Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 69

Thread: Article: Should Twins Offer Bronson Arroyo A Third Year?

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    730
    Like
    26
    Liked 56 Times in 45 Posts
    Blog Entries
    9
    Also Moyer is another comp for a soft tosser lasting past 40. He is a good comp because like Arroyo he didn't have the 200 inning seasons till his late 20's. meaning he had years to build up his arm and hasn't had too much stress on it. I think he'll last the 3 years, the question is if he looses 1 - 2 mph off of his already slow pitching will he still be effective enough to get the job done. He walks 1.5 per nine innings his strike out to walk ratio is way in his favor. I think he'll be fine.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    292
    Like
    4
    Liked 45 Times in 31 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Agree -- 100%!

    23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=P&season=2013

    To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=2013&teamid=0

    You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

    They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.
    Great post. It's not just the home runs with Arroyo though. He has always had a huge platoon split.

    2013
    Lefties OPS: .856
    Righties OPS: : .602

    Career
    Lefties OPS: .831
    Righties OPS: .665

    So although Target Field may keep a few in the park, LH batters will still do a ton of damage on Arroyo. When you look in the division, as of now, the Royals have a few LH bats and the Indians are the platoon kings. Tigers and White Sox are RH heavy.

    I love the idea of the vesting option on the third year. If I have to give three years guaranteed, I'd much rather sign Feldman.

  3. #23
    Tim Hudson got 2-years $23 million from the Giants. Why should the Twins give more to Arroyo? If they're going to focus on the 2nd tier pitchers, I'd rather they pursued Kazmir, Feldman, or Hughes.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    978
    Like
    3
    Liked 16 Times in 13 Posts
    I've seen that people say Target Field is hard on LHB. Can someone point me to data over time, and not just yearly park factors? Target Field has fluctuated each year in terms of overall park factors, and in the last two years they have been above 1.0 for runs scored and even for HR in 2012.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    237
    Like
    16
    Liked 35 Times in 30 Posts
    Im not sure but i dont think u can use performance stats like era in contracts. They get around it with games played ip and bonuses for silver slugger cy young etc. i dont think u see any bonuses or vesting options based on era or homers etc. just games ip ab Im not a huge fan of arroyo but could handle him on a two year with vesting option

  6. #26
    Arroyo would make a good addition to the rotation in 2014, but hopefully by 2015 or 2016 we will have Meyer and May up, making Arroyo unneeded. A two year contract with a team option year for year 3 – or a combination player option and team option - or a vesting option for year 3 would be good.

    I thought TR said he did not want longer contracts for someone on "the wrong side of 30"? Arroyo would certainly be on the wrong side.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    595
    Like
    185
    Liked 74 Times in 55 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Agree -- 100%!

    23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=P&season=2013

    To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=2013&teamid=0

    You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

    They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.
    Great Research!

    Thanks for doing that. Might be why the Twins seem to be so much higher on him than it 'seems' on other pitchers.

    Because, that's an unreasonablely high amount vs LH...

    Even that Batting average...

    LH hit .292 off of him.
    RH hit .215 off of him.

    Versus RH...if his total splits...he'd be a top 5 pitcher in the game annually.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-22-2013 at 01:28 PM.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
    Posts
    872
    Like
    12
    Liked 49 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    I've seen that people say Target Field is hard on LHB. Can someone point me to data over time, and not just yearly park factors? Target Field has fluctuated each year in terms of overall park factors, and in the last two years they have been above 1.0 for runs scored and even for HR in 2012.
    TF has indeed turned out to be pretty neutral overall despite the early concerns. LHB HR factor has been relatively consistent. BP doesn't give you 2013 data without an account, but here's 2010-2012:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1384402
    YEAR TEAM SIDE Home PA Away PA Home HR Away HR FB Factor GB Factor LD Factor PU Factor 1b Factor 2b Factor 3b Factor HR Factor Runs Factor
    2012 MIN RHB 3220 3133 106 90 103 102 95 90 101 99 127 107 105
    2012 MIN LHB 3023 3047 61 72 101 100 97 104 101 99 155 93 98
    2011 MIN RHB 3265 3213 83 78 107 101 93 100 105 98 103 102 100
    2011 MIN LHB 2868 2884 43 60 106 101 89 94 100 94 94 86 97
    2010 MIN RHB 3143 3282 63 98 110 104 87 99 101 106 99 84 96
    2010 MIN LHB 2987 2951 53 83 104 101 91 98 103 105 116 82 98

  9. #29
    On Vacation All-Star
    Posts
    4,139
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    35
    Liked 433 Times in 263 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Agree -- 100%!

