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Thread: Article: The Ripple Effect of Mauer's Move to First

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I hope Sano is really special and comes in mid-season and tears it up.

    He Might... He Might Not...

    What I want to see happen doesn't always match with the reality of what will happen.

    I'd rather not burn his MLB time watching him struggle... I don't want him learning while the Arb clock ticks... When Sano comes up... I want him to hit the ground running and provide a big boost ala Puig, Harper, Braun or Trout. If he's ready to do that out of Spring Training... Bring him on... If not... Let's wait.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJL44 View Post
    All Sano has to do is beat out Trevor Plouffe. That isn't impossible for a player already hitting well in AA.
    Humorous, yet true. All he has to do is hit at or above .230 and more than 12 HR.

    I don't think that'd be a problem.

    Look at Manny Machado. He only hit .266 at AA.

    His AVG/OBP/SLG line looks like this .266/.352/.438. 10.5% BB/PA and 15.3% SO/PA.

    Miguel Sano's AVG/OBP/SLG line: .236/.344/.571. 13.0% BB/PA and 29.3% SO/PA.

    Larry Walker's SO/PA at AA was 21.7%. He only hit .287. He went on to win 3 batting titles.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pleiss View Post
    How does the move effect Mauer's annual all-star status and his eventual HOF status? I think both take a serious hit with the move to first. I still see him as HOFer, but his all-star status, at least his chance to start regularly is definitely in jeopardy.
    Paul, I had the same questions. I expounded upon them a bit here.

    http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=4619

  4. #24
    I think the biggest ripple that comes from this is that Collabello and Parmalee have very little rope left, and are both most likely destined for bench roles or being in AAA. Arcia should start in right if we are trying to develop our young guys. Mauer should play EVERYDAY(162 games) at first base, or DH. That leaves no room for Parm or Collabello, which doesn't hurt my feelings. They are both frustrating to watch at the plate. I give Collabello a slight edge because at least he has hit a few home runs. So anyone talking about one of them being in a starting lineup to start the year....I cringe at that thought!!!

    Would also love to see Sano start the year with the Twins. There is no reason to wait. He crushes no matter what level he has been at. I think we could expect 25-30 HR's from both Sano and Arcia next year. And if we think logically, Sano is most likely every bit as solid at 3B as Plouffe is, if not better! And that's more of an indictment of Plouffe's defense than it is a compliment on Sano's. I will be annoyed if he isn't there starting the season.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by SweetOne69 View Post
    I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.
    Wonder how many of these who think that Sano & Buxton should be up ASAP, also think that Hicks was rushed last season and should have started at AAA...

    Another thing, because I hear it a lot: Danny Santana is a great player with a lot of speed and potential, but at this point his minor league numbers are slightly worse than Florimon's. I really am not that sure about him being better than Florimon in the majors at this point, unless he has a couple of break-through seasons. At this point the Twins' system is really lacking in SS.

    Speaking of break-through seasons, based on what he did in AAA last season and the way he started in Venezuela this season, I will not be surprised if Eduardo Escobar wins and keeps the SS job. He is 24 and another of those guys who was rushed to the majors...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ajstolt_09 View Post
    Collabello and Parmalee have very little rope left,.
    Those 2 do not belong in the same sentence: Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet. Also, unlike Colabello who was signed from the independent leagues, he was a first round pick. And the Twins do everything to try to make their first round picks successful. So he does have some rope left, especially since this is his last option year. There might have to be a decision next off-season, but there is a lot of baseball between now and then.

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Those 2 do not belong in the same sentence: Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet. Also, unlike Colabello who was signed from the independent leagues, he was a first round pick. And the Twins do everything to try to make their first round picks successful. So he does have some rope left, especially since this is his last option year. There might have to be a decision next off-season, but there is a lot of baseball between now and then.
    I agree... Parmelee should be given plenty of rope. The light bulb can always turn on for a player with potential and it doesn't always turn on right away.

    Colabello needs to stand closer to the plate and start turning on some balls. Colabello should be in Rochester again to figure that part out. His power could be a nice boost for a year or two... or five... if he can figure that out. Until then... I will remain weary.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Paul, I had the same questions. I expounded upon them a bit here.

    http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=4619
    My apologies Paul...you have your own podcast.

    http://talk2contact.podomatic.com/en...16_19_20-08_00

    So...yeaaaaaaah.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-12-2013 at 04:25 PM.

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pleiss View Post
    How does the move effect Mauer's annual all-star status and his eventual HOF status? I think both take a serious hit with the move to first. I still see him as HOFer, but his all-star status, at least his chance to start regularly is definitely in jeopardy.
    I actually think it's good and bad. As a catcher, he's not playing 10 more years. As a 1B, he probably is. Think of all the hits! Voters love counting stats.

    I also think that he declines more slowly, meaning that he could have some pretty impressive seasons even as an "old guy." Think Wade Boggs - he hit .300 when he was past forty years old.

    Of course, there will be a WAR difference without the boost from catcher, and there is the fact that bat-only type players that end up at 1B are going to be compared to Mauer from here on out.

    But even if Mauer isn't the clear-cut number one bat at 1B, I still think he accumulates enough WAR to make him a HOF shoo-in. Besides, I think everybody knows that he didn't want to move from catcher, and they won't penalize him for it. Call it the "Puckett effect." The circumstances are out of his control at this point.

