11-15-2013, 05:11 PM #1
The Twins Record with New Pitching.
Last year the Twins finished 66-96. So what is the potential bounce back for the Twins if they were to sign some of the rumored names? I will be using fWar (because it's convenient and at least fairly accurate)
The first question is how many pitchers should the Twins sign?
Essentially handling a full workload all year were:
Pelfey (29 GS, 2.1 WAR)
Correia (31 GS, 1.3 WAR)
Deduno & Albers Combo (28 GS, 2.0 WAR)
Hendriks & Diamond Combo (32 GS, -.4 WAR)
Walters, DeVries, Gibson, Worley, Hernandez Combo (42 GS, -.5 WAR)
Admittedly this isn't a perfect breakdown but there is at least a clear difference by WAR between the 3 slot and 4 slot. If we allow for Correia to remain as well as allot Gibson a slot as well, we realistically have 3 slots to fill. Obviously projecting Gibson is quite difficult but for now I'm going to assume some progression and grant him a WAR of 2.0 next year. Essentially the Twins right now are going to be 65-97 by WAR.
So which where do FA pitchers rank by WAR?
Nolasco: 3.0 WAR
Johnson: .5 WAR (1.0 if he pitches all year)
Arroyo: .8 WAR
Garza: 2.2 WAR
Hughes: 1.3 WAR
Feldman: 2.1 WAR
Santana: 3.0 WAR
Jimenez: 3.2 WAR
Haren: 1.5 WAR
Now this list is not exhaustive but it gives us a good idea. That is that the Twins can roughly expect 2-3 WAR from a pitcher if they were to sign him. Now as the Twins are supposed to be looking for 3 pitchers according to my science that would make by dollar amounts Kazmir, Feldman, and any of the 3.0 pitchers likely candidates to all be signed. That edges the Twins to about 8 wins better. That places them at 73-86.
Now I would like to think that it would improve by more then that since together the top 3 by WAR (Scherzer, Kershaw, and Sanchez) combined for 19.1 WAR which would bring them to 84-78.
11-15-2013, 05:26 PM #2
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Great post. I was going to do something like this but you beat me to it .
I'd like to add that I would personally use rWAR for our pitchers' performance because it's more results based but fWAR is better for the FA pitchers because it's more based on FIP, a more predictive stat.
With that in mind we only had 3 pitchers give us positive WAR last year. Correia, Deduno and Albers (barely). The other guys provided (-6.3) WAR. If Kazmir and Feldman provide 4+ WAR that is already over 10+ wins .
11-15-2013, 05:38 PM #3
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I would subtract the guys stats who are being replace and add the guys stats coming in and make an adjustment for the fact that the new guys probably have more innings then the outgoing group. Then look at the runs scored vs runs allowed formula to see where our record would be.
11-15-2013, 05:43 PM #4
11-15-2013, 05:56 PM #5
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fWAR rewards him with a (2.1) WAR mostly in part due to his 3.99 FIP. Which indicates Pelfrey was unlucky and deserved an ERA closer to 4.
11-15-2013, 05:57 PM #6
Need a control for this experiment:
Do the same exercise for the 2012 team and the new pitchers in the 2013 team and see if the wins you would come for the 2013 team will match what they got.
11-15-2013, 08:24 PM #7
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but your math of adding those 3 pitchers equating to 8 wins above the 2013 record assumes they are replacing 0 WAR pitchers. The pitchers they would replace (Worley, Albers, Pelfrey, Hendriks, Diamond) weren't 0 WAR pitchers, they were negative WAR pitchers, so I believe the net gain is closer to 12-13 wins above the 2013 record.
11-16-2013, 07:30 AM #8
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I think they are (rightly) counting on Gibson to improve. I'd expect a positive WAR from him next season and I think he could improve again in another year as well. If they sign two pitchers, they are replacing Pelfrey's 2.1 and the disastrous Hendriks/Diamond combo. I think they can add a few WAR to that total pretty easily, and if Gibson goes positive you are looking at a team that could win more than 70 games. I think the big key will be a resurgence from guys with a disappointing offensive seasons. Willingham and Doumit need to look like the 2012 version. Parmelee and Plouffe need to find what was lost, and Arcia needs to click. His minor league career says that he's going to be significantly improved this year.
