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Thread: Extra Money/Less or Lower Prospects for Price?

  1. #1

    Extra Money/Less or Lower Prospects for Price?

    From MLBTR:
    Stark reports an unknown wrinkle in the David Price trade saga. Price signed a one-year, $10.1125MM contract to avoid arbitration last January, but $5MM of that sum comes in the form of a signing bonus that is deferred to next year. While it was presented as a tax-related issue at the time, Stark notes that the Rays can use it as leverage in a trade, agreeing to take a slightly lesser package if the acquiring team pays that additional $5MM.

    Not saying we'll even explore Price, but could 5 million possibly mean we can offer up a package with nobody named Buxton, Sano, or Meyer in it and still have it considered if we pay the extra money (and we have extra money)?

  2. #2
    I'd do Hicks, May, Rosario(not sure he can be traded while suspended), Walker, PTBN(allowing us to give them one of our picks from last year's draft and then maybe a solid MLB bullpen guy. Not sure that'd be enough. I wouldn't give them any of the 3 you listed....All of this also is based on the Twins coming to the conclusion that Price would sign a long term deal and buy out his remaining years of arb.

  3. #3
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Price for $15M and 1 year would have a lot of interested teams, but I'm not sure any of them would give a top 10 prospect for him, so it's certainly possible to get him without parting for Buxton or Sano. But I could see it requiring Meyer. I wouldn't do that.

    The only way the Twins should move prospects for Price is if they sign him to a long-term deal as part of the trade - and that is going to take $200M. That's just not going to happen (though I'd certainly approve.)

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    I'd do Hicks, May, Rosario(not sure he can be traded while suspended), Walker, PTBN(allowing us to give them one of our picks from last year's draft and then maybe a solid MLB bullpen guy. Not sure that'd be enough. I wouldn't give them any of the 3 you listed....All of this also is based on the Twins coming to the conclusion that Price would sign a long term deal and buy out his remaining years of arb.
    We have the prologue for this deal already written. The Rays traded Shields basically for 3 young prospects, 5th round pick (IF Patrick Leonard 21), 1st round pick (SP Jake Odorizzi 23, prospect ranked # 45) and of course, the prime prize, 3rd round pick (Wil Myers 22, prospect ranked #4 overall). That would mean one of the top 2 Twins prospects AND Travis Harrison or Aaron Hicks, PLUS Alex Meyer.....while the Twins would get Price and a Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson set of equivalent steak knives. Yuck. The Rays are already way ahead of us in engineering this type of deal for maximum value, and have a history of fleecing the Twins- this just isn't going to happen.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    We have the prologue for this deal already written. The Rays traded Shields basically for 3 young prospects, 5th round pick (IF Patrick Leonard 21), 1st round pick (SP Jake Odorizzi 23, prospect ranked # 45) and of course, the prime prize, 3rd round pick (Wil Myers 22, prospect ranked #4 overall). That would mean one of the top 2 Twins prospects AND Travis Harrison or Aaron Hicks, PLUS Alex Meyer.....while the Twins would get Price and a Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson set of equivalent steak knives. Yuck. The Rays are already way ahead of us in engineering this type of deal for maximum value, and have a history of fleecing the Twins- this just isn't going to happen.
    Bring back the like button for this one. This kind of trade has served the Rays and As very well. Why would we want to participate after watching this type of deal repeatedly favor the seller?
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 11-22-2013 at 11:17 PM.

  6. #6
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I'd certainly be willing to consider trading some of the guys in the bottom of the top 10 (assuming of course Price signs an extension), but trading anything for 1 year of Price is foolish.

    The reality though is that the team that will make this trade is a team that is looking for something to put them over the top. I could see KC doing something like that since they've already shown a propensity to do it... they are much closer than the Twins though.

    The Twins should not be making this type of trade unless it turns out that there's no market for him and they can trade Harrison/Walker type guys to get him. I highly doubt that happens.

  7. #7
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    The Rays didn't fleece Terry Ryan they fleeced Bill Smith. THe only person I've ever seen fleece Terry Ryan is Terry Ryan (when he released Ortiz).

