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Thread: Never Happening, But...

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Only after you've negotiated a trade with the Rays and have been given permission to speak to David Price by their front office. Then you can start negotiating with Price and find out how he feels about an extension.

    Negotiating the trade is hard enough, especially when you know that the Rays' opening offer is going to be Byron Buxton in a straight swap.

    But that's not really my point... My point is that, as fans, it's entirely pointless to speculate about something so complex. We don't know if the Rays would be willing to back off wanting Buxton for Price. We don't know if Price wants an extension. We don't know if Price wants an extension in Minnesota. Under the best of circumstances, speculating about a specific player-for-player swap is folly... Add in a hypothetical extension only makes the proposed trade less likely.
    I totally agree that the Rays have a strong track record that indicates that they would best the Twins in a trade for Price, but Terry Ryan isn't near foolish enough to go all Dayton Moore and trade Buxton for Price. Now Meyer for Price- or Price-equivalent elsewhere- (plus the extra player accoutrements less Sano/Buxton) is a model the Twins should at least pursue.

    Are there strict rules for "tampering" charges when completing a trade like this? It seems like both sides have an interest in completing the deal, and a team like the Rays would not necessarily have a problem with the prospective team acquiring Price inquiring with his agent about the willingness to sign an extension before the deal is finalized.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    No way

    Ks are not balls in play, so they are not counted in the BABIP...

    So you feel that the Twins will get a bargain and will be able to do much if they have $70M committed on 3 players (Mauer, Nolasco and Price) for the next 4 seasons?
    Yes, but isn't K% based on a percentage of Ks per total number of batters faced? (SO/TBF)

    And, in looking at that $70M number on 3 guys over 4 years, that would still leave them well under the 2011 payroll number, wouldn't it?
    Last edited by jokin; 12-09-2013 at 12:35 PM.

  3. #83
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Are there strict rules for "tampering" charges when completing a trade like this? It seems like both sides have an interest in completing the deal, and a team like the Rays would not necessarily have a problem with the prospective team acquiring Price inquiring with his agent about the willingness to sign an extension before the deal is finalized.
    There are strict tampering rules in that the Twins (or any other team) may not contact the agent or player without expressed consent from that player's current team.

    The Rays would probably waive that request but not until they had a deal solidified, methinks.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    There are strict tampering rules in that the Twins (or any other team) may not contact the agent or player without expressed consent from that player's current team.

    The Rays would probably waive that request but not until they had a deal solidified, methinks
    .
    Which suggests to me that things are not as complex as you suggest, should the Rays be incentivized in making the deal happen by really coveting a Meyer/Rosario, et al, package, they might very well let the Twins proceed with the Twins contacting the agent before the ink is on the dotted line.

  5. #85
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Which suggests to me that things are not as complex as you suggest, should the Rays be incentivized in making the deal happen by really coveting a Meyer/Rosario, et al, package, they might very well let the Twins proceed with the Twins contacting the agent before the ink is on the dotted line.
    It's not terribly complex for the teams to actually accomplish a trade-and-sign, it's complex for fans to speculate finite details of a hypothetical trade-and-sign when they have no idea what the trading team wants, what the other wants in return, and whether the player is interested in an extension in the first place.

    That's my point. We don't even know if the Twins and Rays could reach an agreement because we don't know what one will demand and what the other is willing to give up. Adding a hypothetical extension into that equation just muddies an already increasingly-unrealistic scenario.

  6. #86
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Yes, but isn't K% based on a percentage of Ks per total number of batters faced? (SO/TBF)

    And, in looking at that $70M number on 3 guys over 4 years, that would still leave them well under the 2011 payroll number, wouldn't it?
    a. An increase in BABIP indeed means that he faced more batters. He just struck them out at a lesser rate than in 2012. K% is a rate thing.

    b. Yeah it would, but a team needs 22 more guys and you hope that some of them would be paid more than the minimum and you hope that you can carry 3-4 more good (read expensive) guys. I'd rather see them spend that $30M for 3 or 4 guys who would play 150+ games each rather than a guy who can impact only 30 some games...
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  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Didn't the Red Sox just go from being awful to winning it all? It is a fallacy you should wait for some perfect storm you make your perfect storm. Assuming Price is great for four years, why would you not wan him paired up with peak Mauer? This is exactly why the last Ryan run was a waste, because he was always waiting for something, instead of making something happen.
    Do you think the Twins scenario is even remotely the same as the scenario in Boston? It seems to me you have chosen to argue a point based on a situation you are very well aware is not parallel and is not representative.

    Giving up top prospects for Price at this point would make the Will Meyers trade look genius in comparison.

  8. #88
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    a. An increase in BABIP indeed means that he faced more batters. He just struck them out at a lesser rate than in 2012. K% is a rate thing.
    Yep, which is why K% is a better metric than K/9.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The whole "surplus value" thing is utterly meaningless to me once we've concentrated on the things that matter.
    Surplus value completely matters. It's part of team building. Especially to small and mid market teams. Teams like that need to project surplus value to compete. The goal is to try to add as many wins to your roster as possible, within your budget.

