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Thread: Article: Twins making a "strong push" for Nolasco

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Article: Twins making a "strong push" for Nolasco


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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Likewise, effectiveness wanes noticeably too as well as starting pitchers begin approach their mid-life crisis.
    Obviously Parker backed up this statement, but it's another factor in showing that Terry Ryan isn't wrong in thinking that free agency is not the best way to build a team. You're paying (more than any other team is willing to) for what the pitcher did before he became a free agent at 30-32 years old, but in most cases, you won't get the same caliber of pitcher.

    Obviously the fact that Nolasco has managed to stay healthy this long is great! In my cynical mind, it also increases the likelihood that sometime during his 4-5 year contract, he's going to miss a year or more to go along with not pitching as well.

    It's a scary proposition when $60-100 million is on the line.

    That said, I'd be happy if the Twins signed Nolasco and Kazmir!!

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    The problem with focusing on risk in free agent contracts is that the price already reflects the level of risk. In other words, if someone like Nolasco was risk-free, he would be massively more expensive. The most extreme examples are short term deals for guys like Josh Johnson, but the principle impacts all player contracts.

    The Twins' risk is also mitigated by the fact that they are so far below their self-imposed budget constraints. They can sign multiple guys and still have plenty of space.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Obviously Parker backed up this statement, but it's another factor in showing that Terry Ryan isn't wrong in thinking that free agency is not the best way to build a team.
    Well... Yes. But, if you don't do that (and some teams have proven that you can build World Champions via free agency) you got to follow the Cardinals' and Tigers' model and play young players. Look at Wacha this season. Verlander was in the majors the year after he was drafted. In those teams Gibson and Meyer (and not the likes of Hernandez, Albers et al) would have started for the Twins last season in the majors. I'd give you the injury concerns. But this season, Meyer is healthy. He should be in the starting 5. But the Twins do not do that either.

    Cannot have it both ways, otherwise you do not build winners.
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    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    If you're looking for the perfect player at the perfect price that is certain to perform above his pay grade for the entire contract you'll be losing 96 games every year waiting.

    They have the money, get us some better players so this team is at least watchable next year.

    Please!!

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Well... Yes. But, if you don't do that (and some teams have proven that you can build World Champions via free agency) you got to follow the Cardinals' and Tigers' model and play young players. Look at Wacha this season. Verlander was in the majors the year after he was drafted. In those teams Gibson and Meyer (and not the likes of Hernandez, Albers et al) would have started for the Twins last season in the majors. I'd give you the injury concerns. But this season, Meyer is healthy. He should be in the starting 5. But the Twins do not do that either.

    Cannot have it both ways, otherwise you do not build winners.
    That's a pretty nice false dichotomy. This idea that the Twins don't promote guys is silly. Look at Buxton, look at Arcia, look at Mauer. Also, look at what Wacha and Verlander did in their short time in the minors. None of our guys have done that. Those teams don't have some set perogative that any pitcher they draft will be in the majors the next year. It is very much the exception to every team's rule.

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    MLB Trade Rumors had Nolasco and Jimenez in the same ballpark for expected contract (Nolasco 3/36, Jimenez 3/39 or 4/52).

    If you have to go 4/52 for Nolasco (which recent rumors are suggesting), how does that compare to 5/75 for Ervin Santana? Since 2008, Santana's got a 104 ERA+ to Nolasco's 95, with an added 10-20 IP per year to boot. Gives you a little more workhorse/ace potential.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The problem with focusing on risk in free agent contracts is that the price already reflects the level of risk. In other words, if someone like Nolasco was risk-free, he would be massively more expensive. The most extreme examples are short term deals for guys like Josh Johnson, but the principle impacts all player contracts.

    The Twins' risk is also mitigated by the fact that they are so far below their self-imposed budget constraints. They can sign multiple guys and still have plenty of space.
    I really like this comment, and I think that it's a point that is often missed. The "price" that a GM pays for a free agent is already adjusted for the perceived risk of that player geting injured or underperforming. It is also adjusted for the perceived "risk" that the player outperforms.

    Unfortunately, I think that in many cases the team that ends up signing a free agent is often the team that most severely underestimates the risk associated with the contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Obviously Parker backed up this statement, but it's another factor in showing that Terry Ryan isn't wrong in thinking that free agency is not the best way to build a team.
    Has anybody ever disputed this? Obviously it is preferable to draft cheap good pitchers, but when you fail at that for a number of years, "overpaying" for a free agent or two is much preferred to punting multiple seasons, especially when you have so few financial commitments over the next 4-5 seasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    MLB Trade Rumors had Nolasco and Jimenez in the same ballpark for expected contract (Nolasco 3/36, Jimenez 3/39 or 4/52).

