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Thread: The worst contract I've ever seen

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    How do you like that ... Mike and I agree. This is not such a bad deal if you are the Yankees. We won't really know for seven years. Recent history would suggest these 7+ year deals are likely to fail more than they succeed. How bad an idea this is would depend on the teams relative ability to absorb the contract.
    Ha!

    We probably agree more than we admit/realize.
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    This news might be better than the Nolasco and Hughes signings combined.

    Yes, I hate the Yankees that much. I love seeing them do something so monumentally stupid that no one can believe it.

    Yes to this. Good for Ellisbury, I like him as a player. I hate the Yankees and am happy to see them make poor decisions. For Christmas I want them to sign Vernon Wells to a hefty extension.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Ha!

    We probably agree more than we admit/realize.
    I haven't read the rest of the thread...but the Yankees clearly are playing mind games on the rest of the League about their supposed "desperate" attempts at getting the payroll under $189M and shedding the bad contracts once and for all. In fact, they're clearly going after the best FAs at every position of weakness and doing whatever it takes, Yankee-Insane $ & Ridiculous Out Year-Style.....heck, they'll get Tanaka too, if the MLB doesn't stop them from doing so by bending the posting rules.

    But don't you think the terms of the Ellsbury deal stands out particularly as a Bronx-Bomber shot across the Red Sox bow and really just rubbing it in their face?.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    Basically, you're paying $22M for Kenny Lofton. No way would I do that.
    All Lofton did between 30-36 was hit .287/.368/.422 while providing excellent defense and baserunning.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yanke...ed-aging-well/

  5. #25
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    I think this has a long way to go before it can be considered the worst contract ever. I'm glad the Twins didn't jump into this though.

    1. ARod - the Yankees bid against themselves
    2. Howard - They extended for 138M 2-3 seasons before his contract ended and he was broken before the new contract even started.
    3. Zito
    4. Fielder/Pujols/Votto - 3 ridiculously long extensions to 1Bman
    5. Hamilton - this looked a little questionable at the time but he has been exceptionally awful.
    6. Tex - 3 more years left as he enters the death spiral part of his career
    7. CCrawford - basically the equal of Ellsbury's
    8. Cano?
    9. Verlander - He showed signs of slowing last year and Leyland has run up some pretty high pitch counts on his arm.
    10. Wells extension from the Blue Jays. They paid elite player prices ridiculously backloaded for a good player that barely deserved to be on a baseball field for half of the contract.

    An interesting argument could be made for/against any of these being better/worse than Ellsbury's deal. And there are probably 5-10 more that could be added to these.
    Last edited by kab21; 12-04-2013 at 08:59 AM.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I think this has a long way to go before it can be considered the worst contract ever. I'm glad the Twins didn't jump into this though.

    1. ARod - the Yankees bid against themselves
    2. Howard - They extended for 138M 2-3 seasons before his contract ended and he was broken before the new contract even started.
    3. Zito
    4. Fielder/Pujols/Votto - 3 ridiculously long extensions to 1Bman
    5. Hamilton - this looked a little questionable at the time but he has been exceptionally awful.
    6. Tex - 3 more years left as he enters the death spiral part of his career
    7. CCrawford - basically the equal of Ellsbury's
    8. Cano?
    9. Verlander - He showed signs of slowing last year and Leyland has run up some pretty high pitch counts on his arm.
    10. Wells extension from the Blue Jays. They paid elite player prices ridiculously backloaded for a good player that barely deserved to be on a baseball field for half of the contract.

    An interesting argument could be made for/against any of these being better/worse than Ellsbury's deal. And there are probably 5-10 more that could be added to these.

    No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Amazing how people can see into the future. Time will tell if it's a bad contract, the Yankees have the money and are trying to make their team better.

    The Twins have lots of money still about 30-35 mill below the stated 52% Jim Pohlad said they'd spend to put a competitive team on the field.

