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Thread: Twins Interested in Brett Anderson

  1. #81
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    contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Well let's look at the injury history

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca...d.php?id=57286

    2007: Concussion from a car accident, 29 days missed
    2009: blister, 10 days missed
    2010: Flexor tendon strain, 40 days missed
    2010: elbow inflammation, 56 days missed
    2011: Tommy John surgery (Jul 14)
    ....
    2012 (Sept): belly strain, 20 days missed
    2013: ankle sprain, 120 days missed

    Most of that time is related to the elbow so if TJ fixed it, I think its reasonable to expect him to throw more innings in 2014. 4 months for an ankle sprain does seem like a lot though.
    How did this guy get such a large contract? He was injured before his arbitration years.

  2. #82
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    It all depends on what the A's really want. If names like Rosario, Arcia, Gibson, May (top 20 guys) are being thrown around - no thanks. IF (big if) the Twins were to move those types of prospects, I'd like to see a little more sure-bet return than Anderson.

    However, if it's true the A's want middle relievers - I'd entertain just about anyone on the roster that fits - Duensing, Swarzak, Worley, Pressly etc.

  3. #83
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    I just wanted to point out to the posters with injury concerns on Anderson, Garza has had elbow, shoulder and lat injuries over the last two years where Anderson's injuries were an oblique strain and a stress fracture in his foot.

    That being said, I wouldn't trade multiple impact prospects for Anderson. I also wouldn't give Garza more than a Nolasco, Edwin Jackson type contract. As a team, you always should try to improve, even when you are this low on the win curve. However, you should be looking for value, not an overpay.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Well let's look at the injury history

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca...d.php?id=57286

    2007: Concussion from a car accident, 29 days missed
    2009: blister, 10 days missed
    2010: Flexor tendon strain, 40 days missed
    2010: elbow inflammation, 56 days missed
    2011: Tommy John surgery (Jul 14)
    ....
    2012 (Sept): belly strain, 20 days missed
    2013: ankle sprain, 120 days missed

    Most of that time is related to the elbow so if TJ fixed it, I think its reasonable to expect him to throw more innings in 2014. 4 months for an ankle sprain does seem like a lot though.

    The question is, what are you willing to bet that is true? Your future starting LF/2B? A guy that most considered a number 3/4 for the last few years, who should now be recovered from surgery? Both of them?

    No one is saying don't take a gamble on him. People are disagreeing on what to gamble (I think no one is saying don't gamble on him). People are also pointing out that for more money, but zero prospects, you can get a guy that seems recovered from surgery and has been a number 2/3 over his career.
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #85
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    People are also pointing out that for more money, but zero prospects, you can get a guy that seems recovered from surgery and has been a number 2/3 over his career.
    Mike, I think the difference there is that Garza would require a commitment of much more money and many more years. If you think 25-year old Anderson is as good as 30-year old Garza and can be healthy, there's certainly value in having him for 2 years at $20M as opposed to being locked in with Garza at 5 years and $80M or whatever he gets. Anderson can be qualified or later dealt. I think OAK can get more than just a salary dump.

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    johnnydakota (12-06-2013)

  7. #86
    While Anderson has a lot of upside, I don't know that I would give up one of our top 6-7 prospects. How about a package of lesser prospects? Considering Oakland's budget constraints and desire to dump some salary maybe a package like Kepler, Diamond or Worley, and another low-level prospect would get it done? Not sure if Diamond or Worley could stick in Oakland though.

  8. #87
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    I wouldnt give up any top 10 prospects for sure, probably not top 15 either. I would try & push Levi Michael packaged with someone like Worley & Burton but dont think that would do it. I would probably pull the trigger on a counter offer with Niko Goodrum, Worley, & Ryan Pressley.

    You still have Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, & Eddie Rosario so you can afford to give up on a promising middle infielder.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 12-05-2013 at 08:16 PM.

  9. #88
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    Oakland has money for a change, they just took in Jim Johnson as a closer at $10mill. They are where the Twins hopefully will be in 2015-2018. Loaded with talented pre arbitration players stacking a cheap roster.

    They wont just dump him for marbles. I get the injury history but most of it is realted to TJ issues with the elbow. He has "Ace stuff" and can dominate games when he is healthy.

  10. #89
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    I would happily part with a top 10-ish prospect for Anderson. Obviously not Sano/Buxton, but something below that.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Well let's look at the injury history

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca...d.php?id=57286

    2007: Concussion from a car accident, 29 days missed
    2009: blister, 10 days missed
    2010: Flexor tendon strain, 40 days missed
    2010: elbow inflammation, 56 days missed
    2011: Tommy John surgery (Jul 14)
    ....
    2012 (Sept): belly strain, 20 days missed
    2013: ankle sprain, 120 days missed

    Most of that time is related to the elbow so if TJ fixed it, I think its reasonable to expect him to throw more innings in 2014. 4 months for an ankle sprain does seem like a lot though.
    120 days is a long time for a sprained ankle. Not so long when you have a fracture, like was listed in baseball prospectus.


