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Thread: Was Terry Ryan Right About Correia?

  1. #41
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GCTF View Post
    I wouldn't have thought using an example of 26 consecutive starts in the same season, after an aberration of an April, to say something about that pitcher in that season would be cherry picking stats to manufacture a point. It's not like I omitted his last couple starts of the season and said "see how awful he was".
    But my point still stands. If you take someone mediocre like Kevin Correia and remove his best month, he looks like a bad pitcher. If you remove his worst month, he looks like a good pitcher (his ERA would be under 4.00 at that point). That's how mediocrity works. He's going to have outstanding months and he's going to have awful months. Exclude one or the other and it looks like you're cherry-picking to get the results you want to see instead of the results that actually occurred.

    It's not as if Correia had an outstanding April and then scuffled for five straight months. Like I said, his second and third best months were August and September, where he was average to above average again.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I view it like this:

    1. Ryan badly overestimated Worley, Diamond, et al. He thought the rotation would be an acceptable patchwork of pitchers. He was wrong.

    2. He knew that minor league help was still a couple years away and while he was talking a good "we'll be competitive" game, he had absolutely no intent on signing anyone with the youngsters still so far away.

    3. A combination of the two.

    Last year, I was quite vocal about not wanting the Twins to sign expensive pitchers who will probably be in a decline phase by the time Sano, Buxton, Arcia, etc. are good players. On the other hand, I was also against Kevin Correia being "the guy" and wanted to see the Twins roll the dice on guys like Marcum or Dempster.

    Turns out, I was wrong. Those guys were mostly useless in 2013. But still, I would have liked to see Ryan make an attempt to shore up the rotation with legitimate upside starters or just punt the season entirely. Either option was fine with me in the long-run but I'm not a fan of fence-sitting. The Twins didn't need to drop $100m on a starter last offeason to save face... But Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey just weren't going to cut it.
    I think Ryan did just punt the season entirely. Of course he wouldn't say that openly when there are sales people whose livelihoods depended on a competitive team with offices in the same building. And he did overestimate Worely and Diamond (most of us did as well). He also expected Deduno to be healthy and he wasn't until June. And countless other smaller disappointments added up (Gibson). But I don't think he had a reasonable expectation of competing in 2013. And he knew it.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #43
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    I admit I was wrong on Correia, he was better than I expected he would be and turned out to be a pretty good pickup for the price. I was right about Marcum though, lots of people here were miffed about the Twins passing and getting Pelfrey/Correia instead. Turns out Ryan was right on both accounts.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I think Ryan did just punt the season entirely. Of course he wouldn't say that openly when there are sales people whose livelihoods depended on a competitive team with offices in the same building. And he did overestimate Worely and Diamond (most of us did as well). He also expected Deduno to be healthy and he wasn't until June. And countless other smaller disappointments added up (Gibson). But I don't think he had a reasonable expectation of competing in 2013. And he knew it.
    I don't disagree with you. The Loveable Losers were a little more open and honest. They said roughly, they would not bow down to pressure from their fan base and press the fast forward button. That which they will receive, is well worth waiting for. King Theo and First Scout know to successfully rebuild you need a series of high draft picks.

  5. #45
    Great replies and discussion so far!

    Reading the replies makes me want to either assist or direct the debate further.

    I don't have the exact posters (sorry ... just remembering what I read for replies), but a poster mentioned how TR wasn't exactly thrilled with the options last year for SP on FA. I agree very much.

    I remember reading or hearing somewhere we had an 8 million dollar offer out to Joe Saunders, but he was to Seattle in hopes I think of winning better (didn't work out for him there and it wouldn't have worked here either). I didn't even get to Saunders on the comparison front, but Correia had a better season if I remember correctly.

    If our choices were McCarthy, Feldman, Saunders, Lannan, etc. of realistic SP who were going to sign here, can we blame TR for not bringing more of them here? What good would they have done? Okay so you get Correia, McCarthy, and Pelfrey (we probably don't bring in Pelfrey if we get McCarthy). McCarthy becomes our big acqusition last year ... what good does it do? He gets hurt, flames out, and we're even more upset.

    TR most likely looked at the options, shook his head, and said the best he can do is a couple of vets who hopefully can log innings. Nobody will ever say they are rebuilding ... especially in a newer stadium. However, we all knew it. TR needed another year to get the prospects closer and have the plan come together. Grienke wasn't coming here. If you wanted Sanchez, we'd be talking over 100 million and then some the Twins just won't spend (they didn't even spend north of 100 million this year so far on players). Even signing Edwin Jackson last year would have been too early. Removing those two and you have mediocre to poor to terrible.

