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Thread: Article: Minnesota Twins Agree To Deal With Ricky Nolasco

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Closer to 4/64 million me thinks MLB inflation is closer to 6-7%
    Could be, I was just basing that estimate on MLB average salaries, which have gone up from roughly $3 mil to $3.5 mil in that time.

  2. #82
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    40 man roster issues are the least of this teams problems

  3. #83
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    Berardino says the 2018 option vests with 400 combined innings in 2016-17.
    https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/st...94673323057153

    That sounds like a bargain of an option. If a guy throws that many innings over two years, the Twins would probably be interested in keeping him regardless of the forced option.

  4. #84
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Berardino says the 2018 option vests with 400 combined innings in 2016-17.
    https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/st...94673323057153

    That sounds like a bargain of an option. If a guy throws that many innings over two years, the Twins would probably be interested in keeping him regardless of the forced option.
    Yeah, that's pretty much a "well, duh" option. 400 innings in two seasons means he's at least close to league average or better.

  5. #85
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Best news in a long time.

  6. #86
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Yeah, that's pretty much a "well, duh" option. 400 innings in two seasons means he's at least close to league average or better.
    Not to mention healthy.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  7. #87
    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    Can somebody tell me what happened to Nolasco at the end of the season? He fell off a cliff at the end of September getting clobbered in three consecutive starts to the tune of 19 runs over 11 innings. He gave up another 3 runs in a 4-inning post-season start. Was he pitching hurt or something? Should I be concerned?

  8. #88
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Going to disagree with a couple points made here in different posts.

    While no ace to be sure, Nolasco's overall numbers, especially the past 3 seasons when he may have finally, really learned to pitch, coupled with being n some pretty bad teams, suggests he's better than a #4 starter on almost any team. I see a legit #3 with the POSSIBILITY of a 2 on a good defensive team with decent lineup IF YOU CONSIDER the past 3 season numbers. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But again, the past few seasons speak to me of a guy really learning what it is to be a pitcher now.

    Plus, 31 at the start of the season puts him in prime years as there is a different scale to measure the growth of a SP vs just a hard thrower vs a position player.

    I also take a small issue with the Twins defense over the next season or two. If the Twins sign a vet C, and I think it's a foregone conclusion we will, the names we are tied to are solid defensively. If we don't make the big splash of Salt or AJ, which I Think IS a good possibility, we might even sign two to give Pinto a little more time. Mauer will be solid to good a 1B as early as this season. Dozier is the real deal with the glove and will only get better with more play. Escobar is excellent as is Floriman with the glove, giving us a strong, young, and improving keystone combo. Arcia is young and needs improvement, but is fairly athletic with a good arm, s young, and will improve. The key is Hicks just hitting well enough to hold on to CF while providing speed and power and sort of learning and improving on the job. If so, then Pressley and/or Matro in left gives us a pretty good defense. Willingham is going to be playing more and more at DH with a little LF accounting for some shifts. And Molitor is on board now to help his transition.

    Some combination of TO BE SIGNED, Nolasco, Correia, Gibson, Deduno, Worley, Diamond and eventually Meyer is the best rotation we've had in some time, with a potentially excellent defense behind them, and excellent bullpen backing them up.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    While no ace to be sure, Nolasco's overall numbers, especially the past 3 seasons when he may have finally, really learned to pitch, coupled with being n some pretty bad teams, suggests he's better than a #4 starter on almost any team. I see a legit #3 with the POSSIBILITY of a 2 on a good defensive team with decent lineup IF YOU CONSIDER the past 3 season numbers. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But again, the past few seasons speak to me of a guy really learning what it is to be a pitcher now.
    Nolasco is a #3 starter on most teams that didn't make the playoffs. On playoff bound teams he is a #4 starter. I compared Nolasco to every playoff teams' #3 and #4 starters for 2013. I looked at ERA-, xFIP-, SIERA, fWAR and rWAR; essentially the 5 best metrics available. Of playoff bound teams he was a #4 starter on 7 out of 10 teams. He was a #3 starter for the A's and wouldn't find the rotation for the Tigers or Indians.

    TLDR: Nolasco is a #3 starter on 1 playoff team, a #4 on 7 teams and doesn't start for 2. To me that's all that matters, how does he compare to teams going to the playoffs.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Nolasco is a #3 starter on most teams that didn't make the playoffs. On playoff bound teams he is a #4 starter. I compared Nolasco to every playoff teams' #3 and #4 starters for 2013. I looked at ERA-, xFIP-, SIERA, fWAR and rWAR; essentially the 5 best metrics available. Of playoff bound teams he was a #4 starter on 7 out of 10 teams. He was a #3 starter for the A's and wouldn't find the rotation for the Tigers or Indians.