    23 of his 32 HRs in 2013 were vs LH batters. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=P&season=2013

    To account for home and away, we can look at the park factors for HRs as a LH hitter on the Twins vs the Reds: 89 vs 110. Reds were 5th highest, Twins were 3rd lowest. Even RH shows a difference: 97 vs 114. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...=2013&teamid=0

    You could reasonably assume Arroyo would have given up 5-7 fewer HRs as a Twin. I'm sure the Twins have noticed this. It also makes me like the idea of Phil Hughes for the same reason -- right-handed flyball pitchers.

    They seem to have been targeting groundball pitchers even as recently as last offseason, but their playing environments say they should tweak that focus and maybe they've noticed that.
    Check his HR/FB against LHB in that link. 18.9. This is too high and will regress towards 10-11% which would take care of 10 or so of those 23 HRs. So he would likely give fewer HRs that the 5-7 less you are thinking... But I agree, TF kills lefty HRs, unless they are Thome or Arseeya

  10. #30
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
    Posts
    607
    Like
    19
    Liked 42 Times in 31 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Arroyo is an annual leader among Gopher-ball Pitchers (HR allowed)...

    I guess part of that is pitching 200 innings each year.

    But who else has pitched 200 innings annually...how are his HR allowed numbers?

    Home Runs
    2006 NL 31 (2nd)
    2007 NL 28 (8th)
    2008 NL 29 (6th)
    2009 NL 31 (2nd)
    2010 NL 29 (3rd)
    2011 NL 46 (1st)
    2012 NL 26 (5th)
    2013 NL 32 (1st)


    I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.
    FYI
    Ballpark Factors for HR
    Great American Ball Park - Cincinnatti - 1.338
    Target Field - 0.802

    This might have something to do with it. I would think Arroyo would like the change.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
    Posts
    2,773
    Like
    1,599
    Liked 1,620 Times in 807 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    So when considering expensive upper-tier pitchers who are 30, we're told that Terry Ryan would be, in his own words, "very cautious". But when shopping for an affordable back of the rotation starters, a three year deal for a 37 year old with weak peripherals is Kool and the Gang?

    Lately Ryan has seemed bent on eroding his credibility, and in that sense a three year deal for Arroyo is a perfect fit.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 11-22-2013 at 04:55 PM.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    176
    Like
    4
    Liked 5 Times in 3 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    Alright sports fans, how about we look at things with a dose of reality.

    Gibson might make the team out of spring training, Meyer should be here around the all-star break, maybe sooner. Mays might get a September call up, but probably 2015, along with Darnell. The big guns, Stewart, Berrios & Gonsalves arrive 2016, and there are other names on the prospect list that will get shots during this time period.

    Okay now, the team has to get to these kids and maybe have some veteran leadership to help guide them along. 3 year contracts would be best, but then you are getting Arroyo, Capuano, etc... older type pitchers that (hopefully) eat innings.

    To get Garza, Nolasco, Santana, or Jiminez they would have to go 4 or 5 years, thereby postponing the arrival of prospects or putting the team in the position of having to try to trade them after 3 years, which sends a bad message to future free agents about signing here.

    If the team (and I mean Ryan) sticks to past protocol, we'll see one (or two) of Kazmir, Floyd, Pelfrey, Hughes, Capuano and maybe Narveson on a one or two year make good deal and Arroyo or whoever will take 2 or 3 years guaranteed.

    I personally would like to see Garza for 4 or 5, Arroyo for 3 and Kazmir or Pelfrey (preferably Kazmir because he is LH) for 1 or 2. This gives the team a veteran presence for a few years and allows a rehab project a chance to rebuild value while not holding back any prospects.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,474
    Like
    66
    Liked 145 Times in 94 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30
    Arroyo had a FIP of 4.49 leading to a WAR of 0.8. While it helps to change parks, he would have to face a DH in the AL.

    This is a pitcher who over the last 3 seasons had a cumulative WAR of 1.7. Correia has the same total in fewer innings. It is not reasonable to expect he will do better over the next three at his age.

    Steamer does project him for 1.7 next year (Correia 1.6).

    Which pitcher will have more WAR over the next three years? Worley or Arroyo? I would bet on Worley though it will likely be Arroyo in the first of the three years. The Twins could DFA Worley while paying Arroyo millions.