    Who else was coming here last year outside of Correia that would have done anything for us? TR decided to roll the dice on hope by getting Meyer, May, and Worley. He figured Worley was on the right track. Worley was awful. I'm in the camp of hoping he can turn it around this year and join the rotation as a good pitcher. I hope he wins the number 5 spot and shows he can be a force. He needs at least one more audition before we cut bait.

    We all know Sano will be here at some point during the season. We know Sano will be part of the team for all of 2015. We know Meyer will probably at the very least be a September call-up and then with the team all of 2015. We know Buxton might be a September call-up and if he is, he's here in 2015. If he's not, he'll be here at some point in 2015. It all makes sense now to sign Nolasco and Hughes so they are well into their deals come 2015 and 2016 when we make a run. Many think we'll be bad next year ... I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet. I think we have some hope to at least play some meaninful games into August and maybe even September. I'm not saying playoffs, but Target Field won't be a dead zone come June. I think having Correia to join Nolasco and Hughes is going to help more than hurt us next year.

    In the end, TR was dealt a terrible hand last year to play. He made the best possible move he could with Correia. Correia may have been the big acqusition, but there are not a lot of names that turned out to be better.

    I also forgot to answer the Lohse question. There was a poster who challenged me. My argument Correia is better than Lohse is due to long term contract requirements and the draft pick the Brewers gave up to sign him. Lohse did have a better season, but not by that much to justify a longer deal and draft pick compensation for him. We only gave up money and two years for Correia. Therefore, I give Correia the nod.

    Let the discussion continue!

  6. #46
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    Ryan signed a player to be an innings eating mediocre pitcher. That is by wage scale what Correia was signed for. By what the OP mentioned in his piece, the question that should be asked is does Ryan deserve credit for not signing players? In the long list of signable players, it was more valuable to the Twins not to sign them than what he did sign. Consider the prevailing wisdom on the players signed so far this off season. Nolasco has a shot for a 5th guarenteed year. Hughes got a third year and to some extent a second. This is not what was predicted for these players. Hughes was a one year kind of contract with most queses. He got three. Ryan had to find a manner to overpay. Last year he wasn't willing to do that (Saunders). The fans will find out in a few years which way was better.
    Last edited by The Wise One; 12-02-2013 at 01:19 PM.

  7. #47
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Ryan signed a player to be an innings eating mediocre pitcher. That is by wage scale what Correia was signed for. By what the OP mentioned in his piece, the question that should be asked is does Ryan deserve credit for not signing players? In the long list of signable players, it was more valuable to the Twins not to sign them than what he did sign. Consider the prevailing wisdom on the players signed so far this off season. Nolasco has a shot for a 5th guarenteed year. Hughes got a third year and to some extent a second. This is not what was predicted for these players. Hughes was a one year kind of contract with most queses. He got three. Ryan had to find a manner to overpay. Last year he wasn't willing to do that (Saunders). The fans will find out in a few years which way was better.
    Well, by looking at things from last year:
    Saunders and Pelfrey turned out to be about the same, Marcum was performance wise similar up until the predictible injury.

    Pelfrey was $4m, Correia $4.5.

    Saunders $6.5m , Marcum $4m

    I think Ryan did quite well picking which player/contracts were the better deal. Saved $2m and got the better overall players.

  8. #48
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Looking back, Correia and Pelfrey did alright for what they got paid. The problem is that even with the signings, the Twins were still short on good pitchers. There were too many innings pitched by AAA guys. The Twins really could have used a couple of more good pitchers (e.g a couple of pitchers better than these two).

    Looking towards 2014, the Twins made the right move in signing a couple of starting pitchers (Nolasco and Hughes), but they lost Pelfrey (as of right now) and who knows if Deduno's shoulder is going to hold up, so they would be wise to sign one more pitcher. Either bring Pelfrey back or find someone else who can at least be serviceable.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Looking back, Correia and Pelfrey did alright for what they got paid. The problem is that even with the signings, the Twins were still short on good pitchers. There were too many innings pitched by AAA guys. The Twins really could have used a couple of more good pitchers (e.g a couple of pitchers better than these two).

    Looking towards 2014, the Twins made the right move in signing a couple of starting pitchers (Nolasco and Hughes), but they lost Pelfrey (as of right now) and who knows if Deduno's shoulder is going to hold up, so they would be wise to sign one more pitcher. Either bring Pelfrey back or find someone else who can at least be serviceable.
    Reider, I'd disagree with you on the third SP. When you look at it, we have the following:
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Correia
    ???????
    ???????

    To fill those two question marks, we have:
    Gibson
    Worley - out of options
    Diamond - out of options
    Albers - out of options (can someone please confirm this??)
    Johnson
    Duensing???
    Swarzak???
    De Vries (is he even around anymore??)

    I put Duensing and Swarzak in there because TR did say they should be prepared to start. I doubt they will and he'll most likely keep them in the bullpen.

