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Thread: How to get Tanaka, wouldja?...

  1. #1
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    How to get Tanaka, wouldja?...

    I don't see this as something the Twins FO would do but I certainly would. with the 2014 All Star game coming to Target field. Scrapping one more season to make getting Tanaka a possibility probably isnt likely. Although it can be done & within budget. With the young budding star prospects, a soon to be extremely gifted defensive OF & pitchers park. MN can be a very attractive option for 2015 and beyond.

    The real question is if this is what it took to land Tanaka would you do it?

    First off, its going take 150M to possibly 200M even. The bid/posting rules for this year still don't seem to be agreed upon. There were hints the player may have the option to choose from the top 3 bids, that the posting bonus paid may even be the average of the top 3 bids. I haven't seen any final rulings yet.

    The bid is going to need to be in the 75-100 million range, this will get you in the top 3. A 5Y/75M contract structured at 10/15/15/15/20 feels like a safe number to budget for although I would front load it in 2015/2016. If they can get less that's bonus. The Pohlads are not going to just pull 75M out of their pockets, its going to need to fit into the 2014 budget & here's how.

    Bid money needed, $75-$100 Million:
    It's known there was payroll left to spend in 2013 even before Morneau was moved. Theres your 1st $10M conservatively. Another 25M is now coming in annually from the new TV contract, now we have $35M. The 2014 payroll is currently near 60M, attendence has dropped and will likely drop slightly more. 100M is a slightly high end estimate of what the 2014 budget could be considering we already added the new TV money. Now we're at $75M meaning 25M needs to be cut from this years payroll.

    Trades: Willingham 7M, Corriea 5.5M, Doumit 3.5M, Perkins 4M, Burton 3.5, & non-tender Duensing 2M. Ryan could get easily move the likes of these players while getting a solid return prospect wise. That frees up 25 more million giving the team $100 million withing the 2014 budget to bid on & sign Mashiro Tanaka.

    2014 rebuild roster
    C Pinto
    1B Mauer
    2B Dozier
    3B Plouffe
    SS Florimon
    LF Mastrioanni
    CF Pressly
    RF Arcia
    DH Collabello

    Bench Hermann, Parmelee, Escobar, Fryer

    SP Tanaka, Deduno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond
    BP Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Pressly, Theilbar, Hendricks, Worley

    Mid year callups for experience: Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, Hicks, Buxton

    The team has the #5 overall pick in 2014 & that is easily a bottom 3 team giving the Twins possibly 2 very high end college SP to add to the current crop of Meyer, Stewart & Berrios. Not to mention an extreme amount of available payroll to go after a strong pitcher in 2015.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 11-23-2013 at 03:18 AM.

  2. #2
    If we can get good value for Perkins I would certainly entertain a move like this. Anything to keep us from signing the Arroyos of the world.
    BYTO R.I.P.

  3. #3
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    i like the plan. i am not sure we could get somebody to pay for all of josh's salary but i am sure somebody would eat most of it. Second i would sign him to a longer contract. Maybe thru 7 years@ the prices mentioned. And i say that because We woukd have his best yrs and get the mostout of his posting fee that way. And i would not sign any other pitcher until next offseason if i signed Tanaka. This year Meyer and Gibson would be up. Next offseason I would target a lefthander.
    the lineup posted for 2014 would pry get us a great draft pick 2015 when the twins are really good. I myself would rather watch the kids play then watch verens play to a .500 record

  4. #4
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    There's no way I would pay 150-200M for Tanaka. Even if it was a 7 year contract we are talking about 21.5-28.5M/yr. that's silly money for a non-ace (upside) that has never thrown an MLB pitch.

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  6. #5
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    50-60M posting fee is what I think the team should bid. If it's over that, unless they are convinced he's a sure thing, I'd pass.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post



    2014 rebuild roster
    C Pinto
    1B Mauer
    2B Dozier
    3B Plouffe
    SS Florimon
    LF Mastrioanni
    CF Pressly
    RF Arcia
    DH Collabello

    Bench Hermann, Parmelee, Escobar, Fryer

    SP Tanaka, Deduno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond
    BP Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Pressly, Theilbar, Hendricks, Worley

    This team (replacing Mastroianni for Willingham, Presley for Hicks, Colabello for Doumit, Pinto for Morneau and Tanaka for Pelfrey, Tonkin for Perkins and Hendriks for Duensing) from the 96 loss team, might have another 96 losses.

    You need to improve the team and not make Tanaka the Mauer of the rotation. Plus, he is as sure a thing as Alex Meyer is at this point. Similar numbers (if you don't count W-Ls) at similar competition level... This team needs to keep the pen as intact as possible, get 3 new SPs, maybe a bat or 2 and strengthen the bench. What you are doing, makes everything (other than a single pitcher) worse than 2013.
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  9. #7
    Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarends703 View Post
    Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.
    Totally agree, they are currently more sure things than Tanaka in my book and you could probably get both for about the price you'd pay Tanaka.

    I'd like to see them put a bid in on Tanaka and try to spend 100-125 posting fee + contract on him for a 6-7 year deal. I could live with that. Not convinced he's the second coming of Yu Darvish yet.

  11. #9
    I see a couple problems with this budget assessment. The cost of replacing Willingham 7M, Corriea 5.5M, Doumit 3.5M, Perkins 4M, Burton 3.5, & non-tender Duensing 2M is being ignored. It would take around $3M even if you replace them all with league minimum players. That would definitely be punting the 2014 season. We would likely be worse than we were in 2013.