    If you have to go 4/52 for Nolasco (which recent rumors are suggesting), how does that compare to 5/75 for Ervin Santana? Since 2008, Santana's got a 104 ERA+ to Nolasco's 95, with an added 10-20 IP per year to boot. Gives you a little more workhorse/ace potential.
    I wonder if Santana's partially torn UCL is a factor in the Twins interest. He's pitched with it for several years and has been durable, but it's a red flag and you'd have to think a guy with a partially torn UCL may not be the pitcher you want to give a four year contract out to despite his track record. It just seems like a time-bomb.

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    Ok, fine- if Twins sign oldish Arroyo and youngish Nolasco, then I can see stability to the SR, & added credibility for FA signings going forward, without breaking the budget.

    Question is: what are his contract terms, and why would he leave '14 faves LAD for MIN?

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    Senior Member Triple-A zchrz's Avatar
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    Yes free agency is a big gamble, I would like to see them bet on a player with a little more risk and a higher upside. Nolasco has consitency on his side, but his consitency is more of a solid 3rd or 4th starter. The risk is low that he flames out or struggles too much but its also a low probabilty he puts up better numbers and becomes a 2. Ubaldo on the other hand should cost in the same neighborhood of years and money, comes with more risk but could be a solid number 2 even possible ace. I think consistency can be had for cheaper than dominance if they are going to spend big on someone take the risk and the upside.
    Last edited by zchrz; 11-16-2013 at 05:51 AM.

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    I am deadset against Nolasco if the contract is for 5 years (or even 4). that's just silly money for someone that has had ERA's of 4.48+ for 4 out of the last 5 years. I would strongly prefer a contract extension to Correia and that shouldn't be viewed as an endorsement.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zchrz View Post
    Yes free agency is a big gamble, I would like to see them bet on a player with a little more risk and a higher upside. Nolasco has consitency on his side, but his consitency is more of a solid 3rd or 4th starter. The risk is low that he flames out or struggles too much but its also a low probabilty he puts up better numbers and becomes a 2. Ubaldo on the other hand should cost in the same neighborhood of years and money, comes with more risk but could be a solid number 2 even possible ace. I think consistency can be had for cheaper than dominance if they are going to spend big on someone take the risk and the upside.
    There's upside with Nolasco too. He gets Ks quite well and his peripherals scream number 2. Results on the other hand have said otherwise. I'm not sure the advanced metrics are right in calling this bad luck, but I do think that he's maybe one or to "ah ha" moments from suddenly meeting that potential.

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    There's upside with Nolasco too
    Upside? 101 ERA+ last year, four straight years prior below league average (less than 95 ERA+).

    If a guy's upside is "unrealized potential" you should be getting a discount or shorter term on him, like the Hughes 1-2 year suggestions, not the rumored 4/52 for Nolasco.

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    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    What happens in Rice Lake Wisconsin.

    1. When 30 people walk into the only liquor store at the same time.
    2. There are only 20 cases of beer left in the entire store.
    3. All the top brands of beer are gone
    4. Half of the cases left are "Natural Light" "Milwaukee's Best" and "Michelob Ultra".
    5. It's A Friday Night.

    AND... All 30 people got an extra 25 million dollars from a Rice Lake TV deal.

    I'm worried it might have an effect on the price of beer.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    What happens in Rice Lake Wisconsin.

    1. When 30 people walk into the only liquor store at the same time.
    2. There are only 20 cases of beer left in the entire store.
    3. All the top brands of beer are gone
    4. Half of the cases left are "Natural Light" "Milwaukee's Best" and "Michelob Ultra".
    5. It's A Friday Night.

    AND... All 30 people got an extra 25 million dollars from a Rice Lake TV deal.

    I'm worried it might have an effect on the price of beer.
    LIKE.

    But does it mean you don't buy the beer? And doesn't this happen every Friday night?

  18. #18
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    LIKE.

    But does it mean you don't buy the beer? And doesn't this happen every Friday night?
    I don't know but that TV deal could make this Friday night different than the others.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    I don't know but that TV deal could make this Friday night different than the others.
    RB, when you ran over the Business Manager carrying her coffee, did you get one of those sticky things for your helmet?

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Upside? 101 ERA+ last year, four straight years prior below league average (less than 95 ERA+).

    If a guy's upside is "unrealized potential" you should be getting a discount or shorter term on him, like the Hughes 1-2 year suggestions, not the rumored 4/52 for Nolasco.
    Precisely this. I am very confused by the Nolasco situation. Anyway, it would seem like the Twins could get any two of Kazmir, Hughes, Haren, Arroyo, Johnson, and the like for roughly $50 million over less than 4 years.

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