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Thread: Mackey: How to Fix the Twins

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Mackey: How to Fix the Twins

    Phil Mackey posted his annual 3-part series on how to fix the Twins.

    Part 1 focuses on the Twins biggest (of many) needs.

    Part 2 looked at some possible free agent and trade targets.

    Part 3 considers what the Twins can and should do this winter.

    What do you think?

  2. #2
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

    Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.

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    I like it!

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    The twins need to sign Tanaka and Kazmir. That would help a lot. They also need to sign AJ. I would also check in to see if they could get Jurickson Profar without giving up one of the big three. i doubt it tho. That is pry a convo for next offseason anyway. I would also sign tanaka to as long a contract as I could, which would drive up hs trade value. Especially if he is as good as everyone says he is

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

    Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.
    Interesting, I had the same thoughts yet it I didn't realize how sad it was until I heard someone else say it.

    I agree with Mackey but I think he's going to be disappointed when he sees the prices for these guys. He's estimating about $10-12 million per year for the top guys. I think it's going to be closer to $15-17 million per. There's extra revenue out there, don't think the agents and players association isn't going to be putting the screws to the owners to share the wealth. They'll cry collusion if player salaries don't go up.

    Mackey's suggested retail prices would almost indicate a reduction in pay considering last year's equivilant pitchers, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson, Haren, Kuroda and Peavy all topped $12 million per season. Even Scott Boras' martyred Kyle Lohse* with is unfortunate QO tag ended up getting $11 million per once all was said and done.

    *Lohse sympathy performed with joyful sarcasm

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

    Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.
    Try hard for Bailey and if that fails I would still be happy with Hughes/Kazmir combo. Hughes on a 1 year deal, with incentives, and a possible second year option (like the Liriano deal). Kazmir on a 2 year deal. Both bring huge upside but not a ton of risk because of the length of the contracts.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    I found the money issue interesting as well. Not just in the projected salaries but in Mackey's comments about what the Twins' payroll may be ... especially this exchange in the comments:

    Jesse Haraldson
    · Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Phil, does this analysis includes the extra $25 million the Twins will get from MLB due to increased national MLB TV contracts?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-n...2014-payrolls/


    Phil Mackey
    · Top Commenter · Reusse and Mackey Show at Hubbard Broadcasting
    Every team gets that. For the Twins consider it a bandaid for the drop in attendance.



    So, now we are talking about merely pocketing the $20- $30m that went unspent this year that helped LEAD to the drop in attendance. PLUS we are saying that the extra $25m from TV (or $12.5m if you want to use 50%) also doesn't play a role.

    I'm getting a sick feeling in my stomach. (Not that I find any of this unexpected but it pretty much proves to me that until I see Terry Ryan spend the $$$, I'm not going to get my hopes up too high).




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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Try hard for Bailey and if that fails I would still be happy with Hughes/Kazmir combo. Hughes on a 1 year deal, with incentives, and a possible second year option (like the Liriano deal). Kazmir on a 2 year deal. Both bring huge upside but not a ton of risk because of the length of the contracts.
    I hope, personally, that if Hughes is signed it's a 2-3 year deal. We have the space and rotation availability to give him plenty of time to build some value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I hope, personally, that if Hughes is signed it's a 2-3 year deal. We have the space and rotation availability to give him plenty of time to build some value.
    Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.
    And if he is good? What would you need to pay him then? What is the risk of signing him for 3 years? Wasted money....money that is not likely to be spent on any long term deal for SP under your logic, I'd think. I could be mistaking your sentiment, but I read it as: don't spend multiple years on risky FA pitchers, which describes all but the most expensive FAs, which I don't think any of us think this team will ever sign.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Hughes is very mediocre. Maybe slightly better than Pelfrey, but guys like that just aren't going to make a difference.

    Either sign someone with upside for 1 year, with the possibility of flipping him at the deadline, or sign a legitimately good pitcher (preferably both). Both of those kind of moves can improve the club's chances in 2015 or 2016.

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    1st Tanaka is not signing here, even if they make the highest bid he has the option to choose between the 3 highest bids. It's either going to be a contender or someone on the west coast.

    Can we please get off Phil Hughes, even when he has been healthy he hasn't been good. He is a extreme fly ball pitcher & there are plenty of band boxes in the AL central. Also both Johnson & Hughes have said they want 1 year deals to establish their value.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 11-11-2013 at 05:29 PM.

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    The Twins' need for starting pitching will be for at least three years--it makes no sense to sign a guy for one-year so he can "re-build his reputation". Especially if said price is $10MM for one season.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Maybe if the Twins get one of the top three bids and then Terry Ryan shows up to a meeting speaking Japanese . . . .

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    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    That Mackey's piece on how to fix the Twins is now referred to as an annual article by Seth is a bit depressing.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon View Post
    That Mackey's piece on how to fix the Twins is now referred to as an annual article by Seth is a bit depressing.
    Like.

    (I hate it that the LIKE button has vanished)
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

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    I am getting tired of seeing the below, and fans buying into it:

    The Twins are wary of locking into bad contracts
    What team isn't wary of a bad contracts? Bad contracts are the risk of FA, just like missing on a draft pick is the risk of missing in scouting & development, or missing on trades like the Revere trade.

    The only difference is a miss draft pick/trade doesn't hurt the ownership's pockets like a bad a contract.

    This current team is not good, and they have a system that lacks pitching due to bad drafting/injuries/bad luck.

    So...unless you want to stink, you have to take the risk of bad contracts.
    If you don't, you are a bad team unless your prospects become good.
    Last edited by clutterheart; 11-11-2013 at 07:56 PM.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    And if he is good? What would you need to pay him then? What is the risk of signing him for 3 years? Wasted money....money that is not likely to be spent on any long term deal for SP under your logic, I'd think. I could be mistaking your sentiment, but I read it as: don't spend multiple years on risky FA pitchers, which describes all but the most expensive FAs, which I don't think any of us think this team will ever sign.
    If we offer him a one year deal several things could happen. If he is bad well he walks after the year and there is nothing to worry about. If he is good we can try to extend him. If he is good and doesn't want to be extended we can offer him a quified offer which gives us the best chance to sign him or get a draft pick as compensation. If he is good and the Twins aren't we could also try moving him at the deadline. As we saw with Willingham teams aren't jumping to trade for guys that have 2 1/2 years left. Win/win/win in my book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The Twins' need for starting pitching will be for at least three years--it makes no sense to sign a guy for one-year so he can "re-build his reputation". Especially if said price is $10MM for one season.
    The Twins need To sign players who will help this year OR could be assets at the trade deadline if the team sucks again.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.
    So let me get this right. Spend 10-15 million on him for 1 year and let him hit the lottery by being a fantastic pitcher next year and then try to resign him? If that happens you're guaranteed to be out of the sweepstakes of trying to resign him. A multi year deal gives you some chance of hope that you might catch lightning in a bottle.

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