Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456
Results 101 to 118 of 118

Thread: Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!

  1. #101
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    519
    Like
    0
    Liked 22 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    33
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    The number of walks he took by actully working a count probably is closer to single digits which is awful considering the lack of control from 20-year-old pitchers in Low A ball.
    It was 1 person that I originally was speaking to. Walker's walks are an issue as I stated. He could do better and should. That being said - I can't remember where I read it, but I saw that he was 9 for 12 with bases load with 3 grand slams last year. He also played with 2 strikes more than anyone on the Cedar Rapids team (while limiting his K rate).

  2. #102
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    594
    Like
    185
    Liked 74 Times in 55 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    First off, as it seems to be a problem here, Walker was only 21 during the entire 201 season for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Not 22, not 22, not 22, not 22.

    Born: October 18, 1991 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US (Age 22)

    The Kernels season ended in Sept 2013, which is the month before October.

    Per Baseball America article...

    AL Scout...

    “Walker is a great mistake hitter. I’ve kept the same (overall scouting grade) on him all the way through,” a pro scout for an American League club said. “For me, he’s still a slow-twitch guy. The jump to the Florida State League is when it comes out. There the breaking balls are a little sharper. (The pitchers) have better command.
    “I still have questions about Walker. I don’t know if he can catch up to good fastballs. He can hit the cripples, no doubt. He hits them a long ways.”


    When did the questions start...Summer 2011 during the Cape Cod League...

    skepticism about his hitting ability began two years ago with a really bad month.


    Over the final month of the summer college league season, Walker hit .089/.180/.156 with one extra-base hit and 23 strikeouts in 45 at-bats. With plenty of amateur scouts and front office executives checking in on him over that stretch, the lasting impression was of a hitter who seemed overmatched.


    NL Scout...

    “His power is unbelievable...In a home run contest for the Cape Cod League at Fenway (Park) . . . he made (Stanford’s) Austin Wilson look like he was hitting in Williamsport.”

    Also...on if Walker can take ground balls and handle 1B...he played 1B in college.


    Scouts and GMs alike can dream on the power in Walker's bat and the potential in his frame to unlock even more. His swing, however, needs plenty of refinement before he can tap into the power potential he has. He is frequently unbalanced throughout and his timing is inconsistent at best.

    Link:
    http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/...tt-walker.html

  3. #103
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    594
    Like
    185
    Liked 74 Times in 55 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

    BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

    Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

    How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

    a. Kenny Vargas
    b. Dalton Hicks
    c. Travis Harrison
    d. Adam Walker



    Year Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB BB/PA SO/PA
    Kenny Vargas 2012 21 Beloit MIDW A 41 186 154 22 49 10 1 11 36 0 28 41 0.318 0.419 0.610 1.030 3 15.1% 22.0%
    2013 22 Fort Myers FLOR A+ 125 520 457 68 122 33 1 19 93 0 50 105 0.267 0.344 0.468 0.813 3 9.6% 20.2%
    Dalton Hicks 2013 23 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 89 400 354 50 105 31 0 13 82 0 34 85 0.297 0.355 0.494 0.850 2 8.5% 21.3%
    2013 23 Fort Myers FLOR A+ 42 176 148 18 40 8 0 4 28 0 22 38 0.270 0.364 0.405 0.769 0 12.5% 21.6%
    Travis Harrison 2013 20 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 129 537 450 66 114 28 0 15 59 2 68 125 0.253 0.366 0.416 0.782 3 12.7% 23.3%
    Adam Walker 2013 21 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 129 553 508 83 141 31 7 27 109 10 31 115 0.278 0.319 0.526 0.844 3 5.6% 20.8%

    Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-20-2013 at 05:25 PM.

  4. #104
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
    Posts
    282
    Like
    39
    Liked 15 Times in 11 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    first off, as it seems to be a problem here, walker was only 21 during the entire 201 season for the cedar rapids kernels. Not 22, not 22, not 22, not 22.

    born: October 18, 1991 in milwaukee, wisconsin, us (age 22)

    the kernels season ended in sept 2013, which is the month before october.

