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Thread: Article: Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir


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    Banned Big-Leaguer
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    This is the lefty I would go for.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    2 years and $25 million? Clearly, I would do that, but I am just pointing out that these predictions that are so low are silly. Kazmir and Hughes will sign for similar money though thee years might be different.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Paul Pleiss's Avatar
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    I'd sign Kazmir for an annual average value of $10mil or less, maybe even look at adding a 3rd-year team option. The Twins need more guys in the rotation that can miss bats. Kevin Correia looks great in a rotation when he is a 4 or 5, but certainly leaves a lot to be desired when he's your #1.

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    Senior Member Double-A zchrz's Avatar
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    Hmm I was under the impression Kazmir was de railed more to injury than just losing it. I think he would be a good gamble on an overpay to get him here. Certainly could use a lefty and certainly could use a strikeout pitcher, even if he bombs 2 or 3 years isn't going to hurt things much.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    If the Twins get Arroyo then Kazmir is a perfect compliment to him as you go from soft tossing righty to strikeout lefty to Dedunno to soft tossing righty Corriea to ? I figure the Twins will either go for him or Maholm even though Maholm is also a soft tosser.

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    I think that Kazmir would be a poor fit for a lot of reasons, but my primary reason is that I don't think he will be able to match last year's performance next season. When considering Kazmir, keep in mind that he faced one of the easiest schedules in all of baseball last season, with 19 of his 29 starts against teams with below-average offenses: Twins (5), Royals (5), Astros (2), Mariners (2), Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Marlins, and Yankees. Almost all of these teams had below-average home run rates as well, yet Kazmir still gave up an above-average rate of homers. And if you take out the 5 starts against the Twins from last year, Kazmir's HR/9 rate increases by 11% to 1.20, which would make his HR/9 worse than Kevin Correia's.

    Another reason is that Kazmir has a fairly substantial platoon split, with RH batters' OPS of .794 last year. This is not a great fit for Target Field, which is much better at suppressing LH batters.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    The Twins should go after Kazmir very hard with a multi year offer. He is turning 30. His fastball is back to 2007 levels, which makes me think that the time off was crucial in healing and he is ok health-wise right now. Plus, the Twins do not have any top of the rotation lefty starter prospects above the Rookie leagues. They need a lefty in the rotation. And I'd rather not see Diamond pitch again...

    As far as this is concerned:
    His WHIP was a little high, at 1.32
    Totall BABIP-driven, since his BABIP was .326. Normalize his WHIP for league average BABIP and you got 1.19. Not bad. Opportunity to buy low
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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I don't have the link but mlbtraderumors.com has the Twins signing Kazmir on their top 50 projections. they were right about 40% of the time last year so this will be fun to watch play out.

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    Signing Kazmir has been one of my top wants even before the season ended. In fact, he was one of the pitchers available "on a flyer" I wanted the Twins to sign last off season and still surprised they didn't.

    With all due respect to talent and opinion, and while I'll be excited and hopeful about any additions the Twins make/sign to improve, I have difficulty laying out $12M plus for some of this years FAP options and some of their accompanying caveats.

    Kazmir at 2 and $8+, even up to $10M makes sense to me. I'd be willing for some sort of 3rd year option as well. Past trak record, age, re-discovery of self and being LHP all make this a smart sign.

    Now, Hughes at $8-10 or Johnson for similar plus some bonus gives us the best 1-2 punch we've had in some time without breaking the bank or tying up huge payroll for long terms. And there is still money left over for C help and hopefully a useful LHP hitting spare INF.

    Lastly, a million (maybe 2) and a little incentive bonus for Johan or Colby Lewis for this years possible surprise turn around would finish things off nicely.

    Kazmir is the start for me.

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    I'll bet Kazmir gets more than anyone is predicting. But it should be from the Twins. An overpay on a two year gamble will not hurt this team in the long run. Nor in the short run, really.

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    I would like both Kazmir & Hughes, both on 2-3 year deals. They should get between $8-10M each and I think the Twins should be willing to pay it. The questions are, will either be looking for a 4 year deal and should the Twins go that long on them, and will demand create a market where they can command contracts in the $10-12M range? Much tougher questions.

    I think I would be willing to go as high as $11-12M on Kazmir on a 2 year deal. (less on Hughes, even though I think he'd be a great fit for the Twins) It's probably too much risk to go that high on a 3 or 4 year deal, considering his history.

