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Thread: How to get Tanaka, wouldja?...

  1. #21
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    The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

    If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

    Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

    It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I would love to sign Tanaka but only in the 100-125M range. 150-200M is completely crazy. Why not spend 60-90M on Jimenez, Garza or Ervin?
    Agreeing,but only if we sign all 3 ,Spend the money, spend it early build hope early and watch as the ticket sales climb...The fans of the Twins want nothing more then to cheer for this team , and we have proven we will support them...Its just up to Terry and Co. to put a championship caliber team on the field

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

    If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

    Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

    It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.
    Many have already folded 2014 , most experts are saying maybe 2016. So why not?

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

    If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

    Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

    It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.
    Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

    And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

    And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.
    This is what a lot of people are getting confused about. Tanaka isn't in Darvish's league. I don't understand why people keep calling him an ace.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    This is what a lot of people are getting confused about. Tanaka isn't in Darvish's league. I don't understand why people keep calling him an ace.
    How many more NPB guys need to successfully transition to MLB before we accept the validity of their success over there? In my mind we have already crossed that point.

    We are talking about the best pitcher in Japan, that's really all we need to known about him IMO.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    How many more NPB guys need to successfully transition to MLB before we accept the validity of their success over there? In my mind we have already crossed that point.

    We are talking about the best pitcher in Japan, that's really all we need to known about him IMO.
    I think that there are several examples of position players and pitchers who were successful for a short term, several examples of position players and pitchers who were not successful at all and exactly one (Ichiro) maybe 2 (Matsui) who were successful in the long term (like a 5+ year contract).

    The jury is still out on Darvish, but starting pitchers like Nomo and Matsuzaka were figured out after a couple of seasons and were average to bad afterwards.

    Too much risk at that price.
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

    And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.
    When you look at the stats and compare the players it seems hard for me to understand how Darvish was in another tier. You can google Tanaka vs Darvish and the supposed experts seem to think they are very comparable with a slight edge to Tanaka in most cases.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tex...yu-darvish.ece

    I agree though that the Twins will not be players in the bidding game. Ryan doesn't work that way and our owner doesn't meddle in baseball decisions. Tanaka would be way, way out of the Twins comfort zone and a huge risk. Personally unless they got Garza if I were them I would go Tanaka but that is just my rookie opinion.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    When you look at the stats and compare the players it seems hard for me to understand how Darvish was in another tier. You can google Tanaka vs Darvish and the supposed experts seem to think they are very comparable with a slight edge to Tanaka in most cases.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tex...yu-darvish.ece
    I have read numerous scouting reports that say Tanaka is not as talented as Darvish regardless of what his stats are or a couple of unnamed scouts trying to hype him up.

    Tanaka is a really good pitcher but in no way is he worth 21-29M/yr before he has even thrown an MLB pitch.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I think that there are several examples of position players and pitchers who were successful for a short term, several examples of position players and pitchers who were not successful at all and exactly one (Ichiro) maybe 2 (Matsui) who were successful in the long term (like a 5+ year contract).

    The jury is still out on Darvish, but starting pitchers like Nomo and Matsuzaka were figured out after a couple of seasons and were average to bad afterwards.

    Too much risk at that price.
    I think it depends on the risk you are talking about. Is the risk that the Twins would go all in on Tanaka and not spend on an older second tier ace or two this season or is there a greater risk that the Twins do nothing with the money they have under their budget? The money for the bid doesn't count against the cap and the contract although large would not be terribly out of line for any other ace or second tier ace. To me the greater risk is that they do little to nothing to correct the pitching problem.

    Your analysis does point out the risk of signing players from NPB but unfortunately there is risk with every pitcher you might sign. Even if the Twins only got two good years of pitching out of him that would be better than the status quo and again the move wouldn't hamper their payroll other than this year. Again I say the risk of NOT trying for Tanaka is greater than the risk of trying to get him in my opinion.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I have read numerous scouting reports that say Tanaka is not as talented as Darvish regardless of what his stats are or a couple of unnamed scouts trying to hype him up.