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    Bring back the like button for this one. This kind of trade has served the Rays and As very well. Why would we want to participate after watching this type of deal repeatedly favor the seller?
    This type of deal only make sense if we can keep our top 3-4 prospects out of it. This deal will never happen though because the rest of the team is not going to be up on all cyllindars over the next 2 years while we are intergrating a bunch of new position players. A long term extension would have to come with the trade 6 year 150 million + that would be too cool. In that case I would trade any 4 or 5 pitchers not named Meyer ( Gibson, Stewart, Thorpe, and Eades and Swazak or Pressley) there would be 2 PTBNL.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    Bring back the like button for this one. This kind of trade has served the Rays and As very well. Why would we want to participate after watching this type of deal repeatedly favor the seller?
    So why would you like a trade for the Twins that would cost top prospects that would bring back a starter that isn't any good but costs money (Wade Davis type) and a player that you would just release (Elliot Johnson type)?

  10. #10
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    This is a fantasy trade (as in not a chance of happening). There is no way the Twins can pull this off w/o including one of Buxton or Sano and there isn't any indication that Price is signing a long extension (that I have read).

    Perhaps a team like Texas pulls it off but I'm guessing that Price reaches FA next year. I would hope that the Twins would open the vault for him but even that's pretty unlikely.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    We have the prologue for this deal already written. The Rays traded Shields basically for 3 young prospects, 5th round pick (IF Patrick Leonard 21), 1st round pick (SP Jake Odorizzi 23, prospect ranked # 45) and of course, the prime prize, 3rd round pick (Wil Myers 22, prospect ranked #4 overall). That would mean one of the top 2 Twins prospects AND Travis Harrison or Aaron Hicks, PLUS Alex Meyer.....while the Twins would get Price and a Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson set of equivalent steak knives. Yuck. The Rays are already way ahead of us in engineering this type of deal for maximum value, and have a history of fleecing the Twins- this just isn't going to happen.
    I don't think it's a perfect comparison though. Number 1 the royals are stupid - joking, kind of there's a reason they've been awful for like 30 years. Number 2 Shields had 2 years of control as opposed to 1. They're awfully similar pitchers if you look at the numbers. No denying that Price is a bit better and 3 years younger than Shields.

    Still I wonder with the looming 150 million or more extension that would need to be signed if that drives the prospect price down a bit. Similar to when we dealt Johan. I don't see how any deal gets done for Price if he doesn't sign an extension.

    All this said, it'd be awfully tough to pull off this deal without including one of Meyer, Sano, Buxton. Especially with Rosario getting suspended. One guy we're forgetting is Pinto who was just rated #5 in our system by BP. Talk about selling high on a guy. Maybe a deal centered around Pinto, Berrios, Gonsalves or Thorpe? That's a lot of top guys and creates a gaping hole at Catcher for us but also brings in a top 5 legit Ace. It really depends on if they're wiling to deal him for guys that are a few years out. This also guts our pitching prospects but creates less of a need for them too.

  12. #12
    I'd give up Meyer in a heartbeat to get a signed Price.

    No to Buxton but can you imagine an OF of Buxton-Myers in Tampa

  13. #13
    Unless the Twins kick the tires on something like this we have no idea what it would take. As long as Buxton, Sano Meyer are no part of it, it needs to be considered. Price is a true #1. He's still very young. Does TR still have the stones to pull something like this off? I'd like to find out.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    So why would you like a trade for the Twins that would cost top prospects that would bring back a starter that isn't any good but costs money (Wade Davis type) and a player that you would just release (Elliot Johnson type)?
    My post was obviously unclear. I would not touch one of these deals where top prospects are involved. I thought TB got by far the better end of the Meyers / Shields trade. Meyers is already a very good player and could very well be an all-star soon. Trading two years of Shields for 6 years of a highly productive, low cost Meyers, was a very bad deal for KC. I would not be a proponent of following their lead.

    Why not just wait until next year when there will be a few top of the rotation guys. The extension for Price is not going to be any better of a deal than the FAs next year and they don't cost of any of our top prospects. This type of trade also completely ignores where this team is in terms of the rebuilding process. We are not going to compete unless and until
    some combination of Buxton / Sano / Meyers / May / Dozier / Rosario and others take this team to contention. That is likely not until 2017 or maybe 2016 if everything comes together. IMO, this type of trade only makes sense if it is for a final piece. It makes no sense for a team that is at least 2 years for contention.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    So why would you like a trade for the Twins that would cost top prospects that would bring back a starter that isn't any good but costs money (Wade Davis type) and a player that you would just release (Elliot Johnson type)?
    Duplicate deleted.

  16. #16
    Only reason I brought this up was becaue of the $5 million meaning they might take a less attractive package of prospects for Price.

