11-21-2013, 06:33 PM #1
Twins 39 Man Roster... Now what... Here's Mine.
Sign AJ to catch... Trade for Bonofacio and Sign Two Free Agent Starters... Two from Nolasco, Kazmir or Arroyo are my choices. I'll settle for Pelfrey as the 2nd guy but only as the 2nd guy.
Stop reading right there for the short version.
Continue reading for longer version reasoning.
Replace one of those Starter options with Tanaka... If the scouting department puts him on par with Darvish because he will cost as much or more than Darvish did... If he is on par or close with Darvish... Man up and compete for him. We need a Front Line starter more than the usual suspects with price tags that high need one. If your scouts think he is solid... Trust your scouts and get him.
Shane Wahl... It's Ok... I'm not a huge fan of Nolasco either... I just think he's the best choice because I'm not a fan of any of them. At the very least... His 2013 was pretty good.
Basically... I'm in a tough place. I'm not overwhelmed with the FA options. I think the only Reasonable Major League Trade Chip is Glen Perkins and I'm not in favor of trading our valuable young trade chips. A quick fix of the Twins for 2014 is tough.
I think you have one chance... Pitching depth of marginal talent and energy lineup guys if you can find them.
Looking at the 40(39) man Roster: Here's how I feel in November 13'... Disclaimer: I don't know which players are option considerations. So that could change things.
Opening Day I'm Comfortable With:
Kevin Correia--Right now he's our top starter
Sam Deduno-- Shoulder issue scare... Without that issue he is our top starter... Blind faith he's healthy.
Kyle Gibson-- He may get lit up but we need him to not get lit up so roll the dice and plan for him to start in the rotation.
Insurance Arms that should start in AAA or AA... I don't know anything about Johnson... The other 5 have something to prove and should be down to prove it.
Alex Meyer can leap past everyone eventually sometime in 2014. It's up to Alex.
That means we need Two Starters minimum via FA or trade. I can't see a trade happening that doesn't cost us young talent unless it involves Perkins.
That leaves FA and again with apologies to Shane... Nolasco is at the top of my list followed by Kazmir and Arroyo.
Tanaka... I haven't seen him... If the scouts are drooling over him. The Twins need to break the bank on him. If they are not drooling... Please don't break the bank on him.
The Lineup: Last year we didn't have enough speed and we didn't have enough power. The power has to return from those that can provide it because we were supposed to have power in 2013. We need to find some speed.
Opening Day with the holes I believe need to be filled.
DH Josh Willingham-- He has to rebound... Contract year... He just might. He has as much power as anyone in FA and we need it.
1B Joe Mauer-- He's 1B now.
2B Brian Dozier-- pray for a 2013 like 2014.. At the very least... His D is top of the league.
SS Pedro Florimon-- his defense is needed. SS's are expensive... I'm comfortable here.
LF Oswaldo Arcia-- We need his Power...
CF- Darin Mastroianni-- Yeah I Know... We need his speed and Hicks and Buxton Ain't ready. We need his speed so I'm rolling the dice.
RF Chris Parmelee -- He can do it... He's better defensively than Doumit and I think he has more hitting potential. He just has to catch up to the high fastball. I'm hoping Parm is the 2014 Dozier like rebound. If he struggles again... His out of town alarm clock will tick pretty loud. Presley, Plouffe, Hicks, Buxton, Herrmann and Colabello are replacement considerations and Willingham can be moved to OF from DH. Chris has to swim this year and I choose Parmelee over Doumit.
Backups that can help
C Chris Herrmann -- I'm alright with Chris in this role
INF-Eduardo Escobar -- Ditto
3B-OF Trevor Plouffe -- he's in my doghouse... He has to play himself out. He's too good to give up on and under performing too much to play everyday.
OF- Alex Presley-- he'll be a good backup
Players we don't need anymore and also have no trade value
Ryan Doumit-- We don't need him anymore. We just don't.
Minors Opening Day
C- Josmil Pinto-- I think he will be a good one... call him up when needed... Work on D some more but let's not hand him a job based on September.
C- Eric Fryer -- Whatever... Pulling for him but He ain't on my opening day roster. If called up... He might be Ok.
1B- Chris Colabello-- Power source if he become a little more traditional in his approach. Major league pitchers will eat him alive until he does.
1B- Kenny's Vargas
INF- Jorge Polanco
INF- Danny Santana
OF- Aaron Hicks-- he wasn't ready last year and he wasn't called up in September... Let him decide when he's ready by performing in AAA first.
Sano takes over at 3B mid season. If Sano advances like we hope he can.
That leaves two spots to bring in for opening day.
