11-26-2013, 11:25 PM #181
- Liked 44 Times in 27 Posts
- Blog Entries
The playing time piece is not relevant. A starting pitcher will be in 30 some games, but you don't see that used to factor what salary they deserve. 120 games isn't unreasonable for a catcher on a team with a decent backup, as has been the case. The WS bit isn't relevant either. If the Red Sox had lost so much faith as you're suggesting, why have they made him significant offers (per multiple reports)?
Throwing out terms from statistics isn't quite as intimidating as you may think. And, for the record, I prefer JMP, SAS, and Tableau... but no, I won't be meeting you on SABR.
11-27-2013, 12:58 AM #182
How many runs can be saved by pitch framing and sequencing? If it is as significant as the Rays, Pirates and a Yankees believe, the Twins should be looking to improve their defense at catching.
If the catcher has little impact on runs scored, then there is little to distinguish Salty from Doumit.
We will learn a little about how the a Twins value defense at catcher as they build the roster this winter. It certainly has not been a priority in the previous two years. Maybe it shouldn't be.
11-27-2013, 01:00 AM #183
In re: to the World Series bit.
Let's not pretend Farrell didn't do a ton of weird things in the playoffs/world series in regards to his lineup:
1. Pinch hitting Brandon Workman a pitcher...in the world series...in a big spot...with Mike Napoli on the bench.
2.Playing Gomes over Nava for no real reason.
It really didn't matter who was behind the plate for the Red Sox, they won the world series because Papi basically was in full beast mode.
11-27-2013, 01:20 AM #184
- Liked 67 Times in 50 Posts
- Blog Entries
Dave, check your inbox and delete stuff to get my message.
11-27-2013, 08:21 AM #185
- Liked 772 Times in 423 Posts
- Blog Entries
That doesn't mean Saltalamacchia is a bad player. He seems to be decent defensively and that "empty" OPS is still pretty high for a catcher. But I don't know if that's what the Twins need in 2015 and 2016, which is why I'm hesitant about signing him. Again, like Ervin Santana, I hate signing a guy coming off what looks like a career year, going into a ballpark that might hurt him a little, adding even more strikeouts to a strikeout-happy lineup, and stacking an already lefty-dominant lineup even more to that side of the plate.
In short, I think there are better options out there for 2014 and beyond. Not at catcher, but that's okay with me... If Pinto collapses in 2014, reevaluate the position and go from there in 2015. I think a stop-gap catcher like Navarro is just fine for what will probably be a very bad 2014 squad. Put that money into pitching, pick up a couple of stop-gap position players, and let it ride.
11-27-2013, 09:32 AM #186
As mentioned above, Saltalamacchia is a 28-year-old switch-hitting catcher who has hit 55 home run over the last three years with the Red Sox (which explains why this report is coming from a Boston newspaper). His OPS over those 3 years is .763, which would've been second on the Twins last year. Overall, those numbers about match what Ryan Doumit did back in 2012, which is very solid.
3. Playing time is not relevant? Well, again, it was on a dependent player vs team salary equation. Not stand alone. We want Joe Mauer to play. He played 75g at catcher, 113 total, 503 PA. Is that the best use of his $23M salary for the Twins? If he only plays and catches 120g this year? Salty has two 120 game seasons and three over 100 g on his resume of 7 major league seasons. These are guaranteed contracts and the Twins don't have the luxury other teams do. Playing time matters. He hasn't even met one full season of plate appearances. It matters. We agree to disagree. That's fine. If one catcher is 5-10% better (choose whatever metric you want) than the other catcher and averages 70-120 g a year and the other catcher isn't quite as good but gives me 120-145 g a year, I'll take the guy who plays 120-145 g year every time.
4. K%. It matters. I want a guy who can make contact with the ball. If you can do a .280/.360/.480 or better stat line, I can maybe handle 30% K rate. But that's not Salty. Take whatever advanced metrics you want or simple ones. If you can't make contact...when I need to push a runner over or get a sac fly...and I have to pinch hit for you because you aren't a sure thing to make contact? That's an extra roster spot...once again, playing time is relevant. If I need 2 players (Terry Ryan has reiterated this a lot in the platoon questions) for one position...what does that say about you? I do need 2 catchers, but do I need a 3rd on the roster type of thinking.
5. There's a good number of reports the Red Sox are after AJ, too. Just reports at this time. I don't have insider knowledge. One is perhaps a smoke screen for the other to bring the price down to see who wants to play in Boston.
6. The World Series isn't relevant? I believe it is. Kirk Gibson, hurt leg and all, was put in the game even though he couldn't walk. 1988 World Series. Salty was a healthy scratch. 4 out of 6 games. Do advanced metrics give the favor to Ross as a hitter or receiver? Or were the matchups too savory for Salty? Wacha Wacha Wacha. Does Don Mattingly make the HOF if he has Kirby Puckett's post season record and performance? Does Kirby make the HOF if he doesn't have his post season heroics?
11-27-2013, 09:36 AM #187
I'm hoping for Dioneer Navarro. 1-2 years, $3-$4m per. Stuart Turner made an appearance in AA last year. We drafted 2 other catchers. Because they don't play a whole lot of games and the yet to be determined value of Pinto - I don't see Free Agency spending being a place where it should be a high priority to spend a lot, e.g. Salty.
11-27-2013, 09:45 AM #188
11-27-2013, 09:46 AM #189
If you want to give him 2 million to be your backup or whatever, fine, but don't expect anything out of him, and at that point Pinto better be able to be the everyday guy both offensively (not as worried) and defensively (very worried) otherwise the position is a disaster and you are in the same or worse place heading into next off-season with likely less options.