    52% of the $25M goes to payroll. Therefore, payroll budget is increased by $13.

    Regardless of the financial viability, this leaves us a starting rotation made up of a guy that has never thrown a pitch in MLB and 4 guys with big question marks and the back-end of a very good bullpen has been replaced with league minimum players. Not a good plan.

    I have no problem getting rid of any of these players but there has to be a better plan for bridging the gap to Sano / Buxton / Meyer / May / Rosario and others. Go offer Burnett a crazy amount for 1 or 2 years. Sign two of Kazmir, Feldman, Nolaso and Hughes. We would still have salary room to pursue the 2015 free agent crop of SPs which looks much stronger. If we get one of the 2015 SPs we can flip one of the 2014 crop.

  12. #10
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    The Twins should put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket and avoid the mistake of overpaying for old back of the rotation pitchers like Arroyo and Capuano. I would be all in this year. The posting fee only impacts one year. That money is available again next year.

  13. #11
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    There's no way I would pay 150-200M for Tanaka. Even if it was a 7 year contract we are talking about 21.5-28.5M/yr. that's silly money for a non-ace (upside) that has never thrown an MLB pitch.
    DING****DING***DING***DING


    Where is that darn like button.

  14. #12
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Tanaka isn't worth the money, if you want to dump 150 million+ into a guy, just throw a few more dollars at a Kershaw, Price, Sherzer or Lester in the future.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Tanaka isn't worth the money, if you want to dump 150 million+ into a guy, just throw a few more dollars at a Kershaw, Price, Sherzer or Lester in the future.
    Agreed, it's too big of a gamble. No one truly knows what to expect from him. I'd rather sign two big names right now for less money likely.

  16. #14
    The only guys on the market I would give 4-5+ years are:
    1.Masahhiro Tanaka
    2.Matt Garza
    3.Ervin Santana
    4.Ubaldo Jimenez




    5.Ricky Nolasco (frown)
    And after Ricky there's not a pitcher who you could sign long term and is solid. The only people I'd give 4 plus are the top four, Nolasco if your desperate. If you ask me I'd prefer the # 2,3,4 guys.

  17. #15
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    My question is what about the Twins allstar bump? isint that going to be 30 million or more?
    couldnt that be used to help make the bid?
    25 million , new tv revenue
    30 million ,allstar bump....
    Thats a start , I believe we will see a 70 million dollar bid finish 3rd or 4th...but to me thats the most we should bid.

  18. #16
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    The Twins will be lucky if the All Star game bump offsets fan indifference for the lousy baseball that the Twins are playing. Attendance has dropped from 40K/game in 10/11 to 34K/game to 30K/game last year.

    They just flat out need to play better baseball otherwise that is going down further. But that is no excuse to spend 20-30M/yr on a pitcher like tanaka for 6-7 years. That is insanity.

  19. #17
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarends703 View Post
    Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.
    Yes to Garza, but can't bring myself to sign Santana due the rumored contract demands. Even if his agent is blowing smoke and shooting high, I still don't believe he's worth #1 money and that's pretty much what he is asking.

    But the point is very valid here.

    Forgetting new TV money and budget cuts made and possible mid-season cuts in payroll via trades, I can't sanction spending almost $100M JUST TO TALK to a player then sign him. I know you get the posting fee back if he doesn't sign, but sheesh, pushing $200M to sign one guy who pitches every fifth day and despite ability and solid reports hasn't even pitched in this league yet?

    Perhaps I am guilty of being overly optimistic, but I don't think the Twins are that far away. I really don't. Two quality solid arms with the arms we have, a vet C (AJ) a strong bullpen that should remain so, with depth, and probably even better without pitching so many innings, a handful of good to solid vets (with some health and rebound) and a handful of talented youngsters with some even more talented kids almost ready.

    That's how I'd invest.

  20. #18
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    I will say I don't know much about Tanaka and I understand the great risk involved in getting him but if you can get past the bid money he is young and affordable for our team for several years after that. Maybe he gets to MLB and is a bust, but it sounds like no one has pitched much better than he has in that league and Darvish has done well for Texas. If his arm holds I think he is a pretty safe bet. The Twins never do anything with the extra money they don;t spend year to year. It would be nice to see the Pohlads show there commitment to the fans and use a few million out the billions they have to try and get this team going. They would have room next year for another big pickup and with any luck our prospects will be starting to kick in as well. We could be a strong team for the next decade.

    Reality is that it will not happen as the FO just doesn't think like that. They don't take those kinds of risks so it is pretty pointless to go there. As others have pointed out there are other ways to go and they might even work out better but I for one would have liked to see them go for Tanaka. I think he is worth the risk.

  21. #19
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    Tanaka or bust....Me says
    If not we will end up with Bruce Chen and Arroyo.
    Why not get some thing new, some thing better.
    Move Terry out of his comfort zone and sign quality,
    instead of quanity....

  22. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Tanaka or bust....Me says
    If not we will end up with Bruce Chen and Arroyo.
    Why not get some thing new, some thing better.
    Move Terry out of his comfort zone and sign quality,
    instead of quanity....
    I would love to sign Tanaka but only in the 100-125M range. 150-200M is completely crazy. Why not spend 60-90M on Jimenez, Garza or Ervin?

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