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Thread: Article: The Case For Brett Anderson

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    I don't see how any pitcher who's averaged just over 50 innings a year for 3 years can command that much in a trade. That and the fact his innings these last three years weren't that amazing..
    Qualify "amazing"? Think about what Matt Moore (who is one year younger) is worth, and how "amazing" his last season was, and then look at this:

    xFIP
    2011 Anderson: 3.66; Moore: 1.85
    2012 Anderson: 3.06; Moore: 4.32
    2013 Anderson: 3.26; Moore: 4.35


    SIERA
    2011 Anderson: 3.61; Moore: 1.18
    2012 Anderson: 3.10; Moore: 4.08
    2013 Anderson: 3.31; Moore: 4.31

    Plus Anderson in a Leftie.

    The issue with Anderson is that he is in his last year of Arbitration (4th he was a super 2) and in order to get value you need to trade and agree to a longer term contact before the trade.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Beane had Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Gio Gonzalez basically robbed from him. He's had some good deals, but he's not exactly a trade master. I don't think Anderson is a good idea if it's going to cost a top 10 prospect from us and likely that's what we'd have to offer. He had one good year in 2010 and has been quiet since. A starter pitcher that has 24 starts in the past 3 years is way too radical a trade to pull for. He's made of glass. Experience concerns+durability concerns+team control for only 2 more years=Bad trade target.

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    I don't see how any pitcher who's averaged just over 50 innings a year for 3 years can command that much in a trade. That and the fact his innings these last three years weren't that amazing. I'd love to get him but just don't see any team giving up multiple prospects for him.
    4 years ago he was the No. 7 propspect in all of baseball and when he came up he pitched VERY well. He had the typical sore forearm, then it was followed up with TJ surgery. Post-surgery it took him a little while to gain any traction, but he ended the year pitching well. He had a oblique strain (fluky), but came back strong enough to DOMINATE the Tigers with a shutout in Game 3 of the ALDS! He has had post-surgery success! The arm isn't the issue anymore. He had another non-arm/shoulder injury to his foot.

    This guy is a legit top of the rotation guy that has been successful post-TJ and due to some fluke-type injuries his value is down.

    I mentioned in another thread, what if this were Matt Harvey in 2016? He had a great 2013 that ended with him getting TJ surgery. Then he comes back mid to late in 2014. He struggles for a short time and then looks like the old Matt Harvey in 2015, but he strains his oblique and misses time. Then to start 2016 he breaks his foot. Are we willing to give up a good prospect or two to get him if he's available? He's shown he can pitch post-TJ? How else can we acquire MLB frontline starters?

  5. #24
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Qualify "amazing"? Think about what Matt Moore (who is one year younger) is worth, and how "amazing" his last season was, and then look at this:

    xFIP
    2011 Anderson: 3.66; Moore: 1.85
    2012 Anderson: 3.06; Moore: 4.32
    2013 Anderson: 3.26; Moore: 4.35


    SIERA
    2011 Anderson: 3.61; Moore: 1.18
    2012 Anderson: 3.10; Moore: 4.08
    2013 Anderson: 3.31; Moore: 4.31

    Plus Anderson in a Leftie.

    The issue with Anderson is that he is in his last year of Arbitration (4th he was a super 2) and in order to get value you need to trade and agree to a longer term contact before the trade.
    You're not really giving 160 innings statistical legitimacy are you?

  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    You're not really giving 160 innings statistical legitimacy are you?
    Tell me how you feel about Perkins as a closer? or how you felt after Nathan's or Aguilera's first 3 seasons as closers? Or even Rivera's for that matter... Do they pitched significant innings to tell? Or relief innings are 3 times as significant as start innings?
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  7. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    4 years ago he was the No. 7 propspect in all of baseball and when he came up he pitched VERY well.

    I mentioned in another thread, what if this were Matt Harvey in 2016? He had a great 2013 that ended with him getting TJ surgery. Then he comes back mid to late in 2014. He struggles for a short time and then looks like the old Matt Harvey in 2015, but he strains his oblique and misses time. Then to start 2016 he breaks his foot. Are we willing to give up a good prospect or two to get him if he's available? He's shown he can pitch post-TJ? How else can we acquire MLB frontline starters?
    The key is four years ago, that's pretty much my point as to why he's not insanely valuable IMO. If I'm wrong and some team gives up a B level prospect plus two or three C levels I'll applaud and say I was wrong. But until then what sticks out to me is three years in a row of not pitching very much.

    2nd question - If Matt Harvey has the same issues you describe and in three years has only thrown 160 innings over three years, then no I wouldn't give up a whole heckuva lot for him either.

    I said this in the other thread. If he were to stay with the A's and put together a solid first half 12-15 starts of around 3.5 ERA , FIP, xFIP, etc. then yes, his value suddenly jumps a ton and he's worth a package of multiple solid prospects with one of our top 10s as a headliner. Right now I just don't see it.

    I've been wrong before and I'll probably be wrong again. Is there any trades to compare this to? Probably not considering all the factors. I think most teams that have Brett Anderson or a similar player would keep him and hope he turns it around for them or builds trade value rather than selling low. The A's are a different animal though.

  8. #27
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Tell me how you feel about Perkins as a closer? or how you felt after Nathan's or Aguilera's first 3 seasons as closers? Or even Rivera's for that matter... Do they pitched significant innings to tell? Or relief innings are 3 times as significant as start innings?
    I see your point but Perkins is supposed to throw 60 innings a season.