    Per baseball america article...

    Al scout...



    when did the questions start...summer 2011 during the cape cod league...





    nl scout...




    also...on if walker can take ground balls and handle 1b...he played 1b in college.




    Link:
    http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/...tt-walker.html
    like!

  5. #105
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,270
    Like
    32
    Liked 120 Times in 78 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

    BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

    Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

    How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

    a. Kenny Vargas
    b. Dalton Hicks
    c. Travis Harrison
    d. Adam Walker
    I like Vargas bat best but he has zero defensive value so it has to be better. He is old for his level but he also has very little pro ball experience. Despite being 23 almost half of his MiLB experience came last year. His future in the MLB is becoming a .275/.350/.475/.825 DH for the Twins. And there's a lot more downside to that projection than upside.

    Walker is the best athlete but he is going to have to be more selective as he moves up because better pitchers won't give him good pitches to hit.

    Harrison is the opposite in some ways to Walker. Despite having a sweet swing he hasn't dazzled statistically. He walks a lot but also K's a lot. He's hit some bombs but only has a so-so .160 isoP so far. His offense is going to need to carry him because very few think he will stick at 3B.

    D.J. Hicks seemingly has no buzz and is even older than Vargas and is a step behind him on the depth chart. Hicks differs from Vargas since he played college ball and his significantly more baseball experience. His stats are similar to the rest but he seems to be org depth similar to Brock Peterson, Erik Lis and Garrett Jones from 5 yrs ago. One of those did become a solid role player though.

    I think Vargas is the best bet to be an MLB startable player (at DH). Walker and Harrison have higher ceilings but neither is likely to make the majors. The good news is that the Twins have several of these guys and combined one is likely to make it.

    Kepler kind of matches up with Harrison. He's a solid prospect that hasn't flopped but his raw skills haven't translated to his statline.

  6. #106
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,616
    Like
    257
    Liked 191 Times in 117 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

    BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

    Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

    How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

    a. Kenny Vargas
    b. Dalton Hicks
    c. Travis Harrison
    d. Adam Walker
    I like Harrison's chances to make the majors and be solid the best. And as a 1st round pick, the team will give him more slack to make it. I think Walker has more tools but he's far away. Hicks is a college guy in A+, hope he makes it but not really a big time prospect. I like Vargas (I saw him at ST, he's huge) but he really has to hit to make it.

    I'd go Harrison, Vargas/Walker, Hicks

  7. #107
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    639
    Like
    5
    Liked 28 Times in 13 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    So what's everyone's take on these four guys?

    BB% and K% rates apply (see far right).

    Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)?

    How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well?

    a. Kenny Vargas
    b. Dalton Hicks
    c. Travis Harrison
    d. Adam Walker

    .
    1 - Vargas
    2 - Harrison
    3 - Walker
    3 - Hicks

    At the start of the off-season I said if Vargas was added to the 40 man he could get a shot a at 1B sometime around July or August in 2014. - Because there wasn't that many options at 1B in the system. But now that Mauer is there, I don't think thats likely. However, if he continues to hit for power and get on base, he might get a shot in 2015. As a DH, right now he is being blocked by Willingham/Doumit/Colabello. All three of those guys probably won't be with the team in 2015, so he might be in the mix. He is a switch hitter and seems to hit OK from both sides of the plate but might be better from the right side. His ceiling is a power hitting 1B. And based on positional value, probably the lowest ceiling
    Harrison - He is supposed to have a great swing and is a hardworker. I dunno. I have seen bad comments on his D and he hasn't produced. But he is young and has decent plate discipline, maybe he can get it going. If he improves at the plate, I would say best case is 2016 arrival. He might have the highest "ceiling" of the 4 but he would have to learn how to play the OF.
    Walker - My feelings on him were already said. Unless he learns how to get on base, his ceiling is a 4th OF with some pop. If he makes it will be 2017. - But if he changes his approach at the plate and learns how to get on Base he would be at the top of this list.
    Hicks - He has the lowest ceiling but OK power. He is a 1B who adds some depth to the organization and could get a cup of coffee in 2017.