    If they ask for Buxton, Sano, or Meyer (any one of them, multiple of them, or all three of them), the answer is clearly no. Not happening. Goodbye and good luck.

    However, what I was hoping is maybe you get two years of Price (as the Royals are with Shields for sure before FA) for possibly a prospect/MLB package like this:

    Take your pick of 3:
    Rosario (if you pick Rosario, no Dozier)
    May
    Arcia
    Dozier (if you pick Dozier, no Rosario)
    Hicks
    Santana
    Gibson

    Players like this ... I probably would leave Kohl Stewart off the table because of how young he is, where we drafted him, and we don't know what we have in him yet. However, a package like Rosario (and I know it'll be tough to move him now until most likely mid-season), May, and Arcia might make them bite IF we also pick up the $5 million.

    The Rays aren't stupid. They are going to ask for Buxton, Sano, or Meyer and probably ask for 2 of the 3. As another poster said, it's most likely a fantasy trade, but depending on what other offers they get, a package like Rosario, May, and Arcia might just make them bite or consider it.

    What we don't know yet for the Royals will be can they keep Shields past this season? If they can, the trade looks a bit better for them. If they can't, the Rays owned them. I doubt they can because they have payroll issues and a budget (and an owner who doesn't like spending money). It's kind of like the Pominville trade for the Wild in the NHL. Had we only had him for the few games last year and all of this season, the trade would have been very much in the Sabers favor. However with us signing Pommers long term, it now at least looks a little better for us ... maybe even more over half for us right now because of how he's playing (if we make a deep run this year and he's a big reason why, it looks very good for us). It depends on what the Royals can do.

    We do have a picture of what it took for Shields and Price is probbaly better. However, teams are getting smarter. Hopefully we learn from our past mistakes with the Rays if we even have the small temptation to pursue Price. I do trust TR here as he's major on prospects and protecting them (sometimes too much, but no way he lets Buxton, Sano, or Meyer go ... they are untouchable IMO with him running things).

  17. #17
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    If it is Buxton or Sano, it is a no. I agree.

    Unfortunately, that is what separates the a Twins from the other teams interested in pursuing Price. The other teams have the next tier of prospects to offer. They have the money. In fact, their interest may seem stronger when they are offering their best prospects.

    The Royals were able to make the a Shields deal because they had that rare top tier prospect. There is nothing other interested teams could do to match Myers.

    If the Twins get Price, it will be at the cost of Buxton or Sano. I wouldn't do it.

  18. #18
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I can't imagine $5m would make any significant difference in the asking price for Price.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  19. #19
    At the end of the day there is no reason to not pick up the phone and call to find out. If you call and the first thing they say is Buxton, Sano or Meyer you say no. If they want to keep talking after that, you might have yourself a potential deal on your hands. We have tons of talent in the minors. May as well exploit some of it, especially since we have very high picks again in this summer's very strong draft class. I would consider the only untouchables Meyer, Sano, Buxton and Stewart (PTBNL). After that, we still have many good prospects that most teams would be interested in.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post

    Why not just wait until next year when there will be a few top of the rotation guys. The extension for Price is not going to be any better of a deal than the FAs next year and they don't cost of any of our top prospects. This type of trade also completely ignores where this team is in terms of the rebuilding process. We are not going to compete unless and until
    some combination of Buxton / Sano / Meyers / May / Dozier / Rosario and others take this team to contention. That is likely not until 2017 or maybe 2016 if everything comes together. IMO, this type of trade only makes sense if it is for a final piece. It makes no sense for a team that is at least 2 years for contention.
    This isn't really true. Guys have to actually make it to FA for it to be true and Price actually has 2 years left before free agency (I said 1 earlier).

    If the Twins could work out a Price trade involving Meyer and Rosario with a HUGE extension locking him up then I would do it instantly. The Twins won't be able to spend all of their available money for the next few years and Price will likely be 2x-3x more valuable than Meyer and Rosario over the next 6+ years.

    But this kind of move goes against everything that the Pohlads and TR believe in and I don't think Tampa does it unless Buxton/Sano are involved. That's why I mention the Rangers. They could dangle Profar for Price and then be the last team standing in the Cano sweepstakes. They probably couldn't lock him up but a Price/Darvish/Holland/Harrison rotation with Fielder/Cano/Beltre in the middle of the lineup could make them WS favorites.

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