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Thread: Article: Twins Chasing Top Catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia?

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

    It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.
    You should actually check his splits before leaping to conclusions.

  2. #102
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You should actually check his splits before leaping to conclusions.
    Uh, I did.

    2013 LHB OPS: .873
    2013 RHB OPS: .628

    2013 Home OPS: .836
    2013 Road OPS: .770

    That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.

  3. This user likes Brock Beauchamp's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    PseudoSABR (11-26-2013)

  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    www.fangraphs.com

    Salty is a much different player than he was in Texas, also I don't really care about a small sample size in the playoffs.
    I use fangraphs all the time...

    But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric.

    All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

    The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

    He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

    And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

    There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

    If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 09:46 AM.

  5. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Uh, I did.

    2013 LHB OPS: .873
    2013 RHB OPS: .628

    2013 Home OPS: .836
    2013 Road OPS: .770

    That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.
    Fenway isn't some kind of hitter's paradise for lefties so there probably wouldn't be that much of an effect. His home/road OPS's (3 yrs) don't show a scary split either.

    Additionally you could look at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/deta...62&type=hitter

    10 of his 14 HR's (19 out of 25 in 2012) would have been HR's in 20+ parks in baseball by their estimation. I will take their estimates over your WAG.

    It seems like most of the arguments against Salty are not actually factually based. We are talking about an easy .700+ catcher that deserves to be behind the plate (Doumit absolutely does not). If somebody prefers A.J. then that's fine but I'm just hoping they bring in somebody and 3/30 won't even make a dent into the available budget to find a starting pitcher or two.

  6. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Uh, I did.

    2013 LHB OPS: .873
    2013 RHB OPS: .628

    2013 Home OPS: .836
    2013 Road OPS: .770

    That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.
    Did Thome's power numbers struggle at Target Field, or are we not allowed to make comparisons to Thome, the lumberjack.

  7. #106
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hartzy34 View Post
    I'm a big believer that a guy is at his athletic peak between the ages of 28 - 32.
    I'm in that range and my body pains would love to tell you it was earlier than that.

  8. #107
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

    The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

    He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

    And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

    There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

    If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.
    Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

    Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

    If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.

  9. #108
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

    Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

    If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.
    Agreed, i'm not 100% against letting Pinto take the reigns, but that is setting yourself up for a huge let down. This would be eerily similar to the risk of giving the CF job to Hicks last year without a back-up plan. (Although the back-up plan Mastro, got injured).

    A: Pinto/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit
    B: Pierzynski/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
    C: Salty/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
    D: Navarro/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
    E: Pinto/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit

    Pinto needs to catch "everyday" regardless. If they sign a catcher, I would put a lot of money Pinto is in AAA catching everyday. If were going to sign a catcher, wouldn't you rather have it be the best guy? I'd take option C, 10 out of 10 times. Does anyone else see any other way this could go?

    (BTW, It'd be either Herrmann or Fryer for those jobs, Doumit as the 3rd string catcher.)
    Last edited by twinscowboysbulls; 11-26-2013 at 10:35 AM.

  10. #109
    Pinto should make the team and catch 75% of the games. That wouldnt be stunting his growth. There's nothing more for him to prove in the minors.

  11. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    I use fangraphs all the time...

    But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric.

    All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.

    The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.

    He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.

    And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.

    There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.

    If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.
    They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

    And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

    He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

    As per Fangraphs:
    in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)
    Doumit's was negative 12.9
    In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)
    Doumit's was negative 7.9
    In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)


    What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better

  12. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Dave's argument in favor of Salty has been repeated multiple times as based on his improvements. We all know he wasn't a stud when he hit MLB -- which are your memories of him in Texas. If you don't think it's reasonable for a player to improve, then continue on your war path against Salty.

    Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).

    If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.

    When I see the advanced stats...Salty isn't very good.

    Which advanced stats are you referring to?

    The Boston Red Sox, the kind of advanced stats, started David Ross over Salty in 4 of the 6 games that mattered most.

    People say 'advanced stats' but fail to show them. Makes no sense. I give you, Bill James (advanced stats guru) & The World Series Champions, The Boston Red Sox.

  13. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

    And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

    He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

    As per Fangraphs:
    in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)
    Doumit's was negative 12.9
    In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)
    Doumit's was negative 7.9
    In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)


    What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better

    Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year.

    Those are the best numbers in MLB for September (the sample size he was in).

    Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career.

    Pinto is 1 for 1.

    And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.

  14. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Pinto should make the team and catch 75% of the games. That wouldnt be stunting his growth. There's nothing more for him to prove in the minors.
    He really didnt play that long at AAA (only 75 PA's). He may not have anything left to prove in the minors, but he might need some time there for his development.

  15. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    They benched him in the playoffs because he made that bone headed throw down to third.

    And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.

    He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.

    As per Fangraphs:
    in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)
    Doumit's was negative 12.9
    In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)
    Doumit's was negative 7.9
    In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)


    What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better
    What about passed balls? Are those not the Catcher's fault?

    He's a league leader or near the top in those...

  16. #115
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Passed balls are a judgement call, and basically are as pointless as errors. Should we dive into his RBI totals next?

  17. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post

    Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career.

    Pinto is 1 for 1.
    ........

  18. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Ugh. Pick up a pitcher, sign a patchwork catcher, and see what you have in Pinto.

    It doesn't take much imagination to see Salty and his ugly splits go from "YAY Fenway" to "get me out of Target Field, please" by mid-May.
    I think the Twins know what they have in Pinto defensively, there is a reason why he DH'ed half of the time in AA.

    As kab also showed, your notions about Salty being a Fenway only hitter was incorrect. AJ wouldn't be the worst signing, but he isn't a solution past next year, and he could fall off at any moment as 38 is a tough age for any player, much less a C

  19. #118
    Can't we just all agree? We all like Pinto. Most of us have seen September success = April angst. This makes us all hesitant to just hand the job over to Pinto. Wouldn't it be better to have an insurance policy for Pinto? Or if Pinto lights the world on fire, have two good players instead of 1? We have the money. It's clear that defensively Pinto needs some work, minor or major, argue all you want on that subject, but 2014 Salty > 2014 Pinto.

  20. #119
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    Did Thome's power numbers struggle at Target Field, or are we not allowed to make comparisons to Thome, the lumberjack.
    There's a huge difference between guys who hit balls that would leave the grand canyon and guys who have "just cleared the fence" power.

    See Mauer, Joe.

  21. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Passed balls are a judgement call, and basically are as pointless as errors. Should we dive into his RBI totals next?
    Not a big fan of RBI's as an indicator of performance...

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