    TLDR: Nolasco is a #3 starter on 1 playoff team, a #4 on 7 teams and doesn't start for 2. To me that's all that matters, how does he compare to teams going to the playoffs.
    How do Tanaka, Garza, Santana, and Jimenez compare, just to put things in perspective? You realize most look at scouting, make-up, and stats before assigning a number? As I have previously posted, he's a solid #3. I'm sure you know there are roughly 40 1's and 2's combined in all of baseball.
    Last edited by howieramone; 11-30-2013 at 05:22 AM.

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    How do Tanaka, Garza, Santana, and Jimenez compare, just to put things in perspective? You realize most look at scouting, make-up, and stats before assigning a number? As I have previously posted, he's a solid #3. I'm sure you know there are roughly 40 1's and 2's combined in all of baseball.
    It would be great if you would post the Twins' Scouting and Character reports. Then we could all have a clearer picture. Since I don't have those I use the information at hand. That information says that Nolasco is a #3 starter on non-playoff teams and a #4 starter on those heading to the post season.

    Since Tanaka has no MLB statistics I don't know how he compares. Here is a case where his scouting report is pretty much all that matters. As for Nolasco, Garza, Jimenez and Santana here you go:

    Where do these pitchers fit into a playoff rotation?
    Name
    #3 #4 BP1
    Ricky Nolasco 1 8 2
    Matt Garza 1 7 3
    Ubaldo Jimenez 4 9 1
    Ervin Santana 4/52 9 1
    1Does not make rotation. Pitches from bullpen.
    2Santana and Cingrani tied. Cingrani had better SIERA and ERA- while Santana was better by both WARs. They tied for xFIP- at 93.


    Jimenez and Santana would be #3 starters in about half of the rotations since there are 10 teams that make the playoffs. Garza and Nolasco are both #4 starters. Nobody makes the Tigers' rotation. Each of these pitchers would be #3 starters, at least, on non-playoff teams.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    It would be great if you would post the Twins' Scouting and Character reports. Then we could all have a clearer picture. Since I don't have those I use the information at hand. That information says that Nolasco is a #3 starter on non-playoff teams and a #4 starter on those heading to the post season.

    Since Tanaka has no MLB statistics I don't know how he compares. Here is a case where his scouting report is pretty much all that matters. As for Nolasco, Garza, Jimenez and Santana here you go:

    Where do these pitchers fit into a playoff rotation?
    Name
    #3 #4 BP1
    Ricky Nolasco 1 8 2
    Matt Garza 1 7 3
    Ubaldo Jimenez 4 9 1
    Ervin Santana 4/52 9 1
    1Does not make rotation. Pitches from bullpen.
    2Santana and Cingrani tied. Cingrani had better SIERA and ERA- while Santana was better by both WARs. They tied for xFIP- at 93.


    Jimenez and Santana would be #3 starters in about half of the rotations since there are 10 teams that make the playoffs. Garza and Nolasco are both #4 starters. Nobody makes the Tigers' rotation. Each of these pitchers would be #3 starters, at least, on non-playoff teams.
    Is this just using 2013 data?

    Shouldn't the Twins care more about projecting 2014?

    I would guess any projection method would use the last three years while factoring in age.

    If the analysis was projection based, would the conclusion be the same?

    The only projections I have seen are from steamer. Nolasco is projected for 2.6, Garza 2.3, Jimenez 2.1 and Santana 1.8 WAR.

  13. #93
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Thanks, Oxtung.

  14. #94
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    TLDR: Nolasco is a #3 starter on 1 playoff team, a #4 on 7 teams and doesn't start for 2. To me that's all that matters, how does he compare to teams going to the playoffs.
    I think this kind of slotting and comparison is foolhardy--you're getting ahead of yourself if you're thinking about playoff matchups. Our rotation should be a lot different by the time the team's young talent emerges, as will other team's rotations.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Is this just using 2013 data?

    Shouldn't the Twins care more about projecting 2014?

    I would guess any projection method would use the last three years while factoring in age.

    If the analysis was projection based, would the conclusion be the same?

