11-05-2013, 06:01 PM #1
Article: Velocity to blame? That's not Twins rotation's biggest problem.
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...iggest-problem
11-05-2013, 06:13 PM #2
- Liked 277 Times in 144 Posts
Thanks, this was really interesting.
11-05-2013, 06:43 PM #3
- Liked 35 Times in 20 Posts
- Blog Entries
Is it possible that the Twins pitchers' "off-speed" pitches lack velocity? I know that sounds ridiculous but if a curve does not have bite, it can get smacked. Not sure that means velocity exactly but both Liriano and Burnett do throw their soft stuff hard, if I can say it like that. Besides Deduno, who else on the Twins has decent breaking stuff? Scherzer, Verlander, Wainwright, -- nothing wrong with getting some zip on the breaking stuff in MLB.
11-05-2013, 08:48 PM #4
- Liked 18 Times in 7 Posts
11-06-2013, 01:51 AM #5
- Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
- Blog Entries
Thanks! Great article.
11-06-2013, 04:03 AM #6
- Liked 8 Times in 7 Posts
Aaaaah... so the moral is; don't throw hanging curve balls.
11-06-2013, 04:57 AM #7
Also, throw hard, miss bats, to some extent.
11-06-2013, 07:30 AM #8
- Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Maybe that the Twins pitchers don't have good enough fastballs to get ahead of the count so they have to try and throw their off-speed stuff for strikes, which get wacked being to close to the hitting zone.
11-06-2013, 08:47 AM #9
As the Twins attempt to fix the rotation this winter, a key component of that could be identifying talent which has different approach than last year’s staff had. Namely, pitchers able to keep their “soft” pitches out of the middle of the zone. Those available include the likes of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir – both of whom attack the strike zone with their fastball and supplement it with below-the-zone breaking pitches. On the other hand, pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes tend to allow their “soft” offerings to hang up in the zone, leading to above-average well-hit averages in 2013.
Part of the reason the Twins' SPs are throwing soft stuff in the zone is that: a. they do not throw hard and b. Anderson's philosophy is to "throw strikes and let your defense do their job".
So, since Anderson is still around, I'd rather see pitchers who have fast fastballs and strike people out. This is part of the reason that I smirk when I see people suggesting that Thielbar or another soft tosser can replace Duensing in the 'pen...
Last edited by Thrylos; 11-06-2013 at 08:49 AM.
11-06-2013, 10:13 AM #10Maybe that the Twins pitchers don't have good enough fastballs to get ahead of the count so they have to try and throw their off-speed stuff for strikes, which get wacked being to close to the hitting zone.
That's one way to look at things. Another is to look for pitchers who a. throw hard and b. have high K/9.
PS, as statistically-oriented people, let's agree to stop referencing K/9, m'kay?
Stop using K/9 and BB/9! - Beyond the Box Score
11-06-2013, 10:40 AM #11
It should come as no surprise to those who watched any of the Twins pitchers last year and kept an eye on the radar gun readings that the speed numbers did not impress anyone. The Twins starters averaged 90 on their fastball. Just a tick below them was the Atlanta Braves’ staff that averaged 89.9 with the cheese. Yet, unlike the Twins, the Braves’ staff held a pristine .150 well-hit average – the fifth-best in the game last year. So the pitching woes cannot be entirely explained simply by lack of velocity – but it could possibly be explained by the lack of velocity in critical locations.
- Liked 380 Times in 212 Posts
- Blog Entries
If those are in fact a lot of fastballs, then I wonder if starters are being forced to throw them in those locations, because of what you wrote last spring about Mauer being a poor framer of the low strike (and a good framer of the high strike).
By contrast Brian McCann was tied for 4th in framers of the low strike.
Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/12
edit: In other words, might the Twins staff pitch higher in the zone overall (not just with off-speed pitches) because their catcher is squeezing them on the bottom of the zone?
Last edited by Willihammer; 11-06-2013 at 10:51 AM.
11-06-2013, 10:47 AM #12
Here are the numbers:
Mike Pelfrey 92.2
Kyle Gibson 92.1
Kevin Correia 90.4
Samuel Deduno 90.3
Liam Hendriks 90.0
Vance Worley 89.5
P.J. Walters 89.4
Scott Diamond 88.4
Pedro Hernandez 88.4
Andrew Albers 85.
And Pelfrey is one of these rare guys with high FB velocity but very low K/9 or K/PA and he really skews the situation...
part of the low K/rates is Rick Anderson's pitch to contact philosophy for sure. Some part is the personnel
11-06-2013, 11:02 AM #13
- Liked 337 Times in 214 Posts
How to fix the Twins, Part 1: The biggest problem among many problems | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins
In it he listed many of the things the Twins pitchers were last in. One catagory was curveball break. League average was 6.3 inches. Twins pitchers curveballs average a 2.9 inch break.
Why would a pitcher bother with that pitch? May I be so bold to suggest that a pitch that doesn't even break three inches should not even be considered a curvball?
11-06-2013, 11:27 AM #14In it he listed many of the things the Twins pitchers were last in. One catagory was curveball break. League average was 6.3 inches. Twins pitchers curveballs average a 2.9 inch break.
This is kind of misleading, because Pelfrey's and Gibson's FBs were high pushing the rest up...
Why is it misleading? Pelfrey, Correia and Deduno were three of the four starters who threw the most pitches...
11-06-2013, 11:29 AM #15
The problem is the philosophy became a way to drive personnel decisions.
11-06-2013, 12:39 PM #16
- Liked 73 Times in 54 Posts
- Blog Entries
Is the WHAV for all pitches or only fastballs?
11-06-2013, 12:43 PM #17Is the WHAV for all pitches or only fastballs?