    Tanaka is a really good pitcher but in no way is he worth 21-29M/yr before he has even thrown an MLB pitch.
    I reread several articles and most say they do not think he is better than Darvish so I stand corrected on that point. The Stats in Japan, however, paint Tanaka as having performed better than Darvish but most scouts feel his fastball is not MLB quality and they paint Tanaka as number 2 or 3 pitcher. So far no article I have found paints him as a number 1.

    Truth be told no one really knows if he will succeed or not so that makes him a much greater risk. The big boys can and usually do take those risks with varying degree's of success. Risk is likely too great for Twins to take. I just want a guy who can come in and be an ace sooo bad seemed like Tanaka might be the one.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    I reread several articles and most say they do not think he is better than Darvish so I stand corrected on that point. The Stats in Japan, however, paint Tanaka as having performed better than Darvish but most scouts feel his fastball is not MLB quality and they paint Tanaka as number 2 or 3 pitcher. So far no article I have found paints him as a number 1.

    Truth be told no one really knows if he will succeed or not so that makes him a much greater risk. The big boys can and usually do take those risks with varying degree's of success. Risk is likely too great for Twins to take. I just want a guy who can come in and be an ace sooo bad seemed like Tanaka might be the one.
    I'm willing to take risks and I would love to sign him but locking up a pitcher that has never thrown a MLB pitch for 150-200M is silly regardless of the team. Especially when there are some questions in the scouting reports.

  13. #33
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    I know it doesn't mean much, but I asked Doogie on Twitter if the Twins could shock the world and go after Tanaka since they seem to like him. He said:

    "I think it's more than like. It's a near love-fest. Just such a tough posting fee battle to win."

    Anybody think they'll make a real attempt to sign him? I'd say it's highly unlikely, but young, potential aces don't come around very often.

  14. #34
    It's hard to get a handle on how to grade the Japanese players. For pitchers, there are a couple places to start. One, what's his fastball velocity? I'm sure there are radar guns in Japan, but you'll have to convert it from metric. Next, has Tanaka ever faced Tsuyoshi Nishioka? If he has bad results...it's a pass. If he has good results, he could be an average MLB pitcher.

  15. #35
    Senior Member Double-A Jdosen's Avatar
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    Per Twitter, $20M is the max posting fee, and ties go to the team with the lowest winning percentage. I wonder if this means the Twins could be in on Tanaka. They certainly have a golden opportunity. The only 3 teams that could tie with us and win this offseason are Houston, Miami, and the White Sox, with the Cubs being tied with us for the 4th worst record in the league.

    Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I'd love to make a run at Tanaka here, as the plan is to not have a record this bad again for a long time.
    I just started the blog Troy Williamson's Hands which is about MN sports and whatever else I want to write--you can find it at http://troywilliamsonshands.blogspot.com/
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  17. #36
    This is their chance. The deck is definitely stacked in their favor. I was 100% against this guy, but now that we have this opportunity, I'd throw down the 20 million and then rock and roll with negotiating.

    His potential is good and he is young. What say you?

  18. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    Wow, that's a major change. Only problem is that other teams like the Astros/Cubs will definitely bid 20 million. So now the Twins have almost no shot.

  19. #38
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    As has been stated - Tanaka is not Darvish. Remember the hype with Dice-K, that's more of a comparable. Would you pay Darvish prices for Dice-K? I sure wouldn't. Go for Garza instead.

  20. #39
    The posting fee limit is not finalized. While it looks like 20M is the number, it is not clear how a team will be selected with multiple teams willing to post the max. It is possible that the player will get to choose the team.

  21. #40
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MileHighTwinsFan View Post
    The posting fee limit is not finalized. While it looks like 20M is the number, it is not clear how a team will be selected with multiple teams willing to post the max. It is possible that the player will get to choose the team.

    Indeed.

    Say 3 teams posted the same money. They get to talk to the player in reverse record order. If he does not make a deal with the 2 worse teams, he may make a deal with the third. Think about it the same way as the team a free agent has been playing for gets a week to re-sign him before he hits the market. All about first dibs. Not necessary to sign with them.
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