22 year old rookie in 2010, he hit .283/.390/.447 in his debut, good for a 129 wRC+. He took walks, he made contact, he hit for some doubles power, and he looked like one of the game’s best young hitters.
    And it’s been all downhill since then.
    Lighten up Francis....

  8. #68
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    A little late to the party, but I just wanted to thank the OP for the thread and the effort put into it. I like the optimism.

    My take on this is that it isn't unreasonable to put a winning team out there. But I wouldn't do it by making huge bold moves that could really harm your future. You just have to cut some corners, spend some money in the short term and think a little out of the box.

    Right now, simple math tells me that the Twins project to be about a 76 win team. All I did was project Nolasco and Hughes to be league average pitchers (+4 WAR) who would take up the roughly 380 IP by Worley, Diamond, Hernandez, Hendriks, Gibson, Walters and DeVries (-6 WAR). Easy math tells me that's 10 wins + the 66 from last year. You could go into projecting some growth by some players, but you could also go into possible regression by others. You also take into account that Mauer is losing positional value by moving to first base, I think the 76 win projection is fair.

    I know some people will disagree with me and say the Twins could spend more, but I think a reasonable projection is $95-100 million maximum. Currently the team is at about $78.5M. This is what could be done..

    First. Be pretty aggressive with Stephen Drew. Offer him a 3 year deal worth $36M and backload it. Say $6M the first year and $15M the two following years.

    Then go after a big bat. Someone like Aramis Ramirez. He's 35, but he can still rake. Being able to DH should also help him stay healthy. He's owed $16M this year but $6M of that is deferred so it would essentially be $10M for this season. He has a $4M buyout next year on a mutual option at $14M. The Brewers are very tight on money and would likely want to get out of that commitment. You'd have to offer some value though, in addition to it being salary relief. Say Vance Worley and a young prospect with upside. Someone like Zach Larson comes to mind. A 20 year old toolsy outfielder.

    The last piece would be to add a starting pitcher. You could get aggressive with a Matt Garza on a backloaded 4 year deal in the $60M range. Let's say $9M the first year and $17M in the final three years. Perhaps you add a 5th year option to sweeten the deal. You could also wait out the market a bit and hope the price drops on let's say Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps somewhere in the 3 year, $39-42M range with an option for a fourth year. You'd also have to backload it. Something like $9M the first year and $15M in the final two.

    Somewhere along the way, I'd be shopping Doumit and Burton or Duensing to clear some salary. If you could shed about $5-6M, then you'd be right about $97-98M.

    You've lost a draft pick or two and a prospect with some upside but you haven't hurt yourself too, too much. You can use Parmelee and Plouffe as a platoon which would also platoon Ramirez and Willingham in the DH role. When Parmelee starts in the OF, Willingham is the DH. When Plouffe starts at 3B, Ramirez is the DH.

    The team looks something like this..

    1. SS Drew / 2B Dozier
    2. 1B Mauer
    3. DH/LF Willingham
    4. 3B/DH Ramirez
    5. RF Arcia
    6. LF Parmelee / 3B Plouffe
    7. 2B Dozier / SS Drew
    8. C Pinto
    9. CF Presley / Mastroianni

    SP1 Garza / Jimenez
    SP2 Nolasco
    SP3 Hughes
    SP4 Correia
    SP5 Deduno / Gibson

    Now you can project a 83-85 win team. With some breaks, bounce backs, growth and help from the minors, you could be looking at buying at the deadline and possibly making a push.

    I can't say I'd advocate something like this, nor is it something I think will happen. But a plan similar to this is something I'd get behind. We all want to see the team win ASAP. Just wouldn't want to wreck the future getting there.

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