    The only projections I have seen are from steamer. Nolasco is projected for 2.6, Garza 2.3, Jimenez 2.1 and Santana 1.8 WAR.
    Yes that is just 2013 data. There isn't a good way that I know of to aggregate multiple years of data into xFIP, FIP and SIERA.

    For my purposes I don't think projections would be applicable. We don't know which teams are going to make the playoffs in 2014. Many teams rotations are not filled out at this point and, perhaps most importantly, projections (I'm guessing here) don't handle mid-season callups particularly well and yet we're seeing that they have significant impacts on rotations during the playoffs. Would STEAMER have predicted that Michael Wacha would be the Cardinals #3 starter in the playoffs?

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I think this kind of slotting and comparison is foolhardy--you're getting ahead of yourself if you're thinking about playoff matchups. Our rotation should be a lot different by the time the team's young talent emerges, as will other team's rotations.
    You're misunderstanding my point. I'm not talking about how the Twins will matchup in some hypothetical series. I'm showing that to even make the playoffs the Twins need three pitchers that are better than Ricky Nolasco. I'm trying to get people to understand that while he is a solid pitcher and has a spot on a playoff rotation, he isn't the front of the rotation help the Twins need.

    The Twins need 3 pitchers that are better than Nolasco and hoping that all three of Gibson, Meyer and May turn into front of the rotation starters is foolhardy. There has to be another acquisition of some variety (or two). If there isn't then the Twins are just biding time until Stewart, Berrios, Eades, Jorge, Thorpe and Gonsalves arrive in 2016+ and then more time while they get acclimated to MLB. I'm not in favor of waiting until 2017 to make a run at a championship. Are you?

  17. #97
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    It doesn't matter what these pitchers did last year. It matters what they can be reasonably expected to do next year.

    Is is it reasonable to project a Nolasco as a number three starter on a playoff team? Maybe not. I am not sure that the other pitchers listed above would project better.

    It really even takes more than an averaged projection. A guy like Jimenez might have a 40% chance of being very good and a 60% chance of being awful. His steamer projection may blend that somewhere in the middle. Any team considering signing him would be irresponsible to project based on 2013 only as they assess how he might fit in a playoff rotation.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    It doesn't matter what these pitchers did last year. It matters what they can be reasonably expected to do next year.

    Is is it reasonable to project a Nolasco as a number three starter on a playoff team? Maybe not. I am not sure that the other pitchers listed above would project better.

    It really even takes more than an averaged projection. A guy like Jimenez might have a 40% chance of being very good and a 60% chance of being awful. His steamer projection may blend that somewhere in the middle. Any team considering signing him would be irresponsible to project based on 2013 only as they assess how he might fit in a playoff rotation.
    Look we're veering way off topic here so I'm only going to say that projections are based off of past data. There is nothing more critical to a projection than the previous seasons statistics.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    It would be great if you would post the Twins' Scouting and Character reports. Then we could all have a clearer picture. Since I don't have those I use the information at hand. That information says that Nolasco is a #3 starter on non-playoff teams and a #4 starter on those heading to the post season.

    Since Tanaka has no MLB statistics I don't know how he compares. Here is a case where his scouting report is pretty much all that matters. As for Nolasco, Garza, Jimenez and Santana here you go:

    Where do these pitchers fit into a playoff rotation?
    Name
    #3 #4 BP1
    Ricky Nolasco 1 8 2
    Matt Garza 1 7 3
    Ubaldo Jimenez 4 9 1
    Ervin Santana 4/52 9 1
    1Does not make rotation. Pitches from bullpen.
    2Santana and Cingrani tied. Cingrani had better SIERA and ERA- while Santana was better by both WARs. They tied for xFIP- at 93.


    Jimenez and Santana would be #3 starters in about half of the rotations since there are 10 teams that make the playoffs. Garza and Nolasco are both #4 starters. Nobody makes the Tigers' rotation. Each of these pitchers would be #3 starters, at least, on non-playoff teams.
    Good compilations, but I have a question: How come the total number of teams listed for Nolasco and Garza listed is 11, but there are 14 (or 15) teams totaled for Jimenez and Santana. Why?

    Would ANYONE on the list be a number two starter on any playoff team?

    On another topic, the Twins rotation – and lineup – would need to not only overtake Kansas City to make the playoffs, but Cleveland and/or Detroit as well. That's a tall order for 2014.

  20. #100
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    The twins won't make the playoffs next year, so get the knot out of your shorts. This is a process, "and there are no shortcuts...".

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