    Anderson is supposed to throw 200. A lot could happen in those missing 440 innings. Dead arm and fatigue are issues that face starters as a year wears on.

  9. #28
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Tell me how you feel about Perkins as a closer? or how you felt after Nathan's or Aguilera's first 3 seasons as closers? Or even Rivera's for that matter... Do they pitched significant innings to tell? Or relief innings are 3 times as significant as start innings?
    If you're trying to paint Anderson as a reliever go ahead, but he's not. 160IP is not even a year of pitching as a starter and you have no account for starters enduring the grind of a full season. Swarzak pitched 91 innings of 2.91 ball, but he clearly can't make it as a starter. This isn't a good comparison at all. I'm sure Matt Moore could pitch better than that if he knew he was only going throw 50 this season.

  10. #29
    Senior Member Triple-A B Richard's Avatar
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    4 prospects for Anderson with his contract and history? Pass

  11. #30
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Kevin Correia after 50 Innings the Past 3 seasons

    2011: 52.2IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.169 WHIP
    2012: 52.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
    2013: 53.2IP, 3.35ERA, 1.24 WHIP

    On the note of Matt Moore his 3 seasons really weren't that great.
    He outperformed his xFIP by a wide margin in terms of ERA, sat at a 2.0 K/BB rate, pitched to a 1.3 in WHIP, and provided 4.3 Wins above replacement. People just see his strikeout numbers and go "OOoooooh".
    Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 12-06-2013 at 02:46 PM.

  12. #31
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    If you want to take a chance with injury-prone pitchers Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals could be had. He's on a throwing program since his surgery last May. Cards are stocked with young SP some have to be used in the Bullpen. Not sure who the Cards would want from the Twins so not likely a trade could be made before Opening Day.

  13. #32
    Senior Member Double-A shs_59's Avatar
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    If Oakland would be happy with

    Fien and Niko Goodrum as the starting pieces (2 of 3)
    with the third being any C+ type prospect.

    I would be happy to get him.

    I WOULD NOT be willing to give up Eddie Rosario for BA!

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Tell me how you feel about Perkins as a closer? or how you felt after Nathan's or Aguilera's first 3 seasons as closers? Or even Rivera's for that matter... Do they pitched significant innings to tell? Or relief innings are 3 times as significant as start innings?
    Are we wanting him to be a reliever?

    ok so he did pitch pretty well then over his 160 innings. Still that's a bad sign for a starter. Even if his number are great he's still a starter making only a third of his starts or less for three years in a row. Not exactly the kinda guy that should bring a haul in a trade.

  15. #34
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    Doesn't Oakland have one of the lower rated farm systems in MLB? That could work in our favor if true.

  16. #35
    I am hesitant to make trade with this guy's past history. DO NOT TRADE a top 10 prospect for him. DO NOT TRADE one of the cavalry (Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Barrios). If you could get him for say Adam Walker and one other low level (below 25 in Seth's list) then maybe. But force Beane to take Doumit off our hands.

  17. #36
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    I like the guy just to clarify, just don't see him being worth a top prospect at this point. IMO if Billy Beane is smart about it he just holds onto him if someone doesn't overpay right now. If the guy puts up a solid first half then yes, I think his value could skyrocket due to youth and past. But I'm talking like a solid 10-15 starts with no injury worries and good numbers. I'd love if we could get him for pretty much anyone outside of our top 10 or 15. Remember our 11-20 is better than a number of other teams 1-10 so we could spare one guy to take a shot at this guy. Just don't way overpay for him with a top ten prospect.

  18. #37
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    Carlos Gonzales for Matt Holliday who was going to be a FA in a year was out of character. He traded Huston Street in that deal to Colorado as well and got little from the Cardinals at mid-season in 2009 when he traded Holliday.

  19. #38
    Senior Member Double-A Jdosen's Avatar
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    As much as I like Glen Perkins, Minnesota guy, great on Twitter, awesome pitcher, etc., from a team building standpoint, having Glen Perkins on this team is like me having rims and tinted windows on my 2004 Impala. Totally unnecessary. I would give them Perkins and their pick of any prospect behind Thorpe in the system rankings for Brett Anderson. Although this stupid hypothetical trade can never happen now that the A's acquired Jim Johnson.

    I would be ecstatic if the Twins acquired Anderson. It would be the most exciting thing to happen to the franchise since Byron Buxton played a low-A game in Cedar Rapids on FSN. Like Nick said, I don't think the injury risk is as bad considering the TJ is out of the way and the other injuries were not arm injuries.
    I just started the blog Troy Williamson's Hands which is about MN sports and whatever else I want to write--you can find it at http://troywilliamsonshands.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @dose17

  20. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by shs_59 View Post
    If Oakland would be happy with

    Fien and Niko Goodrum as the starting pieces (2 of 3)
    with the third being any C+ type prospect.

    I would be happy to get him.

    I WOULD NOT be willing to give up Eddie Rosario for BA!
    No issues giving up Rosario for Brett Anderson, assuming as he's willing to work out an extension. Rosario is a nice B prospect but not an otherworldly talent and he's at a position the Twins got decent cost controlled production from. Rosario could just as easily bust as Anderson. Its what else besides Rosario that Beane would want that might turn me off.

  21. #40
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I'd deal pretty much anything not named Sano or Buxton.
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