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Thread: Article: Twins Chasing Top Catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia?

  1. #121
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Fenway isn't some kind of hitter's paradise for lefties so there probably wouldn't be that much of an effect. His home/road OPS's (3 yrs) don't show a scary split either.

    Additionally you could look at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/deta...62&type=hitter

    10 of his 14 HR's (19 out of 25 in 2012) would have been HR's in 20+ parks in baseball by their estimation. I will take their estimates over your WAG.

    It seems like most of the arguments against Salty are not actually factually based. We are talking about an easy .700+ catcher that deserves to be behind the plate (Doumit absolutely does not). If somebody prefers A.J. then that's fine but I'm just hoping they bring in somebody and 3/30 won't even make a dent into the available budget to find a starting pitcher or two.
    I looked at his charts for 2012 and 2013 before posting. Yeah, he hit a few no-doubters, for sure... But there were several "Fenway homers" mixed in as well. The difference between 15 homers and 10 homers is significant, particularly because Target Field will also turn those occasional Green Monster doubles into outs almost every time.

    Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.

    On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point.

    Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.

  2. #122
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    There's a huge difference between guys who hit balls that would leave the grand canyon and guys who have "just cleared the fence" power.

    See Mauer, Joe.
    Here are Salty's HR's last year

    overlay_1385487932_976652070.jpg

  3. #123
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Here are Salty's HR's last year

    overlay_1385487932_976652070.jpg
    Again, already did that but I have a question regarding the "true" home run landing spots... Does it attempt to compensate for wind? Because, as we all know, any ball to right in TF has to fight a 30mph wind tunnel to leave the park.

  4. #124
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.
    That's a fully reasonable argument.

    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Doumit is better in every sense of catching and hitting.
    Pinto will be better defensively and offensively than Salty.
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year.
    And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.
    This is not.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I looked at his charts for 2012 and 2013 before posting. Yeah, he hit a few no-doubters, for sure... But there were several "Fenway homers" mixed in as well. The difference between 15 homers and 10 homers is significant, particularly because Target Field will also turn those occasional Green Monster doubles into outs almost every time.

    Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really.

    On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point.

    Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.
    I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

    If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.

  6. #126
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

    If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.
    Did I say that he'd be a bad hitter? No, I said he'd probably see his numbers dip a bit in TF. Yes, I realize that Fenway isn't particularly kind to right field but given Target Field's layout, Salty's already meager opposite field power would basically vanish.

    Is Target Field crushing to lefties? Well, it seemed that way initially but it's hard to say what kind of effect it has on players at this point. It certainly doesn't help left-handed pull hitters, I think we can agree on that much. Morneau was crushed by the park. Arcia hit two more homers on the road in 70 less PAs last season. Doumit gets his power as a lefty pull hitter and has also hit a couple more road homers in marginally fewer PAs in both 2012 and 2013.

    Will Target Field crush Saltalamacchia? Unlikely, but it's not unreasonable to expect his overall numbers to decline, either.

    And let's not ignore that Salty had a career year in 2013, posting an OPS a full .060 higher than any other point in his career. In general, I hate giving guys multi-year deals at what might be the high point of their career. It's the driving reason why I'm absolutely against signing Ervin Santana as well.

  7. #127
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    The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that. Any dollar spent on a catcher (or any other position player) is money that won't be spent on the critical need of starting pitching.

    As for those who are concerned with Pinto and the issue of "unproven"? The Twins have been screaming about their #1 ranked MiL system all year. The intent is that these men will be promoted to the Twins and turn the team into consistent winners. All of these MiLers fall into the category of "unproven". So many have posted "...you can't build a team on all free agents...". Well, if you insist on only using "proven" players that's what you would have to do (free agents). Since most are in agreement that the next "winning Twins" team will be built on youth, these men are by definition "unproven". The only way to find the "successful" is to play them! Some will fail. To that I answer "Next".

    Summing up, NO to Saltalmacchia.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that..
    Do you have some information that none of the rest of us have?

  9. #129
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Again, already did that but I have a question regarding the "true" home run landing spots... Does it attempt to compensate for wind? Because, as we all know, any ball to right in TF has to fight a 30mph wind tunnel to leave the park.
    That is bollocks and a weak argument "well it gets windy sometimes"

    In reality. Fenway only had 11 more HR's last year than Target Field and only 17 more in 2012, and that can prob be explained by the fact Boston actually had guys that could hit HR's on their team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Do you have some information that none of the rest of us have?
    He said that just before last season in a televised interview.

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I'm still not sure if you have looked at any charts. Fenway is not friendly to right field. And I'm still favoring hittracker's analysis that 2/3's (or more) would be home runs in 20+ parks in baseball. Overall I think the whole Target Field affect is overblown. It's not a great HR park but the Twins haven't had good LH'd power hitters for awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

    If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.
    I don't think TF affects flyball hitters as much, the guys with uppercut swings that produce towering HR hitters do just fine like Thome, or the Toronto Blue Jays. But just watching the game, it seems quite clear that the line drive hitters who square up the ball don't get the same results. I don't know how many times it looked like Morneau had a clear HR but it died before it even got to the wall. I'm no geo-thermal-nuclear-physist-meteorologist but it certainly seems like some force hurts balls on a lower trajectory while ignoring balls that get up fast.

    Aside from Mauer and Morneau, Kubel also had these issues, it could be the players but what if it's the swing? Shouldn't the Twins hedge their bets?