    In any case, I think his body of work thus far leaves him maybe 2 or 3 more .850-.900 OPS seasons away from a no-doubter.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by SweetOne69 View Post
    I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.
    It might be a little unlikely, but I wouldn't throw it out and laugh. The Twins have had multiple prospects like Dozier and Hicks skip AAA and go to the bigs. Sano did very well in AA too and only needs a little more polish. Mike Trout was called up to the Angels the year after he completed High A on July 8th of the following season. Since he is about the closest comparison to Buxton, it's quite possible he's up before September 2014 too. I'd like to add that Mauer was also called up the season after his first taste of A+.

    However, it's more important that the Twins do what's best.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 11-12-2013 at 05:01 PM. Reason: A couple of sentences were rule violations

  11. #31
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    A ripple effect I don't see mentioned except in passing is DH. With Joe behind the plate the DH role had to be kept available for him at about a 20-25% rate (42 games in 2012, 29 in 2013). Perhaps the Twins will go out and find a really good hitter to hold down the DH role full time now; or maybe an in-house candidate will assert himself.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    A ripple effect I don't see mentioned except in passing is DH. With Joe behind the plate the DH role had to be kept available for him at about a 20-25% rate (42 games in 2012, 29 in 2013). Perhaps the Twins will go out and find a really good hitter to hold down the DH role full time now; or maybe an in-house candidate will assert himself.
    This is a great point, but it probably is a season or two away with Doumit and Willingham on the roster.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet.
    The prime for a big leaguer has been demonstrated to be in his 20s. Still, this is empirical and based on thousands of "typical" big league trajectories; one learns a lot as one progresses through the minors, and when the physical side starts to deteriorate there isn't much learning left that could compensate. In a case like Colabello, after 2 years there could still be some learning left to do when facing better pitching talent than he ran into in the indy leagues. I am far from being on the bandwagon for him, but it's less implausible than for most that his peak season might still be in his 30s.

  14. #34
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    RE: Sano

    While I know that Sano's injury doesn't seem to be too bad, just the fact of the (hopefully) near miss really shows that slotting in prospects as automatic at a position or making significant roster plans around them isn't always effective.

  15. #35
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    This is a great point, but it probably is a season or two away with Doumit and Willingham on the roster.
    Both these players are on many fans' "wish list" to trade away, and were even before now.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Both these players are on many fans' "wish list" to trade away, and were even before now.
    Yeah, mine as well, but I don't really see the Twins doing it this offseason. I could be wrong.

  17. #37
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    RE: Parmalee and Colabello -

    If you take "AGE" and "how they were acquired" and just look at how these two could help the Twins in 2014, I think the better option to make and help the team is Colabello. He put up ridiculous numbers at AAA. Both of these guys are blocked now by Mauer at 1B and with Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Walker, Hicks and Kepler having a much brighter future and being more talented OF options in the near future, Parmalee and Colabello may only may only be filling in in 2014.

    Instead of looking at age, consider MLB experience. How much time has Parmalee had to figure it out at the MLB level? Parts of 4 different seasons. One Sept call up he looks like, well, Josmil Pinto, but the rest like the Chris Parmalee we all can't stand. Colabello may not have youth on his side anymore, but he only has had 1 opportunity to show anything. He has proven that he can't do it. His second go around could be his breakout party! I woud love to see Colabello be a real DH. Not a DH where position players go to get a day off, but he has a bat everyday and maybe 6-8 times a year he plays some 1B, when Mauer needs a day off.

    Nothing against Parmalee, but I haven't seen any development. I'm willing to give Colabello another chance, but as the DH. His only plus skill is hitting.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    I hope Sano is really special and comes in mid-season and tears it up.

    He Might... He Might Not...

    What I want to see happen doesn't always match with the reality of what will happen.

    I'd rather not burn his MLB time watching him struggle... I don't want him learning while the Arb clock ticks... When Sano comes up... I want him to hit the ground running and provide a big boost ala Puig, Harper, Braun or Trout. If he's ready to do that out of Spring Training... Bring him on... If not... Let's wait.
    Agreed, no hicks 2.0

  19. #39
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    I actually think it's good and bad. As a catcher, he's not playing 10 more years. As a 1B, he probably is. Think of all the hits! Voters love counting stats.

    I also think that he declines more slowly, meaning that he could have some pretty impressive seasons even as an "old guy." Think Wade Boggs - he hit .300 when he was past forty years old.

    Of course, there will be a WAR difference without the boost from catcher, and there is the fact that bat-only type players that end up at 1B are going to be compared to Mauer from here on out.

    But even if Mauer isn't the clear-cut number one bat at 1B, I still think he accumulates enough WAR to make him a HOF shoo-in. Besides, I think everybody knows that he didn't want to move from catcher, and they won't penalize him for it. Call it the "Puckett effect." The circumstances are out of his control at this point.

    In any case, I think his body of work thus far leaves him maybe 2 or 3 more .850-.900 OPS seasons away from a no-doubter.
    One more batting title almost certainly gets him there--3 as a catcher plus another--and he may not even need that. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mauer win a batting title in the next 2-3 years.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    A ripple effect I don't see mentioned except in passing is DH. With Joe behind the plate the DH role had to be kept available for him at about a 20-25% rate (42 games in 2012, 29 in 2013). Perhaps the Twins will go out and find a really good hitter to hold down the DH role full time now; or maybe an in-house candidate will assert himself.
    Hammer!!??

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