12-10-2013, 08:49 AM #1
The Phillies are apparently willing to trade Hamels, but not eat any of his salary (mlbtraderumors).
Hamels makes a ton of money, 22.5 million/year, but is a legit ace. Would you trade for him? What do you think it would take to get him?
Maybe start with Kepler or Berrios and add in a couple C to B- prospects? I think it would be easier on the prospect front to trade for him due to the fact that the money is the biggest commitment.
12-10-2013, 09:10 AM #2
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With Doc's retirement I'm sure they are thinking pitching all the way. It would probably take 3 of 4 in Meyer, May, Berrios AND Stewart to make something happen.
If I was Ryan I'd run like hell from such a deal.
Last edited by laloesch; 12-10-2013 at 09:15 AM.
12-10-2013, 09:18 AM #3
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I was just about to start this thread. I looked through his numbers and use WAR because it's a simple stat to compare across his peers. Here are my thoughts:
Averaged 4 WAR for the last 7 years. From 2007 to 2013, his ranking in WAR among SP each year was 28, 20, 29, 37, 15, 14, 20 for an average of 23. Pretty darn close to legit ace in my eyes, but not quite to that level of a Verlander, Felix, Kershaw, Price, etc.
If you think he'll maintain that production for the next 5 years (which would vest to 6), you're looking at 20 WAR. If you think he'll slowly decline like some of the projection models, you're looking at more like 17 WAR. If he doesn't stay healthy like he has, you're looking at less than that. The cost you're looking at is $118.5M for 5 years or $131.5 to $136.5 for 6 years -- roughly $23M AAV for a cost per win of roughly $6M.
The contract is close to fair market value looking at both cost per win and his peers. His AAV is right there with Cain, Greinke, and Sabathia. One could say the Twins should just go sign a guy like him as a FA for basically the same price and not give up any prospects, but supply and demand doesn't make it quite that easy.
I'd give up some prospects for him, but I certainly wouldn't sell the farm. The original proposal there with Kepler/Berrios and maybe a few others feels about right. My gut says the Phillies will want a fair bit more than that.
12-10-2013, 09:25 AM #4
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If the Phillies are not eating any of the salary, I would give up Gibson, who will be under team control for numerous years and a couple of non top 10 prospects. I only up the ante if they kick in salary. Can't have it both ways.