3B... I'd be very aggressive with the Royals trying to acquire Emilio Bonofacio. He's perfect for what I want. He can hold down 3B or provide competition for Plouffe until Sano arrives and easily move to another position if Plouffe gets it together or Sano comes up. The Twins need speed and Bonifocio is a serious base threat to pair with Mastro and of course Mastro in CF is questionable so Bonofacio can also play CF if needed until Hicks or Buxton are ready. He can also Backup at SS or 2B as well which gives Escobar competition. I really want Bonofacio... Wouldn't it be great if Kansas City took Ryan Doumit for him. I really want Bonofacio... I really really do.
C-- AJ... Bring him back... I want the club house vet pain in the backside guy. We have youth coming up that needs a tough player to serve as an example of how to Talk tough... Play tough... Be tough. AJ is perfect until Pinto proves himself. One year Contract... 3 million or 14 million... I don't care.A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".
11-21-2013, 06:37 PM #2
......"Trust your scouts and get him." Are these the same scouts that brought us Nishi?This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.
11-21-2013, 06:45 PM #3
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RB, I like it. I've got a total jones for Tanaka. If someone posts/pays $120 million, fine, I won't cry, but we need to be in the game. That's our one shot for a big upgrade, unless we trade some top-10 prospects, which I don't want to do.
11-21-2013, 06:56 PM #4
There is talk of a market for corner outfielders and WIllingham could garner the Twins something. But then the Twins would have to get a similar backup bat back, preferably someone who could be a higher grade Parmelee. I don't love the idea of Doumit as DH, I don't mind him as the backup catcher and a bench guy. I don't love the idea of Parmelee in the outfield. If Mastro can play, with Presly in right and Arcia in left, I could live with that as we would have a but more speed potential. Remember that Darin was stealing bases bigtime in 2012. Alex is supposed to be speedy but didn't do much in 2013.
I really wish we could get different players in place of Correia, Doumit and Willingham.
11-21-2013, 07:10 PM #5
Winston: Could be the same scouts... But that's good... You don't get burned like that twice. Do you? Well I have but other people don't... Do they?
Big Dog: I have the same Jones... Right now I think that Jones is a Frontline Starter Jones with a dash of hoping Tanaka is it.
Rosterman: I'm with ya on Doumit... I'm willing to run him through waivers to send him down. Even if we get the contract year bounce out of Doumit... What will that be worth? 15 Dingers... I thnk Parm can match Doumit's contract year bounce with his finally hitting to his potential bounce... I choose Parm over Doumit... That's the spot left for me.
Willingham is too important though... He's the only experienced hope for 30 dingers right now. He has to rebound... He just has to... Sometimes a contract year is the tonic needed. I agree... We can't afford to move him unless we get Jack Cust back.
However... I don't think there is a replacement for Correia. The SP Hole is too deep. We need all we can get. We need Correia. He was capable in 2013.
Last edited by Riverbrian; 11-21-2013 at 07:57 PM.A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".
11-21-2013, 08:29 PM #6
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All projections I've seen on Tanaka are that he isn't as strong as Darvish, and will end up costing more with the posting fee. I just don't see him as realistic.
My top choices for starters (in order) are 1) Garza - 4 years, $62MM with an option year based on reaching some goals would be fine with me. I'd love to see his personality back lighting fires in the clubhouse. 2) Kazmir - 2 years, $21MM with an option based on games started. Signing these two and I'd be all smiles. 3) Hughes - same contract as Kazmir would be fine. I think he'd be a much better pitcher at Target Field as opposed to Yankee Stadium. 4) Scott Feldman. His name hasn't been mentioned much. He had a pretty good year for the Cubs and Orioles and could possibly be flipped at the deadline, like the Cubs did. I think we could get him for under $8MM a year. Maybe one year and an option. 5) Nolasco. He's never pitched in the AL and I'm just very nervous about him. He's gonna want at least four years, and I'm hesitant to go that long. He's clearly going to get Vargas years at twice the price and I think that's too much. I'd much prefer Garza. And lastly 6) Arroyo. He's the oldest on this list and made over $16MM in 2013. He's not going to want to take a pay cut. That much money for a 38 year-old innings eater who doesn't strike out guys scares me. He's not all that much better than Correia was last year. I'd take him as a second signing, but I wouldn't be terribly excited. I'd take Pelfrey as a 3rd free agent signing for no more than we paid him this year.
I haven't yet thought about the rest of the team. Starters are my priority.
Last edited by ScottyB; 11-21-2013 at 08:31 PM.
11-21-2013, 08:34 PM #7
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Bono would be a nice get... Would they take Doumit for him? I'd give them a call. Heck, throw in a low C level prospect.
11-21-2013, 08:34 PM #8
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11-21-2013, 08:35 PM #9
11-21-2013, 10:59 PM #10
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I stopped at the short version. I do think Pelfrey will be in the rotation. We need a lot more though.