    I'd much rather have my team try and maybe end up with a bad contract instead of sitting back afraid of making a mistake while keeping the money in the owners pocket.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  8. These 2 users like Winston Smith's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    mike wants wins (12-04-2013), Willihammer (12-04-2013)

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.
    Perhaps on Fielder but we are talking about 7 more years and he wasn't elite last year.
    Pujols has shown decline for 3 straight years (with 8 years left). http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/alb...swift-descent/
    Votto's new contract hasn't even started yet. He has 10 more years left.

  10. #29
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Amazing how people can see into the future. Time will tell if it's a bad contract, the Yankees have the money and are trying to make their team better.

    The Twins have lots of money still about 30-35 mill below the stated 52% Jim Pohlad said they'd spend to put a competitive team on the field.

    I'd much rather have my team try and maybe end up with a bad contract instead of sitting back afraid of making a mistake while keeping the money in the owners pocket.
    He's an up the middle guy with a marginal bat outside of the 2011 season, he has marginal plate discipline, and lives and dies by his legs.

    In short, he's not a guy you want to give a seven year contract. Sure, he might be Rickey Henderson... But we've seen exactly one Rickey Henderson since 1920. Odds are against the guy thriving through his late 30s.

    It's not about seeing the future, it's playing the odds and using player models to your advantage to minimize risk. And all things point to Jacoby Ellsbury declining quite rapidly. Hell, he hasn't been a great player since 2011 (and it should also be noted that was the only season he was a great player).

    Ignore what appears to be a flukish 2011 and Ellsbury is basically Michael Bourn at three times the price. I'm not sure how anyone would consider that a good deal.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.
    I tend to agree with Seabiscuit. Votto is hitting. Fielder, the guy hasn't missed a game. Detroit is tougher on LHB. I think he'll do fine in Texas. He's never been injured in any form.

    Pujols had foot surgery, oblique issues, and shoulder issues. He tried to play through them. He had the surgery. I don't think he's done. I think he can hit til he's 37/38 at .300 30 100 level. I can be wrong of course. I just don't see his skills diminishing that much when healthy. He's too disciplined/hard worker to not.

    I would agree with the rest of your list though.

    Maybe Verlander, like Clemens sans the steroids, will have a 2nd wing after 30 to his career.

  12. #31
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    What Brock said. I was surprised at how old he is. Guys who get this kind of money typically make it big by their 25th birthday. His first above-average year was at age 27. And he's only had two above average years in his career. Here is his OPS+ for his career:

    2007/23: 131 (127 PAs)
    2008/24: 88 (609 PAs)
    2009/25: 98 (624 PAs)
    2010/26: 30 (84 PAs in injury year)
    2011/27: 146 (732 PAs)
    2012/28: 84 (323 PAs in injury-shortened year)
    2013/29: 114 (636 PAs)
    Career: 108

    That does not say elite player on the upswing in his career, which is the contract he got. That says above-average player in decline. And if you focus on defense, which at times has been elite, you can expect significant decline by the end of the contract. Center fielders with limited power do not fare well into their 30s because they have no place to go when their range declines. Guys like Hunter have the bat to take them to a corner. Ellsbury? Not so much.

    Upshot: This is one of the riskiest free agent contracts in the game. There is almost no chance the Yankees will get anywhere near the value they are investing in this player.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  13. #32
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    This is a bad contract. I don't think it looks worse than Pujols contract does right now.

    Of course, no one expected that the Pujols contract would look this bad two years after the fact. Pretty much everyone expects this contract to look bad two years from now.

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    All Lofton did between 30-36 was hit .287/.368/.422 while providing excellent defense and baserunning.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yanke...ed-aging-well/
    Yeah Lofton was a borderline HOF candidate (should have at least gotten more consideration). If there was any reasonable expectation for Ellsbury to play like Lofton this would be fine contract. Ellsbury's age 27 and 29 seasons might resemble Lofton's. But you can't fill in all the years with injuries and mediocre hitting with Lofton like years and think you have Kenny Lofton.