  8. #108
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    639
    Like
    5
    Liked 28 Times in 13 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    194 HR and up club. Sosa and Piazza had worse walk rates. Sosa was younger though. The rest were within a year (older or younger) and at A/A+ ball.

    The big thing is that BB%.
    .
    I grabbed a few of those names on this list
    Walker OB% was .319 - not good
    McGuire in A ball was .393
    Buhner was .392
    Sexson as a 19 Year old in A ball was .338

    High K% and even a Low BB% is fine if you can find other ways to get on base - especially if you got power. Walker needs to do that, if he does..MAN he could be fun. But I don't have a lot of hope on college guys who keep having the same issues.

  9. #109
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    519
    Like
    0
    Liked 22 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    33
    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post

    High K% and even a Low BB% is fine if you can find other ways to get on base - especially if you got power. Walker needs to do that, if he does..MAN he could be fun. But I don't have a lot of hope on college guys who keep having the same issues.
    Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

    If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.
    Last edited by lightfoot789; 11-20-2013 at 09:54 PM.

  10. #110
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    639
    Like
    5
    Liked 28 Times in 13 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

    If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.
    Hope you are right. I have never looked at runs scored as anything meaningful. I usually just ignore it right away. Maybe you are on to an underlooked stat, but I will leave that investigation to others with more time. And if he could become an impact bat it would be great!

  11. #111
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,616
    Like
    257
    Liked 191 Times in 117 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........

    If the point is that this will not last due to law of averages (ok). We will agree to disagree. I tend to believe in history and results over that history. Winners win or find a way to win. I want the dude who knows how to score and drive in runs with consistency. I'll take a poor mans version of Sano any day. Sano walks more (65 to 31) and K's more (27% to 20%) than Walker, but scored 3 more runs than Walker and drove in less. He's the number #3 player in all of baseball (with good reason / Awesome player). Sano in MLB at 21 - Walker at 24 - I'll take their adjusted learning curves and relish for years to come. I see the major improvements in both.
    Runs and RBIs are good but they are very team dependent. A guy like Mauer, for instance, gets ripped on for not getting enough RBIs but he actually knocks in a higher % of runners than many sluggers - he just doesn't get the chance with men on base enough. So judging runs scored in a minor league season doesn't tell you much about the individual prospect. Walker might have played against 3 pitchers who will be ML starters.

    Every kid in A ball has been a winner their whole life. They are amazing baseball players even if that's as far as they get. Do you know who Cole Garner is? In 06, as a 21 year old, he led all A ball in runs (100) while knocking 19 home runs and 40 doubles. He had a ISO well over .200, walk rate below 5% and a krate at 25%. He was a 26th round pick who managed to play 4 games in the majors. Jonathan Greene, Cody Johnson, Seth Fortenberry. All of these guys scored a lot of runs or hit a lot of home runs or both at A ball at the same age or younger. Johnson was a first round pick who hit 94 minor league home runs before he was 22. He was playing in the indy leagues at 24. Guys who dominated A ball are legion. They were all winners. But those who can't learn to control the strike zone usually don't make it to the majors.

    And that is what the concern about Walker is all about. No one doubts his tools - he could be a great player. But right now, he is not a great prospect b/c, based on his play, scouts worry about how his hitting approach will work as he starts to face better hitters. (Now, when I say not a great prospect I don't mean to diss him. He'd certainly be a top 10 prospect in other team's systems but right now he's more lottery ticket than prospect. I'm really glad the Twins have him).

  12. #112
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    594
    Like
    185
    Liked 74 Times in 55 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    Though just a small sample size...3 and myself. I tend to like Vargas the most, too.

    He lost a lot of 'development' with that 50 game suspension a couple years back (2011). It was due to taking Phentermine, which is used to help in weight loss.

    Ft. Myers had him listed as 6'5'' 274 this past season...

