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Thread: Matt Garza?!

  1. #81
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    The pick will be in the early 40s. If you look at the top prospects list on MLB, four of the top 15 fall right around that number. Four of the top 15 were international signings.
    Tiajuan Walker (43)
    Nick Castellanos (44)
    N. Syndergaard (38)
    Billy Hamilton (57)

    The draft pick is really an additional reason not to sign 5 year guys, especially the group were talking about getting 5 years. (with the exception of Tanaka/Garza) The benefit is that IF the guy performs we get to 500 or even maybe a little better. They MIGHT make a 2-3 game difference if they really perform the way you hope. For those couple of wins you take on the risk of them being dead weight in the last couple years of their contracts when we could possibly be contending. The opportunity cost is the $18M that you could have invested to should be much improved by the presence of Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Dozier,Rosario and May. No, they might not all pan out but the odds are pretty good with that group and some others. Do you want the salary to add when these players are contributing or now to a team that is still a couple years a way?
    I want it now for the following reasons:
    1. As young talent comes up, you want them to be in a culture of winning not 90+ losses per year. Are they going to be winning 90 games a year? Probably not but you want them to be in a better culture than what we have had the last 3 years.

    2. If we do not bring in a better product, attendance will sink even more, the budget will shrink and we won't have as much money to spend down the road.

    3. Free Agents will be just as much a crap shoot down the road as this year so it is good to bring them in sooner than later so you can weed out the bad now instead of when you want to be winning World Series rings

    4. The future budget will not be hurt by current spending because WE ARE THAT MUCH UNDER BUDGET RIGHT NOW! The 52% that has been thrown out says we have about 65 million to spend and I have yet to see a blueprint that spends 50 million AND we have 17 million (?) coming off the books next year. There should be NO fear of future budgets less than 5 years from now.

    5. A more competitive team next year will make it easier to convince free agents to come next off season and put us over the hump.

    There are probably other reasons I am not thinking of...

  2. #82
    Senior Member Triple-A Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    How old is Matt now? 29. Could we possibly imagine a fully matured Matt Garza returning to the Twins? I proposed it in jest when Delmon went back to the Jays, but hell, I'd overspend to get him back, maybe as an adult to boot.

  3. #83
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    Grant Paulsen from Baseball America was discussing the available FA pitchers on his radio show on MLB Radio yesterday. A caller asked if was worth it to give up a draft pick for this group of relatively weak and risky SPs. His answer was it depends on if you are contending or what point you are in a rebuild. He immediately followed that point with the Twins as an example of a team that should not be giving up draft picks at this point in a rebuild.

    If we go back over the past 10 years, will we find any examples of teams in the Twins position in terms of rebuilding that signed free agent SPs that required 5 year deals? Pitchers on the wrong side of 3 tend to decline. Obviously, some perform at a high level into their late 30s but the odds are low. On the other hand, what happens if you sign Jimenez to 5 years at 17-18M and he goes back to an ERA+ in the 70s like he was in 2011-2012 or even worse as he approaches 35 years of age. You’re not trading him even if you give him away.
    I disagree with Grant Paulson. The Twins have tons of prospects and losing a 2nd rd pick is in no way comparable to trading a top prospect (like Myers) for a good starter. That's a bad move for a rebuilding team. It would be greatly beneficial for a team like the Twins to have something resembling an MLB to start adding Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Stewart/Rosario/etc to. People talk about wasting Mauer's prime but at the same time the Twins are only guaranteed 6 yrs of these potential studs. I'm against spending 3 yrs trying to build a competitive team around them.

    The problem if Ubaldo tanks has very little to do with the draft pick. It has everything to do with signing him to a long FA contract and that's an issue for every FA contract. If you want to avoid that then never go after FA's but that would be foolish for the Twins to completely avoid.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Is it possible that the difference is due to the defense behind him? Isn't that the point of the FIP variations?
    It could be partly due to that but Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez pitched in front of the same defense for half a decade and consistently performed as good or better than their xFIP.

    Some pitchers just crap the bed and there is enough data that says Nolasco might be one of those guys. Maybe he can't pitch out of the stretch well. Maybe he really implodes when a few bad things happen and gives up huge innings. Maybe he is like Liriano and just hates the Marlins and needs a change of scenery to motivate to stay focused in games.

  5. #85
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    This team can contend as early as 2015, sign a guy like garza now for 4-5 years so you have that in place for your "run", grab another high risk high reward guy like Johnson and you suddenly have something to build on moving forward. Aim for .500 in 2014, and then aim for 90 wins in 2015.

  6. #86
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spiritofvodkadave View Post
    this team can contend as early as 2015, sign a guy like garza now for 4-5 years so you have that in place for your "run", grab another high risk high reward guy like johnson and you suddenly have something to build on moving forward. Aim for .500 in 2014, and then aim for 90 wins in 2015.
    exactly!!!

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I disagree with Grant Paulson. The Twins have tons of prospects and losing a 2nd rd pick is in no way comparable to trading a top prospect (like Myers) for a good starter. That's a bad move for a rebuilding team. It would be greatly beneficial for a team like the Twins to have something resembling an MLB to start adding Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Stewart/Rosario/etc to. People talk about wasting Mauer's prime but at the same time the Twins are only guaranteed 6 yrs of these potential studs. I'm against spending 3 yrs trying to build a competitive team around them.

    The problem if Ubaldo tanks has very little to do with the draft pick. It has everything to do with signing him to a long FA contract and that's an issue for every FA contract. If you want to avoid that then never go after FA's but that would be foolish for the Twins to completely avoid.
    Paulen said the same thing. I just did a poor job of repeating his point. I made his point with the example I posed earlier. 5 year contracts do not make sense for a rebuilding team. I asked in the previous post for examples of teams in a similar stage of rebuilding that signed the top available FA SPs to 5+ year deals. indignance

    Garza at 4 years + Johnson is a reasonable plan but if Johnson pitches like he did last year we are still in trouble. Garza alone is not going to make that much difference and it will be a long season unless a lot of other things go right. Garza, Orroyo, and Johnson would be a much better plan. Of course, that is very optimistic to believe we could land all three but we can hope.

    If the signing of top FA SPs is a good strategy, there should be plenty examples of where it has happened. I cant think of ONE. In other words, there is not a GM that would support this thinking. So, for all of you who are indignant about Ryan's reluctance to sign such players, let's see some examples. If this is very rare or even non-existent, what should we conclude. Are all of the GMs incompetent. Are they all just cheap?

  8. #88
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    The Twins were frustrated by his over-reliance on trying to blow his FB past people and at least it looks like he's changed that. With the Twins, he was throwing his 4-seamer about 63% of the time and the slider about 17%.

    He's around the same total percentage with the FB last year, but fangraphs says he added a 2-seamer to the mix around 2010. His use rates last year were 45% with the 4-seam, 19% 2-seam, 24% slider. He'll mix in a few curveballs, but has thrown his change-up (his worse pitch according to pitch values) less and less.

    I was skeptical at first, but color me intrigued after looking into it more.

    Oh, and John, I'm sure they finally got around to reading through all of the threads on TD and realized it was time to change...
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Literally just a week ago, I would've said that the chances that the Twins sign any pitcher for more than $10M/year were less than 5%. Now I feel its probable. There are just too many rumors and discussions with some of the better names on this market. I don't know why the change in direction and philosophy, but whatever the reason, I'll take it.
    Last edited by jay; 11-18-2013 at 09:21 AM.

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