11-16-2013, 07:30 AM #9
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11-16-2013, 09:27 AM #10
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I would also consider the following.
Any group of age 30+ pitchers can be expected to decline.
FIP based WAR is dependent on strike out and walk numbers. Both of those numbers take a hit when Ryan Doumit is catching. Josmil Pinto may be better than Doumit, but he is likely to be far below average also. With the current catching, any pitcher coming from an average or better catching staff can expect a decline in K/BB numbers and there a decline in FIP and WAR.
If the Twins were to sign a trio of those guys ( Kazmir, Nolasco, Jimenez) I would expect their combined WAR to be closer to 6 than 9.
I think the Twins can expect both Gibson and Worley to be better. I also think Meyer should be in the rotation from opening day. As a trio, they may project in the 4 WAR range. In 2015, they will improve and the signed trio will take another decline. At that point they could project better.
11-16-2013, 10:26 AM #11
We need pitchers that will consistently go deeper into the game.
Hopefully the Twins defense will hold up, with Mauer stretching at first base. Willingham AND Parmelee in the corners is not my idea of outfield fun. Arcia is a bit betetr out there, but not much.
I can live with Florimon and Dozier up the middle. Still have trouble with Plouffe at third.
We do need an experienced catcher behind the plate if we sign a couple of vets. Pinto is best served at Rochester working regularly with the Twins pitchers of the futures and...working...working...working. I would almost like to see Steinbach at Rochester helping Pinto personally.
The Twins also need to score 4 runs a game consistently. Can they do that with a lineup of Presley/Dozier/Mauer/Willingham Doumit/Plouffe/Arcia/newctacher/Florimon?
Perhaps. I would like to see more punch from Doumit. I want a good hitting catcher (A.J.). I would love to see Plouffe a bench player, but not sure pushing Sano at the beginning of the season would give us much more than last year's Hicks results.
I think the bullpen can be a solid given, as long as it doesn't need to be overworked like it did last year. And pieces that could potentially be jettisoned (Swarzak, Fien, Duensing, Burton) can be replaced by lower cost free agents (Crain and Hawkins, Neshek and Tonkin/Achter from the minors, and new duties for the likes of Hendriks and Diamond).
The Twins should try and turn their bullpen strength with a prospect for a decent hitting temporary third baseman, an Adam Lind-type for DH, or something. Burton will never be more valuable. Swarzak is a stud worthy of something. Duensing is a lefty with value.
11-17-2013, 07:40 PM #12
I was more or less pointing out that even without other changes, the Twins likely aren't going to be great next year.
11-18-2013, 05:18 AM #13
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11-18-2013, 07:26 AM #14
11-18-2013, 09:13 AM #15
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11-18-2013, 09:29 AM #16
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Would love to see the 2012 season + the 2013 pitchers acquired.
Also, our offense only averaged 3.96 runs per game. I took 3 Clayton Kershaw's based on their game logs (can't go by 'average' for every single game) and we still only ended up with 90 wins with our 2013 offensive production. Which, in case you didn't know, the Twins would NOT have made the playoffs with that record as Cleveland and Tampa had 92 wins a piece.
We struck out the 3rd most times in MLB history...
Predict away, it's a long Winter.
Especially now waiting to see how Buxton/Sano perform out of these 'injuries'...hope they don't prove to be 'nagging'...
11-18-2013, 10:28 AM #17
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11-18-2013, 10:54 AM #18
It is not even that simple. You got to put every game in a curve, right a pretty complex algorithm and overlay potential replacements (and potential changes in the competition) to get to a closer guess.
But my point is that a better pitcher can affect a 2 run loss but not a 10 run loss...
Edit: I went back and counted. The Twins lost 38 games with a differential of 2 runs or less in 2013.
Last edited by Thrylos; 11-18-2013 at 10:58 AM.
11-18-2013, 10:19 PM #19
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