11-26-2013, 08:26 PM #161
If teaching it is so easy, then why is AJ so below average after 15+ years in the majors? He is just a non teachable player? Does he not work hard? What about Napoli? Is he lazy? Stupid? Or maybe does it just come naturally to some people other than others as a skill.
11-26-2013, 08:27 PM #162
So payroll of only $60M is needed to get 12 WAR based on that $5M per WAR formula.
A rookie player cost $500K...they're good for what kind of WAR?
Maybe it's $60M above...average? It would seem the WAR/Millions ratio would be changing year to year...would have to be weighted.
Doesn't correlate...which MLB teams didn't have $60M last year that didn't also win the necessary 93 games to make the playoffs.
Or the Twins...at 66 wins...need 27 more Wins or 27 x 7M added to their payroll to get to the playoffs? $264M team salary to make the playoffs?
As Mark Twain said of statistics, "there's statistics, statistics, and damned lies."
Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 08:30 PM.
11-26-2013, 08:31 PM #163
It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.
11-26-2013, 08:32 PM #164
The problem with his formula, is he takes into account bad investments, dead contracts, inactive players who weigh the cost (millions) but aren't providing towards the WAR.
11-26-2013, 08:34 PM #165
11-26-2013, 08:36 PM #166
I said, if anyone wanted, we could go over there then.
11-26-2013, 08:37 PM #167
Obviously a younster like Trout who posts a 10 WAR at 500k a year is a very nice thing to have, there is a good chance that in 2015 Buxton, Sano, Meyer will all be 3.5 WAR+ players for a total cost of 1.5 mil.
Guys like Rosario, Arcia, Pinto, Gibson, Dozier, Hicks, May, all have the possibility to give you 2-3 WAR a season at a minimum cost.
Add in some solid FA signings (5 mil per war, 40 mil total a year over the next few years) and you have all the makings of a 90-95 win team.
11-26-2013, 08:38 PM #168
11-26-2013, 08:38 PM #169
11-26-2013, 08:42 PM #170
5M is the average...eh. I'm not sure I buy it as something valuable. Sure, it's an inferred stat, but it doesn't have 100% equivalent ROI. That is, I mean sure, it's an average, but it's not a correlation.
It's like a casino...some winners, some losers, but spending $5M doesn't ensure a win.
I think a bright mind like Theo Epstein (and Terry Ryan) are onto the smart investments...minor leagues...international signings...versus playing the free agent market.
11-26-2013, 08:45 PM #171
11-26-2013, 08:47 PM #172
OF Carl Crawford (2010, 7 years, $142 million)
LHP David Wells (2004, 2 years, $8.1 million)
OF J.D. Drew (2007, 5 years, $70 million)
SS Marco Scutaro (2009, 2 years, $12.5 million)
SS Edgar Renteria (2004, 4 years, $40 million)
RHP Matt Clement (2004, 3 years, $25.8 million)
SS Julio Lugo (2006, 4 years, $36 million)
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006, 6 years, $52 million plus $51 million posting fee)
RHP Brad Penny (2008, 1 year, $5 million)
RHP John Smoltz (2009, 1 year, $5.5 million)
RHP John Lackey (2009, 5 years, $82.5 million)
OF Mike Cameron (2009, 2 years, $15.5 million)
RHP Bobby Jenks (2010, 2 years, $12 million)
Beltre Ortiz etc
11-26-2013, 08:49 PM #173
I like the stats about a player at 1B, 2B, and 3B with respect to outs. If a player gets to 2nd or 3rd. I believe you can find this in some of Bill James' abstracts. Goes up something like 20% or so per base relative to the same number of outs. This comes into play with SBs and passed balls.
Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 08:51 PM.
11-26-2013, 08:50 PM #174
11-26-2013, 08:55 PM #175
Frankly, the cubs haven't done anything yet under him. Yeah, they built a nice farm system, but as we know as Twins fans, that only goes so far, results are needed.
11-26-2013, 09:05 PM #176
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And I have multiple times said that I would be thrilled with a solid defensive catcher with a .740 for 10M/yr. I have ABSOLUTELY no problems if Salty reverts back to down seasons in Boston.
The biggest problem is that you support none of your arguments with actual data. Baseball-reference shows Morneau's career OPS split at Target Field as .787. Ironically when I look up his overall 2010-2013 OPS (since target field opened) at fangraphs it is exactly .787. I understand that this whole Target Field hurts power hitting lefties but there is very little evidence of that. And the Twins haven't had a true power hitting lefty for a significant amount of time since Target Field opened. Mauer hits to the opposite field. Morneau has sucked since 2011 regardless of where he has played. Doumit is a part time switch hitter and Arcia was a rookie.
11-26-2013, 09:37 PM #177
Per Darren Wolfson...today.
--The Twins are maintaining dialogue with free agent catchers, including A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Boston is seen as stiff competition for Pierzysnki, who was at the general managers' meetings. One Twins source didn't deny that they met with him there. To get Saltalamacchia, who a source says would sign with the Twins, the offer has to be for at least three years. The annual money figures to be in the $9 million to $11 million range.
11-26-2013, 09:38 PM #178
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I have not used the word "plummet" once in this thread.
I may have overstated Salty's possible decline but that was more hyperbole than anything else.
Later, this conversation turned toward home runs and yes, I very much used "facts" to assert my points... Like the fact that every Twins lefty (switch or dedicated) with a significant amount of PAs has hit more homers on the road than in Target Field in the past two seasons. Sure, some of those players struggled, were marginal talent, or part-time players... But when you add them all up, that's a hell of a lot of ABs. Several thousand, actually. On the other hand, I have no idea why you think it's important to bring up that Arcia was a rookie. Will he somehow magically change the dimensions of Target Field once he reaches age 25?
And then we get on to Saltalamacchia's 2013 season, which may be an aberration. He posted an OPS .060 higher than his next-best season. His BABIP was through the roof at .372. The dude can't draw a walk to save his life. He hasn't proven any kind of ability to stay healthy. He's all slugging. He literally brings no other skill to the table offensively. But for some reason, pointing out that Target Field hasn't been homer-friendly to left-handed pull hitters not named Jim Thome and I get taken to task for it.
11-26-2013, 09:50 PM #179
Target Field IMO might take a home run or two away from Salty potentially (every relevant HR example you point out only has a decrease of one or two HRs in home vs away...Florimon is irrelevant), but most likely those one or two balls turn into doubles anyways, and as Kab pointed out via OPS examples, his overall OPS would not likely take a hit because of the stadium.
The notion that Target Field is some sort of canyon and pitchers park is frankly false. Park factors has TF right in the middle.
11-26-2013, 09:56 PM #180
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