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Thread: Berrios: starter or reliever

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    Actually, it may resemble the game from 60 years ago more closely than the game 6 years ago!
    Eh, not so much. 60 years ago, a guy nicknamed "The Beast" was closing out his career... At a mighty size and weight of 5'11", 195 lbs. Mantle was roughly the same size, as was Harmon Killebrew. Most of the "big" guys of that era were around six feet tall, barring a few guys like DiMaggio and Williams.

    It was a different game. Pretty much every slugger today is 6'3" and 230 lbs.

  2. #22
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    It was just a tongue-in-cheek poke that their biceps (and hat sizes) are more like Mantle's than Bonds'.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    I'd be interested in seeing a study of pitcher size and how it correlates to longevity. My guess is you can probably find many examples of really big pitchers who fell apart physically, and small pitchers who had long careers.

    As for Berrios, you have to assume he's a starter until he shows he can't handle it. He's not really that small anyway, and has room to grow.

  4. #24
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    I've heard the 'height' factor plays into matchups and the 'plane' on which they pitch.

    The mound height was lowered...and so today the plane is more favorable to batters than previous to 1968.

    Michael Wacha has only 2 pitches, a fastball and a changeup. Throws a curve on occasion but something like 8% of the time (1 in 12 pitches). He's successful because he's 6'6" and has a overhand-3/4 (high release point) and the hittable (flat) plane that ball goes through for the hitter is very short. Makes him very difficult to hit.

    So the theory is a guy who's under 6 feet (and a lower throwing angle) throws a ball that's in the 'hittable plane' area much longer.

    I haven't seen Berrios pitch myself. So I can't say. I know that's why many scouts and website pundits favor Felix Jorge over Berrios.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 12-05-2013 at 03:36 PM.

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    Dman (12-05-2013)

  6. #25
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    So the theory is a guy who's under 6 feet (and a lower throwing angle) throws a ball that's in the 'hittable plane' area much longer.
    Sounds more like a difference between major leaguer versus career minor leaguer, than starter versus reliever.

  7. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Eh, not so much. 60 years ago, a guy nicknamed "The Beast" was closing out his career... At a mighty size and weight of 5'11", 195 lbs. Mantle was roughly the same size, as was Harmon Killebrew. Most of the "big" guys of that era were around six feet tall, barring a few guys like DiMaggio and Williams.

    It was a different game. Pretty much every slugger today is 6'3" and 230 lbs.
    Off the top of my head:

    Frank Howard 6'7" 255#
    Rocky Colavito 6'3" 215#
    Boog Powell 6'4" 230#
    Willie McCovey 6'4" 225#
    Babe Ruth 6'2" 250#
    Hank Greenberg 6'3" 220#

  8. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I was skeptical about the height advantage assumption but the Trackman studies written in recent years have brought me around to it. The one thing Lincecum does is launch off the rubber so his extension is effectively closer to your average 6 and a half footer. More extension > shorter flight times > faster "effective" velocity. Taller pitcher will be able to extend farther on average. I don't believe there's any evidence that height correlates with durability though.

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    jokin (12-06-2013)

  10. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Sounds more like a difference between major leaguer versus career minor leaguer, than starter versus reliever.
    I agree.

    The thinking is a reliever only pitches to a batter once...and usually only 3-6 hitters.

    So, one, he can throw a little harder (less time in that plane) and, two, the hitter doesn't get to see that pitch a 2nd time through.

  11. #29
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Off the top of my head:

    Frank Howard 6'7" 255#
    Rocky Colavito 6'3" 215#
    Boog Powell 6'4" 230#
    Willie McCovey 6'4" 225#
    Babe Ruth 6'2" 250#
    Hank Greenberg 6'3" 220#
    I never said tall guys didn't exist.

    Guys 6'1" or shorter and under 200lbs:

    Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Musial, Matthews, Hodges, Snider, Berra, Killebrew, Robinson, Banks... I stopped there.