  15. #34
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2wins87 View Post
    Yeah Lofton was a borderline HOF candidate (should have at least gotten more consideration). If there was any reasonable expectation for Ellsbury to play like Lofton this would be fine contract. Ellsbury's age 27 and 29 seasons might resemble Lofton's. But you can't fill in all the years with injuries and mediocre hitting with Lofton like years and think you have Kenny Lofton.
    Heh, yep. Lofton posted a WAR over 4.0 in every one of his first eight seasons. He posted a WAR of 4.9 or higher in seven of those seasons.

    Ellsbury has two seasons with a WAR above 5.0.

  16. #35
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    I'm just glad the Yankees are adept at signing 30+ something year olds to megadeals.

    It helps keep things honest for the rest of the league. Imagine if they were actually good at developing talent and had discretionary and fiscal responsibility in their cap moves...

    Mark Teixeira, $24.6 for 3 more years
    CC Sabathia, $23M for 4 more years
    Alex Rodriguez, $26M for 4 more years
    Vernon Wells, $23M

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0E&output=html

    Now McCann at $17M per and Ellsbury at $22M per.

    Didn't Derek Jeter get another $10-12M extension?

    Any time they can get stuck/locked into big contracts for long periods of time is great. Provides little flexibility if injuries/etc.

  17. #36
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    2 OF contracts were worse

    The Jayson Werth contract and the Vernon Wells contract were worse and perhaps the Matt Kemp contract. Of the top 10 OF contracts for money 6 of the players were traded and the Reds tried to trade Griffey.

  18. #37
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    Basically, you're paying $22M for Kenny Lofton. No way would I do that.
    I bet he won't age nearly as well as Lofton did, who stayed very productive (and very journeyed) until his late 30s. As great as Lofton was, there's a reason he received so many one year contracts in his thirties; players with his skill set hadn't aged as well as Lofton atypically did.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 12-04-2013 at 01:50 PM.

  19. #38
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    All Lofton did between 30-36 was hit .287/.368/.422 while providing excellent defense and baserunning.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yanke...ed-aging-well/
    I'd question excellent based on his arm, but others don't include that in overall defensive viewpoints. I'm not saying Lofton was a bad player at all, either, just that he's nowhere near worth an elite contract in the game. How much different is Jacoby Ellsbury from Brett Gardner or Desmond Jennings or any number of guys knocking on the door every year with similar high-OBP, speed, defense CF skillsets? Not enough for me to pay him elite money.
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  20. #39
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    Its not a bad contract , Just like with A-RIOD the Yankees will have the commish discover he did some thing wrong and will hand him a 211 game suspention thus voiding the last 2 years of his contract

  21. #40
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I bet he won't age nearly as well as Lofton did, who stayed very productive (and very journeyed) until his late 30s.
    I will always be anti-Lofton to some degree for costing the Braves David Justice and Marquis Grissom to get his worst season baserunning by far in his career. He hit .330+/.400+ for the Braves, but got a reputation for not playing through any nick or bruise and was caught nearly as many times stealing as he stole that season. He also had some horrible blunders on the basepaths that season on what should have been easy tag-up's, 1st-to-3rd's, and other plays. He then went on to his sub-.200 in the playoffs that season and struck out 1/4 of his plate appearances while committing multiple errors in the NLCS against the Marlins. The Braves gave up one of their franchise's most popular players to acquire him, and they were more than happy to let him go after one season.

    I will not argue that he aged very well, even having a very good full season his last year, which surprises me that he didn't attempt to keep on toward goals like 2500 hits or 650 steals, but he was simply done.

    Juan Pierre is another guy who's aged well, but also well traveled.

    My comparison isn't so much that Lofton was a poor player as he aged, but that he was easily available to teams. Heck, Juan Pierre has been found for a song in recent years and put up lines like .307/.351 with 37 steals in 2012 in only 439 PA. Guys like that aren't in the uber-elite of the pay threshold, and shouldn't require 20M+ over long-term to acquire.
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