Frankly Salty and AJ are vastly superior options to Navarro.
11-27-2013, 09:52 AM #190
- Liked 772 Times in 423 Posts
- Blog Entries
Don't get me wrong, I don't like Navarro... I view him merely as a stop-gap while banking on the continued progression of Pinto.
11-27-2013, 03:00 PM #191
This is from BaseballReference.com. I changed the PB and WP to per game. The rest show raw data totals, some stats that BR puts in from Baseball Info Solutions and BaseballProjection.com.
Fielding % they are tied for their career. All other defensive categories, Navarro is superior.
Range Factor, Range Factor per 9, Range Factor per Game, CS%, Total Zone Fielding, BIS Defensive Runs Above Avg, etc. Everything.
I guess the statistic where Salty is better is the pitch framing. I don't honestly really think pitch framing is that big of a factor to the control/command of the pitcher. Even so, I'll yield Pitch Framing without any argument.
Fielding statistics for Navarro vs. Saltalamacchia:
Light blue indicates the advantage. Light purple is a tie. Technically if you take it out to 100,000ths, Saltalamacchia wins. .98947 to .98945. So basically one more PO for Navarro and he'd be ahead, it was that close.
Some of the full definitions below of the more 'advanced' stuff that BaseballReference included in the stats pages.
Baseball Stats Key.jpg
Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-27-2013 at 03:07 PM.
11-27-2013, 04:15 PM #192
Pitch framing is essential to the command and control pitcher. Those pitchers need to live on the perimeter of the strike zone. I illustrated games earlier this year where the Twins and Doumit were not getting calls in the bottom quarter of the strike where the other team was getting calls. Same umpire. One game it might have been 6 of 7 pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone were called balls.
If a control pitcher can't get strikes called at the bottom of the strike zone they have no choice but pitch up in the zone. Getting hit hard follows.
In this particular game, Gardy in his post game conference said that our pitcher needs do a better job of keeping the ball down. I so badly wanted to hear him say that our catcher needs to do a better job of receiving the low strike without his head bobbing all over the place.
Doumit is the worst pitch framer in baseball. Mauer gets extra high strikes but has trouble at the bottom of the zone. The reports on Pinto were not encouraging in Max Marchi's look at minor league catching.
The best framers have been signed already. Salty is the only above average one left. If he really is skilled in the area, he doesn't need to hit much to be an asset.
11-27-2013, 04:57 PM #193
Do you get the feel that the Twins staff (and maybe other staffs in general) aren't doing much coaching on the pitch framing?
I could see where Mauer, being a full 6'5" would make it naturally tough for any ump to call the low strikes.
I know the research might not go back that far, but does it stretch to guys like Pudge Rodriguez?
It seens Ryan Hanigan is available after just signing a contract with the Reds 3yr/$4M.
11-27-2013, 05:16 PM #194
11-27-2013, 05:37 PM #195
- Liked 46 Times in 23 Posts
- Blog Entries
I'd love to get my greasy hands on Hanigan. He was terrible last year but did have a BABIP of .216. Hanigan was an extremely underrated player from 2009-2012. If the Twins are serious about pursuing Homer Bailey, getting Hanigan thrown in would be a monster coup.Works on contingency? No, money down!
Kevin Slowey was Framed!
11-29-2013, 11:45 AM #196
- Liked 132 Times in 92 Posts
- Blog Entries
11-29-2013, 01:22 PM #197
This user likes jorgenswest's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:
12-03-2013, 09:00 AM #198
12-03-2013, 09:21 AM #199
- Liked 282 Times in 182 Posts
- Blog Entries
At 28, he's just entering his prime as a catcher. They could sign him and Garza at this point with the remaining money (around $25 mil). I see no reason not to do this."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
12-03-2013, 02:01 PM #200
I guess I would ask you this:
Would you pay $10M per season for what Morneau did last season?
That's what Salty will give you. That's .740 OPS. area. Or that 108-118 OPS+.
Morneau is a better than average 1B per range factor and fielding %.
Salty is worse than the average catcher per range factor, CS %, and fielding %
Mauer has a better fielding % and CS% than the league average Catcher. But worse range factor.
The Red Sox have $25M more to spend on contracts than 2013 with the new TV contracts.
Ellsbury cost $9M in 2013...lets just get outlandish and say he gets $25M and the Red Sox give it to him.
Currently they only have $88M contributed towards the 2014 Budget (before AJ signing).
That said, they could have easily afforded Salty at 3yr $36M without a bump in the road. Salty made $4.5M in 2013. So $8M raise.
But they didn't sign him.
They're other/backup catcher is going to be 37. Their 'next' catching prospect is only in AA...great defender.
MLB.com has him #15 in Boston Red Sox top 20 Prospects.
Bleacher Report, after the 2013 season didn't even have him in the top 10.
That said, the Josmil Pinto is often in the Twins top 10. A deeper, more talented farm system.
As seen in Minor League Ball (John Sickels - worked as Researcher for Bill James) and Baseball Prospectus (Jason Parks)
So...as much crap as Twins fans seem to give Pinto as being hopeless, the Red Sox, who had Salty, know his body of work...and have subpar catching prospects (according to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, etc etc)...and plenty of money to pay Salty.
They let Salty go.
No one believes me, but you don't sit a 'top catcher' for 4 out of the 6 World Series games for a guy hitting .213 who doesn't show much better defensive factors.
Then to reinforce it they signed another 37 year old catcher.