    You think Gibson might end up getting one of the two, but we have to question if the Twins want to give up on Worley and Diamond. Both of them at least have had one recent good season at the MLB level. Also, you have to wonder if we want a left-handed starter in the rotation. The only one doing that outside of Duensing is Diamond and Albers.

    Personally, I'm not ready to cut the bait on either Diamond or Worley. If I were TR, I'd tender Duensing and trade him. He's becoming more expensive and wasn't as good last year. Let him go and let Diamond either make the team as a starter or put him in Duensing's bullpen role. As for Worley, I think be should be assured a spot to start out. If he can't make it, then let him go after May or June. Before then, let him see what he can do. He's young enough to rebound.

    Of course putting Diamond in the pen and letting Worley and Gibson into the rotation means we have an all RH staff. Probably not the best, but this is what was decided upon when signing Hughes and Nolasco as well as retaining Correia. Bringing back Pelfrey does nothing IMO unless he was left-handed.

    I would designate Albers for assignment and see what happens. I doubt a team will claim him. He can then be re-signed for Rochester to add depth and be an emergency call-up. You hopefully then retain a lefty.

    For the first part of the year, we then have:
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Correia
    Worley
    Gibson

    Diamond is in the pen. If an injury happens or one of the starters struggle, Diamond moves to the rotation and gives us the lefty.

    I don't think putting Gibson in the minors is going to be helpful at all. He's what .. 25 (maybe close to 26??). He doesn't need anymore conditioning. If he not MLB ready now, he'll never be. He needs a full season to show us what he can do and if he'll be a long term solution to a spot in the rotation.

    Nothing is going to be easy, but I do feel we now have enough in house options not to sign anyone else to take a spot.

  10. #50
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcphitman View Post
    Reider, I'd disagree with you on the third SP. When you look at it, we have the following:
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Correia
    ???????
    ???????

    To fill those two question marks, we have:
    Gibson
    Worley - out of options
    Diamond - out of options
    Albers - out of options (can someone please confirm this??)
    Johnson
    Duensing???
    Swarzak???
    De Vries (is he even around anymore??)

    For the first part of the year, we then have:
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Correia
    Worley
    Gibson

    Diamond is in the pen. If an injury happens or one of the starters struggle, Diamond moves to the rotation and gives us the lefty.

    I don't think putting Gibson in the minors is going to be helpful at all. He's what .. 25 (maybe close to 26??). He doesn't need anymore conditioning. If he not MLB ready now, he'll never be. He needs a full season to show us what he can do and if he'll be a long term solution to a spot in the rotation.

    Nothing is going to be easy, but I do feel we now have enough in house options not to sign anyone else to take a spot.
    I'm fine either way. The Twins don't need to sign another pitcher to prove to me that they are serious about improving the team. I'd be just fine if Gibson took the bull by the horns and showed that he's MLB ready. And Deduno has proven that he's good enough to pitch at the MLB level.

    I'm just curious how Worely is penciled into the rotation instead of Deduno? I'm actually curious as to why Deduno wasn't mentioned at all? If you don't think he will be healthy in 2014, that is my concern as well, but he proved that he's good enough to hold a roster spot if he is going to be healthy.

  11. This user likes Reider's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

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  12. #51
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    You can rest assured if Deduno is healthy the spot is his to lose in the rotation meaning he will leave spring training if healthy with the rotation spot. I wouldn't be too worried about loosing one of Diamond or Worely. I would be more concerned with making sure we have as many options available in spring for the rotation so if we loose Worely and Diamond in the spring if they dont make the team and Albers now cause we designate him then we loos several options or another way to put it if we loose Albers now we handcuff ourselves in the spring because we mostly have pitchers who are out of options available and must stay on the roster. of course we have Johnson who TR calls a better Diamond....., Darnell, and Gibson available. If we sign another starter it wont likely matter who we let go as long as we have a planned 6th and 7th starter.

  13. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Wait, the GM's job is to tank so he can pick up high draft picks?

    So, signing Correia was actually a bad move because the Twins should have aimed for even more losses?
    Well 1 more loss and we would have moved up in the draft a position ...so yes

  14. #53
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    Ok I will admitt I was wrong and Terry was right(did this on another form already)But then Terry needs to admitt he was wrong about the other 2 pretty darn good pitchers he signed.
    Pelfrey and Harden. So by being 1/3 we owe him an apoligy?

