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Thread: Article: What? The Twins considering Mike Pelfrey again?

  1. #21
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    There should be no fall back plan. Sign big or sign no one.

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    Kwak (11-29-2013)

  3. #22
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    Totally agree!

    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I believe I commented not his here before, but it may be worth saying again.

    Mike Pelfrey had a FIP much better than his ERA. There is a group on pitchers that do that on a consistent basis. One characteristic is that their numbers with runners on base are poorer than with the bases empty. Is this bad luck or a skill? The skill part comes in being able to pitch equally well from the stretch. The ability to hold runners on. The ability to work quickly enough to aid your defense.

    FIP only counts strikeouts and walks. It doesn't care in which situations they come. It doesn't matter to FIP that Pelfrey's k/bb ratio is much poorer with runners on base.

    Kevin Correia is the polar opposite. He actually has done better with runners on base his last two seasons. He is very good at holding runners on. FIP doesn't care about this.

    Maybe it's not a skill. Maybe it's just random. Maybe the only thing pitchers control is strike outs, walks and home runs regardless of game situation. Maybe not.

    If pitching with runners on base is a skill, is it possible that Pelfrey can have the peripherals of a number 3 pitcher without really being one?
    Very well put. Game situation stats have to be the next frontier of sabremetrics. The term "luck" gets thrown out on this blog to explain discrepancies from predicted outcomes far too often in defense of metrics, but truly, game situations matter. Statistics should try to explain variance and limit there effects. Running FIP with runners on, risp, 3rd x through a line up etc. would give a much better read on where and why there may be some deviation from an expected outcome.

    Actually, one of my big problems with Moneyball in general was a lack of situational analysis. (ie stealing/bunting will reduce run totals by season's end, but it may still be your best chance to win a tie game in the 9th?)

  4. #23
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    I don't want Pelfrey back but I agree he could bounce back. My biggest hold up is with the report that the money is far apart. You would have to think that he is then looking for what, $6-8 million per year? That's the reported payout for Hughes. It's likely just a tick under what it will take to get Kazmir. Others keep mentioning Baker. Feldman is probably in that neighborhood. I'm not high on Feldman, but I'd much prefer Kazmir/Hughes/Baker, so I'd hope they'd go that route.

    Someone might argue they Twins could get a Kazmir/Hughes AND re-up Pelfrey. I guess you could, but I'm hoping for another legit secondary pitcher and then taking a low-risk/high-reward flier on a Haladay, Santana, Neimann, Floyd or maybe Volquez.

  5. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Scott Baker is a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. I don't care if he pitched to guys up, out, down, or whatever... His results are better than Pelfrey, and that's what matters.
    I'm not a Baker fan. One of the most mentally weak players I've ever seen. I'll take pelfrey over him every time. Unfortunately there's no stat that measures mental toughness. Gotta use the eye test for that one.
    Last edited by Marta Shearing; 11-29-2013 at 10:44 AM.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I'm not a Baker fan. One of the most mentally weak players I've ever seen. I'll take pelfrey over him every time. Unfortunately there's no stat that measures mental toughness. Gotta use the eye test for that one.
    Funny how he's posted multiple seasons better than anything Pelfrey has done in his career, despite being so mentally weak.

    Baker is a better pitcher. Period. He strikes out more, walks less, gives up fewer runs and hits, and goes deeper into games.

    A healthy Mike Pelfrey is a #4 pitcher, maybe a #3 on a bad team. A healthy Scott Baker is a #3 in an average year, a #2 when he's really rolling.

    I will never understand why Minnesota fans didn't appreciate what they had in Baker.

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    ChiTownTwinsFan (11-29-2013)

  8. #26
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I will never understand why Minnesota fans didn't appreciate what they had in Baker.
    Because they're consumed with sports radio talk rather than actual analysis.

    If this team got Hughes and Baker along with Nolasco, I'd be one happy little Twins fan.

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Because they're consumed with sports radio talk rather than actual analysis.

    If this team got Hughes and Baker along with Nolasco, I'd be one happy little Twins fan.
    Assuming the injuries haven't diminished his stuff I'd love to have Baker back.

  10. #28
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    Not only does Pelfrey have no upside, he's absolutely painful to watch. 30 seconds between pitches and constant finger licking.

    I will most definitely skip every fifth Twins game if he re-signs.

  11. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Highabove's Avatar
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    Why would Baker want to come back to the Twins? Both Ryan and Gardinhire made fools out themselves insinuating that Baker was unwilling to play through a little pain.

