Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Results 1 to 13 of 13

Thread: Arroyo, Does he help or hurt?

  1. #1

    Arroyo, Does he help or hurt?

    The guy has a great track record for "toeing the rubber every 5 days" as Kevin Millar stated. He is very likely going to give us 200 IP around 4.00 ERA this summer if we were to sign him. Hopefully his homerun issues aren't a problem at TF if we do grab him.

    The biggest question is will he be helping or hurting us in 2016, since he is wanting a 3 year deal.

    I truly believe he is going to be hindering us by that time. I know, I know, everyone always says we can just trade away guys to make room for these prospects coming up, but it's not that easy when it's 10 million dollars for an old pitcher.

    Someone laid this out a while back in a thread about our likely rotation locks year-to-year. If we sign another free agent pitcher to a multi-year contract this off-season, it has to be a pitcher who has upside and actually strikes guys out. Otherwise, this 3rd FA pitcher is going to be blocking one of these guys in the rotation in 2016: Gibson/Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/ who knows who else could emerge?

    If Arroyo would do a 2 year deal, I think I could live with that. Anymore than that, you stunt the growth of this team. I'd offer him 2 years 24 million and leave it at that.
    2014: 1 spot to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes/Correia/Arroyo
    2015: 2 spots to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes/Arroyo
    2016: 3 spots to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes
    2017: 4 spots to battel for after Nolasco.

    Hopefully Gibson, Meyer, May/Berrios are up to the challenge to grab those spots in the coming years. Then of course Stewart by 2017.

  2. #2
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,033
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    47
    Liked 1,525 Times in 798 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    I'm not advocating an Arroyo signing (I'm pretty neutral on it, really) but no way does he hurt the team on a two year deal and he won't do much damage on a three year deal.

    After 2014, he takes Correia's spot. At that point, we have Gibson and Mystery Player X following Nolasco, Hughes, and Arroyo. Given that Meyer is the only guy who will be beating down the door from the farm during that time, we only have to worry about Deduno, Worley, and Diamond as possible contenders for a rotation spot.

    And really, that's not a problem. A trade can be made should the rotation become too filled with lower-tier starters.

  3. #3
    I agree 2 year deal would be beneficial.

    The trade thing sounds easy, but when you are paying 10-12 million per year, not that many teams want to take that money when the quality they are receiving isn't that great along with it.

  4. #4
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,033
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    47
    Liked 1,525 Times in 798 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    I agree 2 year deal would be beneficial.

    The trade thing sounds easy, but when you are paying 10-12 million per year, not that many teams want to take that money when the quality they are receiving isn't that great along with it.
    I was more suggesting that the Twins could move Diamond, Worley, or Deduno.

  5. #5
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,535
    Like
    61
    Liked 340 Times in 216 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    ) but no way does he hurt the team on a two year deal and he won't do much damage on a three year deal.
    A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

    There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.

  6. #6
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,033
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    47
    Liked 1,525 Times in 798 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

    There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.
    A fair point. One thing about "next year's FA crop", though... It always looks better this time of year. A large chunk of those guys, particularly the appealing ones, will be extended before this time next year.

    But overall, I'm okay if the Twins roll with what they have already, really. Like I said, I'm pretty neutral on Arroyo.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
    Posts
    3,206
    Like
    1,248
    Liked 1,206 Times in 702 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    A fair point. One thing about "next year's FA crop", though... It always looks better this time of year. A large chunk of those guys, particularly the appealing ones, will be extended before this time next year.
    DING***DING***DING****DING***DING

    I feel like we hear the same thing every year: "Next year's crop of free agent pitchers will be better." Then when we get near that time frame, it's always "Free agent pitching is really thin this year".

    I'm not saying that they should or shouldn't sign Arroyo (I don't like the idea of the 3rd year at all) ... but I don't think they should make the decision based on who might be available next offseason.

  8. #8
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,627
    Like
    1,125
    Liked 536 Times in 355 Posts
    From what I've read, next year's FA crops looks like one of the worst ever. Looking now.....

    no catcher under 31
    two 1B under 35
    no 2B under 30, only two under 33
    probably 1-2 good SS
    not much at 3B
    no OF as good as the two big names this year
    the SP could be interesting, but I see most of those guys being locked up or outrageous in cost

    I see no reason not to sign another guy (or trade for one) right now, as long as Sano/Buxton are not given up.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #9
    Banned All-Star
    Posts
    1,498
    Like
    419
    Liked 75 Times in 49 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

    There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.
    You do realise we are currently under 2013s opening day payroll?
    If we go by owner Jim Pohlads word, of 50-52% then we have some where between 47.5 -55 million more in salary we could add

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,535
    Like
    61
    Liked 340 Times in 216 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    You do realise we are currently under 2013s opening day payroll?
    If we go by owner Jim Pohlads word, of 50-52% then we have some where between 47.5 -55 million more in salary we could add
    Payroll would only be part of the issue though. The Twins would have Nolasco, Hughes and Arroyo locked into spots barring injury and Meyer, Gibson and May ready to roll. They could be busts, but surely that won't be decided by 2015; aside from injury, I find it hard to believe two of those three young arms won't be given every chance to keep a rotation spot. There just wouldn't be a clear open spot should there be a superior free agent pitcher available next year.

    Many of these guys will get extensions, some will pitch themselves out of the Twins price range, but there are plenty of names interesting enough for me to want to be flexible with at least one 2015 rotation spot:

    Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Homer Bailey (29)
    Josh Beckett (35)
    Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
    Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
    Jorge De La Rosa (34)
    Ryan Dempster (38)
    Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
    Dan Haren (34)
    Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Josh Johnson (31)
    Clayton Kershaw (27)
    Jon Lester (31)
    Justin Masterson (30)
    Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Jeff Niemann (32)
    Jake Peavy (34)
    Max Scherzer (30)
    James Shields (33)
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 12-10-2013 at 03:10 PM.

  11. #11
    In addition to loving the Twins, I'm also a lifelong Reds fan. I've slowly come around to appreciate Arroyo. I used to be down on him because he has no velocity and his leg kick and occasional corn-rows seem like attention seeking novelties. But he's been extremely consistent and reliable through the years and it's not like we have to worry about him losing (more) zip on his fastball. Two years would be great, I fine with three.

  12. #12
    On Vacation All-Star
    Posts
    4,139
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    35
    Liked 433 Times in 263 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    I would have no issue with signing Arroyo as a number 3. Now that Hughes has this role, Arroyo is redundant. With Nolasco a number 2, Correia a number 4 and a bunch of people fighting for number 5, the Twins need a number 1. Push Nolasco up to that spot and you got problems.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    276
    Like
    8
    Liked 38 Times in 26 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I agree that we still don't have an "Ace,", and Arroyo wouldn't be that guy. However, it certainly is better than a whole group of #4 and #5's and AAAA guys. With Arroyo, the Twins rotation would be competent at least, and a second place finish in the division is not out of the question....

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.