    2013-05-17 2013-05-17 On-Alr 0 0 Right Foot Stress Fracture Navicular - -
    Last edited by The Wise One; 12-06-2013 at 01:04 AM.

  12. #91
    Interesting name. He may or may not pan out in the end, that and his current salary obligations would be the big factor. The A's don't have a lot of roster space to just take guys, but a Worley and a couple of non 40-man depth minor league guys might pull the string. They got their closer. The pain about trading relief is that no one needs to trade for it until the season begins...enough names out there looking for jobs that CAN be reasonably priced (just former Twins Neshek, Guerrier, Crain alone).
    Joel Thingvall
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  13. #92
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    As long as Worley is out of options and has a tenuous spot on the roster, he has no trade value. The Twins might be able to get a similar out of options player for Worley.

    I think the A's will keep him unless they get an offer of real prospects. They don't need players on the fringe of another teams 25 and 40 man roster. They certainly don't need multiple fringe players.

  14. #93
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    120 days is a long time for a sprained ankle. Not so long when you have a fracture, like was listed in baseball prospectus.


    2013-05-17 2013-05-17 On-Alr 0 0 Right Foot Stress Fracture Navicular - -
    Oh yeah I missed that.

    So we're not talking about a hamstring pull or turf toe or Justin Morneau back spasms that show up every other September. And if the Twins can pay something like the Nats did for Fister...

  15. #94
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    He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in.

    Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.

  16. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden.
    Interesting comp in Rich Harden.

    Both Anderson and Harden were up with Oakland at age 21, had early success and signed contracts through age 27. But through age 25 both had only pitched around 450 MLB innings due to repeated injuries, and neither pitched much from ages 23-25. (Harden had not yet had major surgery, however, and was the better pitcher through age 25: career ERA+ 124 to Anderson's 108).

    Oakland got 13 good starts out of Harden at age 26 before flipping him to the Cubs for:
    - their previous years sandwich pick (22 y.o. decent hitting college catcher in A-ball)
    - a 22 y.o. starter with 10 good starts already to begin his career (7.5 K/9 and 103 ERA+, #82 preseason prospect)
    - a 26 y.o. corner OF with an average MLB bat over almost 1000 PAs, wasting in AAA?
    - a 25 y.o. MLB ready 2B with decent all-around minor league numbers but very little MLB experience to date

    Think the Twins can match that?

    (FWIW, only the catcher amounted to much in MLB, the late blossoming Josh Donaldson)

  17. #96
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in.

    Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.
    My impression is that TJs are a more reliable recovery than shoulder surgeries. Therefore I would expect the price to be higher. And again, unless the Twins intend to enter the Tanaka sweepstakes or signing Santana/Garza I think they have to be open to paying whatever price that is.

  18. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    My impression is that TJs are a more reliable recovery than shoulder surgeries. Therefore I would expect the price to be higher. And again, unless the Twins intend to enter the Tanaka sweepstakes or signing Santana/Garza I think they have to be open to paying whatever price that is.
    I'm sure they will enter the Tanaka sweepstakes, but lose mostly likely the to the Yankees. No way they will pursue albatross contracts with Santana/Garza. Ryan recently said it's unlikely he will use his prospects. If they do pursue another free agent starter, I believe they will wait the market out and make a Pelfrey type signing.

  19. #98
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    The Harden comp was more about injury than performance I guess. Brett Anderson doesn't have near the upside that Harden did as you pointed out. Plus I think teams are a bit more hesitant about trading prospect than they were a few years ago. Like I said, no one in the top ten, I would say one major league reliever and a young high upside prospect someone in the 15-30 range preferably. You can tell me I told you so if I'm wrong but I don't think they're going to get much more than that in any trade that happens in the offseason. Maybe some team will overpay, I don't think the Twins will do that. If it were me, I'd hold onto him and try to trade him at the deadline next year, hoping he puts together 10-15 good starts prior to that. The fact that the A's are trying to get rid of him when they are in win now mode would make me nervous as well. He could be a major piece for them this season.

  20. #99
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    Another way to look at it:

    Using Sickels rankings, the Cubs traded their preseason 3, 4, and 6 prospects (plus Matt Murton, 26 y.o. ~100 OPS+ corner OF) midseason 2008 for Harden. All grade B (equivalent to Rosario or Berrios now).

  21. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Another way to look at it:

    Using Sickels rankings, the Cubs traded their preseason 3, 4, and 6 prospects (plus Matt Murton, 26 y.o. ~100 OPS+ corner OF) midseason 2008 for Harden. All grade B (equivalent to Rosario or Berrios now).
    Again, apples and oranges. Other than injury history these are not the same guys. If Brett Anderson can come in and pitch 77 innings of 2.34 ERA and strike out 11 per 9 IP then yes, the A's are going to get handsomely rewarded for being patient. Unfortunately Brett Anderson has never had an ERA below 2.8 and a career K/9 of 7.1. Really not the same guy.

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