  12. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Because they're consumed with sports radio talk rather than actual analysis.
    I was a die-hard fan until they got swept out of the playoffs again in 2010. I probably missed a handful of Baker's starts his entire Twins career. I'm qualified to make an informed opinion on him. I saw a pitcher who benefited from playing in the weak Central with the unbalanced schedule. I saw a pitcher who cracked any time there was pressure involved. Even 163 against Detroit he pitched well when they were behind until the Twins scored a couple runs. Then Scotty went out for the top of the inning and gave it right back. Baker and pressure were never a good mix.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 11-29-2013 at 12:22 PM. Reason: Didn't need the capitalized first word!

  13. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Highabove View Post
    Why would Baker want to come back to the Twins? Both Ryan and Gardinhire made fools out themselves insinuating that Baker was unwilling to play through a little pain.
    Baker cried wolf a few too many times.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Because they're consumed with sports radio talk rather than actual analysis.

    If this team got Hughes and Baker along with Nolasco, I'd be one happy little Twins fan.
    A happy little Twins fan is much better than a sad panda.

    I'd be happy with this too.

  15. #33
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Scott Baker is a good man and a good pitcher. He would be cheaper and likely better than Mike Pelfrey. The Twins soured on him because he refused to pitch like Anderson wanted. His out pitch is a high fastball. Without it, he's a 5 ERA pitcher. With it, he's a 4 ERA pitcher. It seems his pitching coach would rather have a 5 ERA pitcher who keeps the ball down than a 4 ERA pitcher who uses his out pitch. For this reason, I highly doubt he signs with the Twins. And it's probably for the best because I'm eager to see him have a healthy season for a team who appreciates a guy who gets outs however he can.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I was a die-hard fan until they got swept out of the playoffs again in 2010. I probably missed a handful of Baker's starts his entire Twins career. I'm qualified to make an informed opinion on him. I saw a pitcher who benefited from playing in the weak Central with the unbalanced schedule. I saw a pitcher who cracked any time there was pressure involved. Even 163 against Detroit he pitched well when they were behind until the Twins scored a couple runs. Then Scotty went out for the top of the inning and gave it right back. Baker and pressure were never a good mix.
    Except the stats don't back your opinion. His career splits against the central teams have half of them being below his career ERA (CLE and KCR)and the other two above his career ERA (CHW and DET). The "cracked under pressure" notion is subjective.

    His biggest issue was his inability to stay on the mound due to injury. But when healthy, he was a vastly underrated pitcher by this fanbase.

  17. #35
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    I was a die-hard fan until they got swept out of the playoffs again in 2010. I probably missed a handful of Baker's starts his entire Twins career. I'm qualified to make an informed opinion on him. I saw a pitcher who benefited from playing in the weak Central with the unbalanced schedule. I saw a pitcher who cracked any time there was pressure involved. Even 163 against Detroit he pitched well when they were behind until the Twins scored a couple runs. Then Scotty went out for the top of the inning and gave it right back. Baker and pressure were never a good mix.
    As opposed to Mike Pelfrey, who didn't benefit at all from pitching in the national league or Citi Field... And was still worse than Scott Baker in pretty much every way one pitcher can be worse than another.

  18. #36
    I'll admit in 2011 it looked like he had finally completely figured things out, pitching the best baseball of his career, then he tore up his elbow, which inexplicably didnt show up on the mri. If i remember right they didnt find the tear until they cut him open.

  19. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    As opposed to Mike Pelfrey, who didn't benefit at all from pitching in the national league or Citi Field... And was still worse than Scott Baker in pretty much every way one pitcher can be worse than another.
    Well we'll see which one pitches better in 2014.

  20. #38
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    Without Baker, the Twins don't get to game 163 in 2008 or 2009. In terms of WAR, he was the best starting pitcher on those good teams. Over a 5 year period (2007-2011), he average 3.1 WAR per year. That is probably greater than the sum of WAR from the starters in either of the last two years.

    If the Twins believe Mike Pelfrey is capable of being the best pitcher on a good team, they need to sign him soon.

    Note: I used BR WAR figures. His fangraph average for the 5 years is slightly greater.

  21. #39
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    [Baker] would be cheaper and likely better than Mike Pelfrey.
    I'm not sure we can judge with any kind of confidence what Baker's performance will be, much less, the likelihood of that performance.

    The reason the Twins prefer Pelfrey is that he's been healthy more recently and--arguably--has been more effective than his numbers, and improved as the season wore on. Baker would be fine as a buy low candidate, like Santana or Floyd; but all of those guys have serious questions about how many innings they can actually pitch, and that they woudl pitch what little innings they could any better than Pelfrey is a murky proposition at best.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 11-29-2013 at 01:12 PM.

  22. #40
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Well we'll see which one pitches better in 2014.
    That isn't a fair comparison. Baker is going to be cheaper with higher upside. Hughes should be taken over Pelfrey and Baker should be signed as a cheaper, riskier gamble.

    Pelfrey may indeed pitch better, the problem is will he pitch anywhere close to earning the salary and roster spot, they'll give him. This is a team that should be targeting high ceilings, not high floors.

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