    Guys are bigger now. I didn't realize this was news.

  12. #30
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I never said tall guys didn't exist.
    I'll say it: tall guys didn't exist. Never did. Never will.

    That was fun.

  13. #31
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    Its something to factor in but its way to early to even go there. Even if he was projected for a releif role the Twins like to have those guys start a few years to improve their stanima & work on secondary pitches more.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I never said tall guys didn't exist.

    Guys 6'1" or shorter and under 200lbs:

    Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Musial, Matthews, Hodges, Snider, Berra, Killebrew, Robinson, Banks... I stopped there.

    Guys are bigger now. I didn't realize this was news.
    It's not news, did someone besides AsburyJohn say that it was? (See above)

    No question that baseball is the small man's game of the 4 major sports. Nutrition, training regimens and a good genetic infusion has done exactly what you said to change that stereotype to 6'3"/230#s. But you made it sound like it was DiMaggio and Williams and that was pretty much the extent of the outliers to your thesis, when it wasn't the case- it's pretty clear that size still played a part as a data point for predicting potential overperformance for slugging types of hitters, even when the average baseball player was significantly shorter than he is today.

    Highest MLB Career SLG and 6'2" or over for those whose careers began by 1914-1958:
    1)Ruth
    2)Williams
    6)Greenberg
    10)DiMaggio
    16)Johnny Mize
    27)Ralph Kiner
    45)Babe Herman
    51)Willie Stargell
    57)Wally Berger
    58)Hal Trosky

    #1, #2 SLG spots all-time, 3 of the top 6 spots, 4 of the top 10, 10 of the top 58. Definite large over-representation sample relative to the average height player of the era.

    Highest Career SLG and 6'0" or under whose careers began by 1914-1958
    3)Gehrig
    4)Foxx
    11)Hornsby
    18)Musial
    20)Mays
    21)Mantle
    23)Aaron
    31)Hack Wilson
    33)Chuck Klein
    35)Duke Snider
    40)Al Simmons
    44)Mel Ott
    48)Ken Williams

    13 of the top 48 in SLG all-time, but only 2 of the top 10.

    "I stopped there...."
    The over-representation of taller players, especially relative to the average-sized baseball player of the era, continues as the all-time SLG list progresses (and the career OPS+ list is similarly proportioned).

    You also had to hedge your list up to 6'1" to pump up that number from your original characterization that most every "Beasty" guy in baseball was 5'11" or 6', which technically removes Banks, Matthews,.....etc.

    Bottom-line, all other things being equal, it makes sense for KLAW to factor in height in his analysis for potential ceilings for both pitchers and hitters. I'm sure he's well aware of the Pedro Martinez and Kirby Puckett factor and takes that into account that more diminutive types are also fully capable of accomplishing great things on the diamond.
    Last edited by jokin; 12-06-2013 at 02:09 AM.

  15. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I was skeptical about the height advantage assumption but....(and) I don't believe there's any evidence that height correlates with durability though.
    Eddie Bane says: "Now you tell me!"
    Last edited by jokin; 12-06-2013 at 02:16 AM.

  16. #34
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    You also had to hedge your list up to 6'1" to pump up that number from your original characterization that most every "Beasty" guy in baseball was 5'11" or 6', which technically removes Banks, Matthews,.....etc.
    I truncated the rest. Really interesting stuff there, jokin.

    I bumped it to 6'1" because my point wasn't only about height. It was about build and frame.

    Every guy I listed was 200 lbs. or under.

    For an example, Mickey Mantle... He was a pretty solid guy, right? 6'0", 195 lbs.

    Justin Morneau is a big guy but he's pretty skinny compared to a guy like Albert Pujols, right? Well, he's 6'4", 215 lbs.

    I brought up Jimmie Foxx's weight for a reason. Guys weren't only an inch or two shorter back then, they were also at least 15-20 lbs lighter.

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