11-21-2013, 11:13 PM #11
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WAR = Wins Above Replacement, Correct? so i wonder what Miguel Cabreras WAR is? the Allstar MVP compared to. wait better yet! Robinson Cano 7.2 compared to Eduard nunez -1.5, that makes perfect sense as to what WAR is good for! just shows how much better your starter is that plays everyday compared to the back-up facing the tough pitching in tough situations, pretty much worthless, yes, I do agree with you!
11-21-2013, 11:35 PM #12
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Great Post Riverbrian!
I do agree with you like 90-95% we can all see what is going on. I like Ervin Santana!
But in business, it is tuff to get guys to come to minnesota to play in the snow for the first month then you have 1 month of nice spring, then 2 months of high humidity in the 80's-90's and then cools off fast on cool september nights.
also there is the cost factor, need to get cheap where cheap is due, yes get rid of doumit, trade bait, who doesn't need a descent RF/DH/C he is alright of a player! Worley just needs to go, see if we can get a 50th round draft pick for him. Diamond needs to prove himself again, Albers/Gibson Scare me! never knowif they'll get knocked out in the first or 2nd, or go the distance! Hendriks, i gave up on him, since he can't win ball games, if we could find a few more pitchers like Swarzak and Duensing who have shown they can pitch, and pitch the innings, would be great! they deserve more I'll tell you that right now.
We have a great pen! sure Roenicke and pressly, i remember gave up lots of runs at times, but they come back next few games and pitch great like the rest of the pen does all season long, Perkins will need more money when his contract is up too, he is a top 5 closer in the game also! Great work Twins on the bullpen!
Pinto at catcher, hope he leaves off where he did this past fall, herrmann is great backup there and OF.
Mauer good luck at first
Dozier I love at 2nd (All-STAR 2014)
Florimon, hit the ball please! Bartlett is lighting the fire
plouffe i think hes trying to work himself out of a job
willingham stay healthy please
mastrionni, hit the ball better we need you healthy and on the bases
arcia bring back the power
doumit you got dh
buxton, if your ready we'll need you
rosario you'll be fresh 2nd half
sano, plouffe may just hand you his job!
parmelee not much room for a player who has potential but will never prove it
hicks get your average up, we love everything about you, but your stinky average!
escobar utility man
colobello also needs to learn how to hit, you got power, need you on base too!
fryer whos fryer?
meyer, may, gibson, worley, ibarra, johnson, darnell, polanco, vargas, kepler, santana, The Twins need you guys, your time is this year, there is a reason why you are on the 40 man roster!
half these guys wont be here 2 years from now anyways!
11-21-2013, 11:42 PM #13
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right now all i see i
Ubaldo Jimeniz wants around $9M-10M per year, decline $8M from CLE
Chris Capuano LAD Declined a $8M offer could get for $5M-$6M
no clue what other pitchers want, but I'm sure many better pitchers want much more than that!
11-22-2013, 12:33 AM #14
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Well, my nightmare is this:
And this is not out of the realm of possibility. I view this as a complete abomination of management. Hopefully this is not the starting rotation.
11-22-2013, 05:47 PM #15
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11-22-2013, 08:14 PM #16
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Great post! Well reasoned, practical and affordable. Overall a definite improvement and I have to agree with most all of it.
Don't have a problem with Arroyo. He'd help lead the staff and provide a very steady influence. But I am scared of the 3rd year with an out or have it tied to a base with escalators. No real problem with Nolasco either. Once again steady, solid, definite improvement to depth and talent of the staff and helps us be more competitive.
I'd prefer Garza as our number 1 signing, 4-5 years and up to $15M a year based on track record and consistency. Love Kazmir as second signing! Not ruling out Hughes for pure stuff, youth and potential (Arroya & Nolasco also still) as well as Capuano.
Worley-Diamond-Albers-Johnson in the wings. Meyer eventually.
Tonkin or Pressley
Agee 100% on AJ. I like Pinto sharing time, a mix of youth and bats from both sides with pop. Each can double up some at DH and PH on occasion.
My INF help is Chad Tracy, a LHP bat off the bench to back up Mauer and platoon some with Plouffe. And he still provides value when Sano is ready.
LF: Pressley/Mastro and also spare OF when not in lineup
DH: Wilingham (occasional LF)
Escobar is Utility and occasional platoon partner with Floriman.
This leaves Doumit and Parmalee on the outside looking in, but available due to injury, Hicks not ready (but he is my Dozier-like improved player) or other unforseeables.
Hicks provides outstanding defense, speed and decent to good power. Even if learning on the job and hitting only .230-.250 with his glove, 30+ doubles and 20-20 potential he is an asset and helps the pitching.
11-22-2013, 10:24 PM #17
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This is what I'd roll with
Current 40 Man with adjustments:
Andrew Albers (remove)
Brian Duensing (not offered arb)
Position Players: (20)
Eric Fryer (remove)
Chris Colabello (remove)
Eduardo Escobar (remove)
Darin Mastroianni (remove)
This puts us at 35 players.
