11-26-2013, 11:46 AM #121
Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.
On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point.
Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.
11-26-2013, 11:50 AM #122
11-26-2013, 11:53 AM #123
11-26-2013, 11:59 AM #124
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11-26-2013, 12:06 PM #125
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If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.
11-26-2013, 12:28 PM #126
Is Target Field crushing to lefties? Well, it seemed that way initially but it's hard to say what kind of effect it has on players at this point. It certainly doesn't help left-handed pull hitters, I think we can agree on that much. Morneau was crushed by the park. Arcia hit two more homers on the road in 70 less PAs last season. Doumit gets his power as a lefty pull hitter and has also hit a couple more road homers in marginally fewer PAs in both 2012 and 2013.
Will Target Field crush Saltalamacchia? Unlikely, but it's not unreasonable to expect his overall numbers to decline, either.
And let's not ignore that Salty had a career year in 2013, posting an OPS a full .060 higher than any other point in his career. In general, I hate giving guys multi-year deals at what might be the high point of their career. It's the driving reason why I'm absolutely against signing Ervin Santana as well.
11-26-2013, 12:33 PM #127
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The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that. Any dollar spent on a catcher (or any other position player) is money that won't be spent on the critical need of starting pitching.
As for those who are concerned with Pinto and the issue of "unproven"? The Twins have been screaming about their #1 ranked MiL system all year. The intent is that these men will be promoted to the Twins and turn the team into consistent winners. All of these MiLers fall into the category of "unproven". So many have posted "...you can't build a team on all free agents...". Well, if you insist on only using "proven" players that's what you would have to do (free agents). Since most are in agreement that the next "winning Twins" team will be built on youth, these men are by definition "unproven". The only way to find the "successful" is to play them! Some will fail. To that I answer "Next".
Summing up, NO to Saltalmacchia.
11-26-2013, 12:34 PM #128
11-26-2013, 12:52 PM #129
In reality. Fenway only had 11 more HR's last year than Target Field and only 17 more in 2012, and that can prob be explained by the fact Boston actually had guys that could hit HR's on their team.
11-26-2013, 12:53 PM #130
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11-26-2013, 12:57 PM #131
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Aside from Mauer and Morneau, Kubel also had these issues, it could be the players but what if it's the swing? Shouldn't the Twins hedge their bets?
Commendably, Saltalamacchia had a career best 28% line drive percentage last year and a career low 38% flyball rate. Both look like outliers until more data is collected, but the Twins (like most clubs) clearly prefer line drive hitters, but the park might not be the most beneficial to these guys, at least from a power perspective.
11-26-2013, 01:02 PM #132
11-26-2013, 01:05 PM #133
So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year?
The argument was Salty would get better after age 28...(which most catchers decline after 29)...
Subjective opinions are one thing...fact based models are another. Simply saying something doesn't make it so.
Salty plays at most 120g a year, hits .247 on average. Provides average defense. The Twins will spend...you fill in the blank. $80M? So you would be happy to put 12.5% of that (10/80M) towards a guy who hits below .250 on average and plays less than 75% of the games?
Nevermind the Red Sox are letting him go at age 28 when $10M to them is like $5M to us. Makes no sense whatsoever. Unless they're signing someone else out there (if so, who?) who is better (they are THE advanced statistics/metics team in MLB)...
One season over .255 doesn't constitute any sort of consistency.
11-26-2013, 01:07 PM #134
11-26-2013, 01:08 PM #135
11-26-2013, 01:13 PM #136
A more legitimate sample size.
And to those who say...he's only getting better with the Red Sox...consider his K% rates since joining the Red Sox...
401 strikeouts in 1329 Plate Appearances. That's 30.2% of the time he strikes out.
His strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox? 26.5%.
Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 01:19 PM.
11-26-2013, 01:16 PM #137
Last three years OPS+ 104
Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling
11-26-2013, 01:28 PM #138
Doumit Salty Year OPS+ OPS+ 2007 110 90 2008 127 90 2009 88 70 2010 100 69 2011 131 95 2012 114 97 2013 96 118
In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.
That is what is most telling(?)
As much as you (or anyone) may hate the small numbers, but the fact is they're the variables that factor into the more advanced metrics.
Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 01:38 PM.
11-26-2013, 01:34 PM #139
Then again, it's also far from a sure thing that Saltalamacchia will ever reach his 2013 numbers again.
But going forward, I think it's a good bet that Salty will outhit Doumit.
11-26-2013, 01:37 PM #140
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30 million for Salty... I don't know...
To me its like buying a New Callaway driver above the store price. While your Uncle is customizing a new driver for you that might be ready in a year... And you still have two other drivers in your bag that you blame for not shooting under 80... Ever.
Then taking the New Callaway out to the driving range taking a swing and saying "ooh baby" after the ball bounces past the 300 sign.
And then watching the guy next to you do the exact same thing with his decade old Korean Wonder that he bought at K-Mart.
Ooh Baby"9. Lipstick"
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