    The Pirates made the playoffs this year because they received a huge amount of surplus value from their players. Free agents like Liriano and Martin were worth $25M+ over what they were making. $25M+ that a team like the Pirates can't afford to spend. If they had performed to the value of their salaries, the Pirates miss the playoffs. That doesn't even include the value they received from guys making the league minimum. Like Marte, Cole and Locke.

    You can look across the league at any successful small to mid market team, and see the same thing. This is what you aim for.

    This is why the Twins have completely fallen off. They are getting little to zero value out of their young, cost controlled players. This is why the Cardinals are holding on to their young, cost controlled players. They are needed to compete.

    As I mentioned, you need to be a 40 WAR team, just to be in contention. That's $200M+ worth of value, depending on how much you value a win. That's why the large market teams, are at such a competitive advantage. They have more room for error, as they don't need as much surplus value out of their players.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Surplus value completely matters. It's part of team building. Especially to small and mid market teams. Teams like that need to project surplus value to compete. The goal is to try to add as many wins to your roster as possible, within your budget.

    The Pirates made the playoffs this year because they received a huge amount of surplus value from their players. Free agents like Liriano and Martin were worth $25M+ over what they were making. $25M+ that a team like the Pirates can't afford to spend. If they had performed to the value of their salaries, the Pirates miss the playoffs. That doesn't even include the value they received from guys making the league minimum. Like Marte, Cole and Locke.

    You can look across the league at any successful small to mid market team, and see the same thing. This is what you aim for.

    This is why the Twins have completely fallen off. They are getting little to zero value out of their young, cost controlled players. This is why the Cardinals are holding on to their young, cost controlled players. They are needed to compete.

    As I mentioned, you need to be a 40 WAR team, just to be in contention. That's $200M+ worth of value, depending on how much you value a win. That's why the large market teams, are at such a competitive advantage. They have more room for error, as they don't need as much surplus value out of their players.
    I agree. This is core concept in understanding the financial implications and requirements of building a winning team in a small or mid-market. It is a core concept to “moneyball” and it is core to the philosophies/practices that have allowed the As and Rays to compete with a fraction of the payroll of large market teams.

    The Yankees and Dodgers can spend roughly $9M a player for the players on their 25 man roster assuming the remainder of the 40 man are minor league contracts which of course is not likely to be 100% accurate. Under the same terms, the Twins can spend around half that number. The As and Rays can spend 1/3 that number. You better believe what you have labeled here as “surplus value” is really important if you want to compete with the teams with a substantial financial advantage.

    This basic premise is also the root of many fan’s frustration. For many fans, team spending is monopoly money. They do not want to hear about spending restrictions, risk mitigation, or any other concept that is an obstacle to the team acquiring the talent we would all love to have. The problem is that the people making the decisions are responsible for real money and the people who have earned the trust that goes with that responsibility invest 20, 30 or a hundred million dollars very carefully. The sentiment seen here of what the heck, spending it is better than the team owners profiting is not justification for poor investment, at least not for the people responsible for the expenditure and the people who pay their salaries.

  11. #91
    Senior Member Triple-A B Richard's Avatar
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    K% is getting thrown around a lot here, I see. Another stat worth mentioning is BB%-- Price walked 3.7% of hitters faced last year (league average was 7.9%). Price may have lost a tick of velocity, but he has made up for it in walking far fewer batters (2012 his BB% was 7.1%).

    I see Price as an extremely valuable piece, albeit one that the twins should not trade for. I believe that Price would be a better candidate if our window of contention began now.
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  12. #92
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Teams like that need to project surplus value to compete. The goal is to try to add as many wins to your roster as possible, within your budget.
    You're still just projecting player development. You're adding another layer to it that's irrelevant because all prospects cost the same. Ultimately all that matters is how they develop and perform. The Twins have failed to develop anyone that has performed - that's why they fell off. Not because they dismissed surplus value.

    Where you may have a point is to your Pirates example, the Twins do need to sign free agents with more upside, I have no disagreement with you there. However, that's not the issue at root here. You want to talk about surplus value with signing free agents - fine. With prospects? It's irrelevant.

  13. #93
    Senior Member Double-A shs_59's Avatar
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    I think Homer could be had

    for Rosario, and Trevor May. + maybe a minor 3rd piece.
    Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
    2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. A.B. Walker (OF-A) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11. Max Kepler (OF-A) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, P Ryan Eades.

  14. #94
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    Your right.....Will never happen and I wouldn't do it cuz I think TB wants a big pkg for him. If we were one ace away then you take a chance.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by shs_59 View Post
    I think Homer could be had

    for Rosario, and Trevor May. + maybe a minor 3rd piece.
    Maybe, but both their value is down, May due to just mediocre performance in AA and Rosario due to his suspension. I'm not sure if they'd get it done right now or not.

    I heard/read this somewhere. Arcia would make a lot of sense for them as he would replace Choo for them and save them money. If we could get Bailey straight up then I would do that. Obviously we need to sign an extension with Bailey which I don't know if it's possible due to strong rumors that he would like to test free agency. Would a 5/100 extension be enough to talk him out of it? Not sure, but I'd like us to explore that possibility. Gotta figure Arcia plus maybe a lower level out of the top 20 prospect could get it done.