  15. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Ok I will admitt I was wrong and Terry was right(did this on another form already)But then Terry needs to admitt he was wrong about the other 2 pretty darn good pitchers he signed.
    Pelfrey and Harden. So by being 1/3 we owe him an apoligy?
    I would like to contract this for 2 reasons
    1) I think Terry just got lucky on this signing

    2)I think Kevin stepped up, If you look at his history He fades down the strecth, Even last year , Mid August he had an ERA of 4.30-4.40 and many thought , here we go again
    (and I have to admitt I was expecting to be able to say I told you so) But Mr. Correia stepped up and finished strong. If Terry would have been right about 2 out of the 3 he signed , then ,Yes I would appoligise and say he was right, But how did Pelfrey and Harden do?
    In free agent signing you need to do better then 1/3

  16. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Ok I will admitt I was wrong and Terry was right(did this on another form already)But then Terry needs to admitt he was wrong about the other 2 pretty darn good pitchers he signed.
    Pelfrey and Harden. So by being 1/3 we owe him an apoligy?
    You have failed to consider several things in the way you framed this up. For starters, Harden was a long-shot. You can't hardly count that one with equal weight. In addition, the descisions you make to pass can be the most important decisions of all. In other words, you also failed to consider the numerous option all of us thought were better that were actually worse or much worse.

    This discussion also tends to have a short-term focus. The context of the discussion has to extend to years 4 and 5 when signing top free agents. We would have improved in 2013 had we signed Sanchez. We might have lost 88-90 games instead of 96. That's great if Sanchez is still performing at a similar level in 2016-17 when there is a chance we could contend. As we know, this is very often not the case with FA SPs.

  17. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    You have failed to consider several things in the way you framed this up. For starters, Harden was a long-shot. You can't hardly count that one with equal weight. In addition, the descisions you make to pass can be the most important decisions of all. In other words, you also failed to consider the numerous option all of us thought were better that were actually worse or much worse.

    This discussion also tends to have a short-term focus. The context of the discussion has to extend to years 4 and 5 when signing top free agents. We would have improved in 2013 had we signed Sanchez. We might have lost 88-90 games instead of 96. That's great if Sanchez is still performing at a similar level in 2016-17 when there is a chance we could contend. As we know, this is very often not the case with FA SPs.
    Just going by Terrys words, He was going to sign 3 pretty darn good pitchers, well would you prefer I use Perez as 1 of the 3? still the same results

  18. #57
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    I would like to contract this for 2 reasons
    1) I think Terry just got lucky on this signing

    2)I think Kevin stepped up, If you look at his history He fades down the strecth, Even last year , Mid August he had an ERA of 4.30-4.40 and many thought , here we go again
    (and I have to admitt I was expecting to be able to say I told you so) But Mr. Correia stepped up and finished strong. If Terry would have been right about 2 out of the 3 he signed , then ,Yes I would appoligise and say he was right, But how did Pelfrey and Harden do?
    In free agent signing you need to do better then 1/3
    Come on.

    TR is lucky because Correia turned out better than we expected?

    Also, Harden was clearly just taking a no risk chance that everyone new had a small chance of working out so it's not fair to count that. Not to mention Pelfrey had a 4.50 ERA the last half of the season so I think that was actually not a bad signing either for the money.

  19. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
    Come on.

    TR is lucky because Correia turned out better than we expected?

    Also, Harden was clearly just taking a no risk chance that everyone new had a small chance of working out so it's not fair to count that. Not to mention Pelfrey had a 4.50 ERA the last half of the season so I think that was actually not a bad signing either for the money.
    We can' t have it both ways. We can't give Ryan credit for Correia, who was better than expected (but that topped out at about average) and then not be critical of the fact that he wasn't able to build anything but the worst rotation in baseball.

    I expected Correia to be worse, so I admit I was wrong. But many of us were correct about the results of the rotation as a whole. Correia was a success, but one in a season of many, many other failures, including a debacle at the CF position.
    Last edited by Alex; 12-02-2013 at 06:55 PM.

  20. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
    Come on.

    TR is lucky because Correia turned out better than we expected?

    Also, Harden was clearly just taking a no risk chance that everyone new had a small chance of working out so it's not fair to count that. Not to mention Pelfrey had a 4.50 ERA the last half of the season so I think that was actually not a bad signing either for the money.
    So a player who has a career 4.54 ERA over what? 10 season out performs his career stats and thats because the GM is smarter then everyone else?
    With out looking up the stats , in 2012 there were 77 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title,with enough innings pitched.Kevin was ranked #74.

    As for Mike Pelfrey , he had a couple of decent months but his September wasnt that great if I recall

  21. #60
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    So a player who has a career 4.54 ERA over what? 10 season out performs his career stats and thats because the GM is smarter then everyone else?
    With out looking up the stats , in 2012 there were 77 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title,with enough innings pitched.Kevin was ranked #74.

    As for Mike Pelfrey , he had a couple of decent months but his September wasnt that great if I recall
    You act like he had a huge dip in ERA, it was 4.18 last season. That's less than half a run.
    Granted, pitchers generally do better in the NL than the AL, but he's had 3 season better than last years so it's not really that shocking.

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