Sign AJ Pierzynski (1 year)
Sign Matt Garza (4 years)
Sign Phil Hughes (1 year)
Sign Gavin Floyd (option for 2015)
Sign Stephen Drew (3 years)
Draft Daniel Burawa (Yankees)
Add AJ Achter
This would be the new 40 man roster:
1. AJ Achter
2. Matt Garza
3. Phil Hughes
4. Jared Burton
5. Kevin Correia
6. Logan Darnell
7. Samuel Deduno
8. Scott Diamond
9. Casey Fien
10. Kyle Gibson
11. Liam Hendriks
12. Edgar Ibarra
13. Kris Johnson
14. Trevor May
15. Glen Perkins
16. Ryan Pressley
17. Anthony Swarzak
18. Caleb Thielbar
19. Michael Tonkin
20. Vance Worley
21. Daniel Burawa
22. Gavin Floyd
23. Ryan Doumit
24. AJ Pierzynski
25. Chris Herrmann
26. Josmil Pinto
27. Brian Dozier
28. Stephen Drew
29. Pedro Florimon
30. Joe Mauer
31. Trevor Plouffe
32. Jorge Polonco
33. Danny Santana
34. Kennys Vargas
35. Oswaldo Arcia
36. Aaron Hicks
37. Max Kepler
38. Chris Parmelee
39. Alex Presley
40. Josh Willingham
Opening Day 2014:
Bullpen: Burawa, Pressley, Swarzak, Fien, Perkins, Burton, Thielbar
Bench: Florimon, Herrmann, Presley, Parmelee
SP: Meyer, May, Darnell, Johnson, Diamond, Hendriks
*Changes by July 2014:
Add and promote Meyer drop Hendriks, send down Deduno
Add and promote Buxton drop and send down Presley
Add and promote Sano after Willingham trade
Move up Achter send down Pressley
Move up Floyd(rehabbing) send down Gibson( I think it's going to take him a few times)
Move up Pinto, send down Herrmann
Squad by July 2014:
Garza, Hughes, Corriea, Meyer, Floyd
Perkins, Fein, Burton, Swarzak, Achter, Burawa, Thielbar
Bench: Pierznyski, Parmelee, Plouffe(OF/IF), Florimon
** I won't get too far into moves for 2015, but it would set us up nicely to look something along the lines of this:
Perkins(trade at deadline), Thielbar, Fien, Burawa, Achter, Tonkin, Johnson
Bench: C: Turner , OF/3B: Plouffe, UTL: Florimon, Some type of bench bat in FA.
If most things or even some go right, this team will compete not only for a wildcard berth, it will compete for the Central Title.
*If we did similar moves with pitching this offseason, not necessarily same players, but similar years and an option year on a comeback guy like Floyd(really aren't a lot of others i'd do that with though) this would put us in a good position for solidifying our future rotation, while not blocking young up and coming pitchers. After 2015, Floyd would be off books and a spot for Stewart would be available if he could grab it.
I really think guys like Deduno/Diamond are going to be up and down guys for injuries after this season.
It'll be interesting to see how our bullpen shakes out.
A lot of people expect Fien, Thielbar to come back to reality. Some others think Burton can have a bounce back year, while Burton is the closest one to being a non-Twin. I would consider it possible that guys like Swarzak, Burton are not back in 2015, which would give guys like Tonkin, Achter, Zack Jones, etc a good chance to have considerate roles in the pen after 2014. I also think it'd be a pretty good idea to try and trade off Perkins during the 2015 season, if not this summer. A lot of things to consider, but it really depends how we are doing. If we somehow find a way to compete this summer, it'd be hard to unload him then and I would presume in 2015 we are definitely going to be competing, but we also should have some young power arms really knocking on the door by then, which makes it easier to replace an aging Perkins.
11-22-2013, 10:25 PM #18
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wow, that really got lengthy, sorry guys.
One thing I forgot to mention is that it really only climbs up our payroll for one season (2014). After that guys like Hughes, Willingham, Doumit, Pierzynski all come off the books. Which would bring payroll back under 100 or around it. Then a year later, Floyd comes off. This would really allow us to spend on a certain area if one of our prospects doesn't pan out that I am counting on in my depth charts there.
Last edited by twinscowboysbulls; 11-22-2013 at 10:27 PM.
11-22-2013, 10:41 PM #19
11-22-2013, 10:47 PM #20
However... I gotta admit... I'm really starting to like the idea of Bonofacio the more I think about it. He's fast... Hits for a decent average... He plays multiple positions so he can move when someone better comes along like Sano... Hicks... Buxton... And he's expendable if we somehow manage to fill all of our holes... In 2012 or so.A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".