  16. #96
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    If Bailey won't sign an extension with Cincinnati, what makes anyone think he'd sign an extension with Minnesota?

    And if Bailey is going to require 5/$100m, go sign Garza.

    Garza+Arcia>>>>>>>>Bailey

  17. #97
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    Seeing this is the never happening thread.... Dbacks are looking for an impact bat and we need pitching. Towers has shot down any talks about trading Bradley but today he said it would be "very, very unlike." Which means he would at least listen. Seeing we are playing make believe how about this:

    Archie and Didi for Sano+ type of trade? Both get impact young players at positions of need. Don't get me wrong, it will never happen, but fun talk to at least talk about it.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    You're still just projecting player development. You're adding another layer to it that's irrelevant because all prospects cost the same. Ultimately all that matters is how they develop and perform. The Twins have failed to develop anyone that has performed - that's why they fell off. Not because they dismissed surplus value.

    Where you may have a point is to your Pirates example, the Twins do need to sign free agents with more upside, I have no disagreement with you there. However, that's not the issue at root here. You want to talk about surplus value with signing free agents - fine. With prospects? It's irrelevant.
    Of course it's projecting. Everything involves projecting. We are projecting David Price will continue to be an ace. The Rangers are projecting Profar to improve over a -0.4 WAR season. When you sign a free agent, you project what they will be worth over the time frame that you plan to sign him. So to say projecting player development is irrelevant, is just irresponsible. Established players bust or get hurt, just like prospects do.

    The point is that the Twins need that surplus value that young, cost controlled players may provide.

    Let's use that Pirates example. Let's just say they traded Cole, Marte and filler for Price last year. Those two players combined for 6.9 WAR. Price was worth 4.4 WAR. They just made themselves 2-3 games worse. Add into account that Price made more than Liriano and Martin combined. So his salary would prevent them from signing those two players. That's another 7.2 WAR. They just made themselves 10 games worse.

    That's why it's not smart for small and mid market teams to make moves like this when they are still so low on the win curve. They are better off betting that their young, cost controlled players perform while signing high upside free agents. Then when you are higher on the win curve, you make this type of trade. The main thing is that you don't sell off those young players with years of control that helped you get higher on the win curve.

    Within the next two years, if the Twins project to be an 85 win team, that has cost controlled pieces in place who are providing that surplus value. Then you make this type of move with a Kohl Stewart+ type trade. A free agent signing is still preferred, but those players aren't always available.

    Here is a good read by Dave Cameron about surplus value and David Price. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-p...r-david-price/. It's a little different because he's actually using a 90+ win team. So I can actually see an argument for the trade. But, it still shows why it doesn't make sense to trade major league ready young players with 6+ years of control.

  19. #99
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    So to say projecting player development is irrelevant, is just irresponsible. Established players bust or get hurt, just like prospects do.
    That's not what I'm saying. Projecting player development is what matters. You adding this part about surplus value is a distinction without a difference.

    If you want to apply it to free agents, fine. But in terms of prospects it isn't relevant. All that's relevant is how they project and develop because the costs aren't variable.

    As for how it dictates trading, the assumption is that these players will be league average. We see plenty of examples of good, even great, prospects never even managing that. What did Florida get out of that deal with Detroit for Miggy? There are examples on all sides of that issue, I wouldn't let it dictate my decision.

    If I'm Ryan I let it be dictated by how to maximize my window of contention. But we are not in that window right now IMO.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by B Richard View Post
    K% is getting thrown around a lot here, I see. Another stat worth mentioning is BB%-- Price walked 3.7% of hitters faced last year (league average was 7.9%). Price may have lost a tick of velocity, but he has made up for it in walking far fewer batters (2012 his BB% was 7.1%).

    I see Price as an extremely valuable piece, albeit one that the twins should not trade for. I believe that Price would be a better candidate if our window of contention began now.
    Ding, ding, ding.

    Price's K/BB ratio was 4th best on the season, but as in all of his numbers except Ks, he was crazy good after his injury, with a 6.50 K/BB ratio. Price was #1 in all of baseball in BB/9 in the second half with a 1.10, a wide margin ahead of his second place rival. For the season, even with an injury-riddled first half, he was essentially still tied in BB/9 for the #1 spot, with Cliff Lee (1.29 vs. 1.30 for Price). For that matter, his second half WAR of 2.9 was essentially identical to league leaders with 3.0 WAR numbers from Sanchez and Jiminez.

    And, as I previously noted, Price fell victim to some bad luck with by far the worst BABIP of his career (.298).

    Price led MLB in IP in the Second Half- the only pitcher who pitched over 100 innings in the second half (106.2), as well is in IP/GS @ 7.11 (the only pitcher averaging over 7 IP/Start) and was right there at 6.95 IP/GS for the season- just under MLBs best numbers from Lee, Kershaw and Wainwright.

    The guy is still an inngs-eating beast, and apparently learning to become even a better pitcher, not overly-dependent on his good stuff alone.
    Last edited by jokin; 12-09-2013 at 09:47 PM.

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