    Commendably, Saltalamacchia had a career best 28% line drive percentage last year and a career low 38% flyball rate. Both look like outliers until more data is collected, but the Twins (like most clubs) clearly prefer line drive hitters, but the park might not be the most beneficial to these guys, at least from a power perspective.

  12. #132
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    That is bollocks and a weak argument "well it gets windy sometimes"

    In reality. Fenway only had 11 more HR's last year than Target Field and only 17 more in 2012, and that can prob be explained by the fact Boston actually had guys that could hit HR's on their team.
    I don't know why it's bollocks when every single lefty (>200 PAs) on the Twins has hit more road homers in the past two years. Every. Single. One.

    Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, Parmelee...

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    That's a fully reasonable argument.





    This is not.

    So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year?

    The argument was Salty would get better after age 28...(which most catchers decline after 29)...

    Subjective opinions are one thing...fact based models are another. Simply saying something doesn't make it so.

    Salty plays at most 120g a year, hits .247 on average. Provides average defense. The Twins will spend...you fill in the blank. $80M? So you would be happy to put 12.5% of that (10/80M) towards a guy who hits below .250 on average and plays less than 75% of the games?

    Nevermind the Red Sox are letting him go at age 28 when $10M to them is like $5M to us. Makes no sense whatsoever. Unless they're signing someone else out there (if so, who?) who is better (they are THE advanced statistics/metics team in MLB)...

    One season over .255 doesn't constitute any sort of consistency.

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The Twins will operate under a budget for 2014--and it won't be anywhere close to $100MM or 52% of revenue or whatever fantasy metric you choose. It won't be more than 2013 (DSP "...we're comfortable with $80-85MM..."), or quite likely less than that. Any dollar spent on a catcher (or any other position player) is money that won't be spent on the critical need of starting pitching.

    As for those who are concerned with Pinto and the issue of "unproven"? The Twins have been screaming about their #1 ranked MiL system all year. The intent is that these men will be promoted to the Twins and turn the team into consistent winners. All of these MiLers fall into the category of "unproven". So many have posted "...you can't build a team on all free agents...". Well, if you insist on only using "proven" players that's what you would have to do (free agents). Since most are in agreement that the next "winning Twins" team will be built on youth, these men are by definition "unproven". The only way to find the "successful" is to play them! Some will fail. To that I answer "Next".

    Summing up, NO to Saltalmacchia.
    Exactly. And by no means would I commit more than 10% of the salary to a sub .250, poor defensive catcher who plays at most 120 g a season.

  15. #135
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'm no geo-thermal-nuclear-physist-meteorologist but it certainly seems like some force hurts balls on a lower trajectory while ignoring balls that get up fast.
    My point. While thermal dynamics and wind analysis are hardly my specialty, it's not hard to look at that long ramp heading up to right field to see how a wind tunnel effect could be created. If a ball goes high enough and escapes that (hypothetical) flow of air, it might not die on the warning track like we've seen so many times in the past four seasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    awhile. Mauer hits to the opposite field and Morneau hasn't hit well anywhere. Strangely 2 of Salty's shorter HR's (2011 and 2012) were hit to RF at Target Field.

    If you had any actual facts to back up your argument that Salty would suffer at Target Field then this would be more interesting but all I see are opinions that are weakly supported by actual facts.
    Way too small of a sample size.


    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't know why it's bollocks when every single lefty (>200 PAs) on the Twins has hit more road homers in the past two years. Every. Single. One.

    Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, Parmelee...

    A more legitimate sample size.

    And to those who say...he's only getting better with the Red Sox...consider his K% rates since joining the Red Sox...

    401 strikeouts in 1329 Plate Appearances. That's 30.2% of the time he strikes out.

    His strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox? 26.5%.


    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...altaja01.shtml
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 01:19 PM.

  17. #137
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Last three years OPS+ 104

    Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Last three years OPS+ 104

    Keep throwing out single stats like strikeouts, or his World Series numbers etc but at the end of the day, 104 ops+ is what Is most telling

    Doumit Salty
    Year OPS+ OPS+
    2007 110 90
    2008 127 90
    2009 88 70
    2010 100 69
    2011 131 95
    2012 114 97
    2013 96 118


    In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.

    That is what is most telling(?)

    Doumit
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...oumiry01.shtml

    Salty
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...altaja01.shtml

    As much as you (or anyone) may hate the small numbers, but the fact is they're the variables that factor into the more advanced metrics.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-26-2013 at 01:38 PM.

  19. #139
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Doumit Salty
    Year OPS+ OPS+
    2007 110 90
    2008 127 90
    2009 88 70
    2010 100 69
    2011 131 95
    2012 114 97
    2013 96 118


    In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty.

    That is what is most telling.

    Doumit
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...oumiry01.shtml

    Salty
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...altaja01.shtml
    In all fairness, Salty is in the middle of his prime years while Doumit is in a decline phase. It's far from a sure thing that 2010-2012 Doumit will ever return.

    Then again, it's also far from a sure thing that Saltalamacchia will ever reach his 2013 numbers again.

    But going forward, I think it's a good bet that Salty will outhit Doumit.

  20. #140
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    30 million for Salty... I don't know...

    To me its like buying a New Callaway driver above the store price. While your Uncle is customizing a new driver for you that might be ready in a year... And you still have two other drivers in your bag that you blame for not shooting under 80... Ever.

    Then taking the New Callaway out to the driving range taking a swing and saying "ooh baby" after the ball bounces past the 300 sign.

    And then watching the guy next to you do the exact same thing with his decade old Korean Wonder that he bought at K-Mart.

    Ooh Baby
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  21. This user likes Riverbrian's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Kwak (11-26-2013)

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