    I have to say, I'd feel a lot better about the Twins next season if their rotation was Kazmir, Gibson, Hughes, Correia, and Diamond/Deduno/Worley. Sure, there's no "ace" in that group (especially since "ace" seems to now be defined as "guy who is listed as someone who can win the Cy Young before the season starts") but it is a crew that could throw a lot of innings, miss more bats that previous years, and keep the team in games.

    I hope the Twins can sell themselves to Kazmir. Despite the bad last few years, there are a bunch of things to like about coming here: Target Field (both as an awesome ballpark and a good place to pitch), a stable franchise, a lot of young hitting talent in the pipeline, and Joe Mauer. Hopefully, this is where Gardy's rep as a player's manager helps sell a guy on coming here.

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    2 years for Kazmir.
    4 years for Hughes.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I having been hoping they sign Kazmir. There are many other pitchers not to take a chance on, he is worth it. Might go even a little over $10 million a year if only 2 years are guaranteed. Would like a third year club option, but might not be doable.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    The Twins should go after Kazmir very hard with a multi year offer. He is turning 30. His fastball is back to 2007 levels, which makes me think that the time off was crucial in healing and he is ok health-wise right now. Plus, the Twins do not have any top of the rotation lefty starter prospects above the Rookie leagues. They need a lefty in the rotation. And I'd rather not see Diamond pitch again...

    As far as this is concerned:


    Totall BABIP-driven, since his BABIP was .326. Normalize his WHIP for league average BABIP and you got 1.19. Not bad. Opportunity to buy low
    Since he is a southpaw I would give Kazmir a 2 year (up to 25mill) deal. I wouldn't give him a 3rd year (2016) since by then the cavalry should be arriving.

    Kazmir scares me with his WHIP which is high--yes it is driven by BABIP--but remember its the Twins defense we are talking about--until Hicks and Buxton get here--with the possible exception of Florimon--nobody is average or better on defense--our pitchers will be having high BABIP against them.

  16. #16
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Kazmir makes sense on many levels.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'll bet Kazmir gets more than anyone is predicting. But it should be from the Twins. An overpay on a two year gamble will not hurt this team in the long run. Nor in the short run, really.
    This is right on! Overpay by a million or two annually to insure that he comes to the Twins. If he can show that he now has learned how to pitch and stay healthy, its a steal. Worst case, the Twins took a risky gamble and he fails miserably. At least its a short term deal that will not handcuff the organization.

    And for those that want Hughes vs Kazmir, why? Everyone is entitled to their opinion, so I don't mean to sound rude. Just don't understand this train opf thought. Kazmir has at least proven it as a starter before. Hughes is also an elite prospect, but has never produced great numbers as a starter. He seems like a bigger gamble, unless its also a 1 or 2 year deal. I'm interested to hear why the Hughes-lovers prefer him to Kazmir.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    and for those that want Hughes vs Kazmir, why? Everyone is entitled to their opinion, so I don't mean to sound rude. Just don't understand this train opf thought. Kazmir has at least proven it as a starter before. Hughes is also an elite prospect, but has never produced great numbers as a starter. He seems like a bigger gamble, unless its also a 1 or 2 year deal. I'm interested to hear why the Hughes-lovers prefer him to Kazmir.
    I can't say I prefer Hughes over Kazmir necessarily but maybe a little insight. Hughes has been healthy at least over the past few years with around 30 starts in 3 of last 4 years. His ERA is close to a full run less away from Yankee Stadium. He's given up almost double the homers in Yankee Stadium than away in close to the same innings over his career. It's been stated before but his fly ball tendencies might play really nice in Target Field. Especially if we've got an outfield of Buxton/Hicks/Rosario/Arcia by the end of 2014.

    His ERA was also driven up last year due to a high BABIP. He might be a really nice buy low option for the Twins due to these factors.

    I say go get 'em both on 2-3 year deals. Both should be affordable enough and wouldn't hamstring the organization.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    The Lincecum deal is informative. I really, really doubt that Kazmir is going for less than $10 million a year.

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    I would be absolutely thrilled if the twins would sign this guy and Tanaka. That would make this offseason a huge success. ..in my opinion. If they dont sign Kazmir they are counting on Albers and Diamond. That wont cut it.

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