  13. #113
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,218
    Like
    368
    Liked 744 Times in 460 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Getting on base is one of the biggest keys to the game - so I agree. The biggest key, however, is to outscore your opponent. Can someone explain to me why this is not important? "I lead the league in scoring but I still don't get on base enough" - That means that all the people with higher OBP don't score more why? Thats my sabermetric question...........
    Well, to answer your sabermetric quesiton, runs scored is largely a metric of the guys behind you in the linup, just like RBI's is largely a metric of what the guys in front of you are doing. It has little to do with "knowing how to score" or "consistently driving in runs". They are horrible ways to judge a prospect. Getting on base is the best way because that's something largely in the batter's control, and the best way to outscore your opponent is to not make outs.

    The issue I think you are missing is that the stats don't simply translate up the chain. Things will change for him in Fort Meyers, just as they will change when he hits New Brittian, Rochester, and (hopefully) Minnesota. The question at hand has a lot to do with why he's so divergent with walks and Ks. If he's free swinging at pitches out of the zone, he's going to find that he will have to make adjustments as pitchers will pitch him out of the zone far more than they should. If his problem is that he simply cannot hit the breaking pitches, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in AA.

  14. #114
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
    Posts
    1,094
    Like
    15
    Liked 122 Times in 61 Posts
    Blog Entries
    77
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Well, to answer your sabermetric quesiton, runs scored is largely a metric of the guys behind you in the linup, just like RBI's is largely a metric of what the guys in front of you are doing. It has little to do with "knowing how to score" or "consistently driving in runs". They are horrible ways to judge a prospect. Getting on base is the best way because that's something largely in the batter's control, and the best way to outscore your opponent is to not make outs.

    The issue I think you are missing is that the stats don't simply translate up the chain. Things will change for him in Fort Meyers, just as they will change when he hits New Brittian, Rochester, and (hopefully) Minnesota. The question at hand has a lot to do with why he's so divergent with walks and Ks. If he's free swinging at pitches out of the zone, he's going to find that he will have to make adjustments as pitchers will pitch him out of the zone far more than they should. If his problem is that he simply cannot hit the breaking pitches, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in AA.
    I think this is a good explanation.

    After watching Walker in CR all season, my impression is that his case is more the former than the latter. It often felt like he just really likes to HIT and especially with runners on base. He gets off on driving in runs and that led him to expand his strike zone more than he should have. I think that's something experience and instruction can help him with. He may always be a bit of a "mistake hitter," but man can he hit those mistakes a long way.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  15. #115
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    594
    Like
    185
    Liked 74 Times in 55 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    More on Walker...

    Jerry (San Diego): Where would you rate Adam Brett Walker's power on the scouting scale? Do you anticipate he will make enough contact as a hitter to be a good prospect as he moves up through the minors or do you think his Ks will get the best of him?
    Jim Shonerd: At least a 70 raw power. As we’ve written elsewhere, he’s right there with Sano in terms of sheer power. Before this year, I would’ve said yes, strikeouts will be his undoing, but he’s made promising progress cutting them down.


    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...jim-shonerd-3/


    I'm highest on Vargas...Walker 2nd...Harrison and Dalton. My guess on Dalton is AAAA player at best.

  16. #116
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Posts
    6,435
    Twitter
    @sethtweets
    Like
    64
    Liked 347 Times in 183 Posts
    Blog Entries
    515
    Prospect-wise, it goes: 1.) Walker, 1b. Harrison, 3.) Vargas, 4.) Hicks.
    Power-potential wise: 1.) Walker, 2.) Harrison, 3.) Vargas, 4.) Hicks.

  17. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think clutterheart is right. Walker is a 22 year old college guy in low A ball. That's a scary krate. And, more frighteningly, his walk rate fell to about 5%.
    Walker is one of the prospects I tend to watch closely. The optimist in me hopes this guy learns some plate discipline and develops into a star. I know the odds are not good but wow what a boost it would be to our team if he turned into a star.

  18. #118
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
    Posts
    8,671
    Like
    4,726
    Liked 2,201 Times in 1,242 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    Walker is one of the prospects I tend to watch closely. The optimist in me hopes this guy learns some plate discipline and develops into a star. I know the odds are not good but wow what a boost it would be to our team if he turned into a star.
    I'm with you... The light bulb can come on at any time.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.