    Note: WAR numbers are from fangraphs.

  14. #34
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    310
    Like
    4
    Liked 42 Times in 28 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Hudson would be a fair comparison but he is going to a NL team with a pitchers park on the west coast who is a WS contender. If the Twins had wanted Hudson they would have had to go 3 years.

    I think a 3/36 with a 5 mill buyout on the last is probably what it would take to get him. Whetehr you think that is an overpay or not I can't see it being less to get them to come to MN.

  15. #35
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    730
    Like
    26
    Liked 56 Times in 45 Posts
    Blog Entries
    9
    Another way to structure the contract is as a 2 year 24 million with the 3rd as an option with a 4 million buyout or 12 million salary. that would make the contract a 2/28 which is going to be the highest 2 year average he is gonna find or a 3 year 36 million which he is gonna have to be real bad and have internal replacements ready to go for us not to pick up the option.

  16. #36
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
    Posts
    872
    Like
    12
    Liked 49 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Arroyo had a FIP of 4.49 leading to a WAR of 0.8. While it helps to change parks, he would have to face a DH in the AL.

    This is a pitcher who over the last 3 seasons had a cumulative WAR of 1.7. Correia has the same total in fewer innings. It is not reasonable to expect he will do better over the next three at his age.
    You're capitalizing on the one outlier and worst season of his career in 2011 by using 3 seasons. You'll say that's relevant because they are talking about a 3 year contract, but it's still an arbitrary cutoff that captures his one and only negative WAR season.

    In a different light, I could tell you he's averaged 2.2 WAR every season for the last decade.

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,474
    Like
    66
    Liked 145 Times in 94 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30
    I used baseball reference play index to find all 36 year old starters who started at least 28 games.

    I found 28 pitchers. Those 28 pitchers averaged 3.2 WAR with 21 pitchers over 2. (I used BR WAR as it is tied to their play index).

    G IP W L K BB >2 WAR
    Age 36 32 204 14 10 147 64 21
    Age 37 31 176 12 9 125 57 12
    Age 38 24 137 9 7 97 43 11
    Age 39 18 103 7 6 69 32 7

    Even in the first season of the contract there is a significant drop in pitchers who baseball reference values at 2+ WAR. By age 39, only 25% of the pitchers are at that level.

    There were 8 pitchers who aged well and account for most of the age 38 and 39 stats. Those pitchers were Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells.

    If the Twins put Bronson Arroyo in that class, they should absolutely give him a multiyear contract. If not, anything beyond a one year deal would be a foolish investment to appease the fans in hopes of generating interest and ticket sales.

    Edit: Baseball reference has a similar pitchers through age 36 on Arroyo's page. While none of the 8 mentioned above landed on his list, several were on the original list of 28. John Burkett(#1) and Tim Belcher(#3) should be of particular interest to any team considering signing Bronson. They both signed 2 year deals following a solid 36 year old season. Burkett had two seasons worthy of a #5 starter and retired not making it to 39. Belcher was awful in his 33 starts for Anaheim posting ERAs above 6 at age 37 and 38 before retiring.
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 11-23-2013 at 10:11 AM. Reason: Add similar pitchers

  18. #38
    Not high on Arroyo, never really have been. I'd rather see the Twins target Kazmir and Hughes. (My pipe dream is Tanaka , but...it will never happen). I've got no problem with 3 year contracts for FA SP's. I just don't want to mess with 36-37 year olds that will be 40 by the end of their contract. We need S-Pitching...NOW. We will still need it 2-3 years from now when the young guns are either already up with the big club or soon to arrive. I realize that Target Field would play far more favorably to a pitcher like Arroyo than Cincy's. Still, I'd much rather spend my hard earned money on younger, American League pitchers like Kazmir and Hughes. Would Arroyo be better than what we currently have? Heck yes! But how low does Terry Ryan want to set the bar???

  19. #39
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
    Posts
    6,515
    Like
    3,540
    Liked 3,026 Times in 1,290 Posts
    I'd rather put the money into Garza. Arroyo has no chance of being a difference maker.

    And I completely disagree with any theory that depends on Target Field somehow making any pitcher better than he actually is.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  20. #40
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,644
    Like
    9
    Liked 53 Times in 34 Posts
    Age 37 and 38 might not be a problem. The only way the third year should be added if it were of less value and had incentives, or if the total contract of three years gets you a bit above those contracts that are for two years.

Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.