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Thread: Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 6-10

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    You are a lot higher on Polanco then I am. Guess I want to see that for one more year. I'm not sure another team would be able to stash Polanco or Kepler on their rosters for an entire season. I wonder if TR will hold off on 40 man decisions for each of them for 1 more year. It definitely would help the org if they did.

    That said, anyone signed at 16 should be exempt from rule 5 for at least 5 years if not 6.
    I definitely can agree on that final sentence. There is definitely a difference between a 16 year old and an 18 year old.

  2. #22
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    Nice list Seth

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I think that Lewis Thorpe is way too high based on a total of 44 innings at the GCL if you consider his potential. He did have monster numbers, but if you compare them to Berrios' 2012 numbers in the GCL and Appy, they are not that monster. And I am referring to Berrios because he is ranked at around that spot.

    Were he hitting 95 and had a couple of above average offering to complement his FB, it would have been a different story.

    I know he is a lefty and there is a lot of hype right now, but...
    Last edited by Thrylos; 11-05-2013 at 01:12 PM.
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  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    AdamBrettWalkerKernelsHighlights
    youtube
    The first short clip is an advertisement for the Kernels (be patient) and then there are 29 short highlight clips (15 - 30 seconds each) of Adam Brett Walker at Cedar Rapids home games only. It played on my laptop, but didn't play on my ipad for some reason. I think this series of clips would give everyone a real idea of what Walker brings to the organization in terms of potential.
    The guy absolutely crushes the ball! Hes a good looking athlete from the right side of the plate, hopefully he cruises on up to the Twins by 2015

  5. #25
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    That said, anyone signed at 16 should be exempt from rule 5 for at least 5 years if not 6.
    I was going to write an article about this - and still might - but there is an important factoid that we need to remember when discussing whether or not Polanco and Kepler should be added.

    Since they both made their full-season debut this year, they will have used up their three options in their first five (full) seasons, allowing them a fourth option year. That essentially allows both players an "extra" year, though it's on the wrong side of the Rule 5 deadline. Both guys are no-brainer adds.

  6. #26
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    Sorry, Jeremy, I didn't quite understand what you were saying...

    Would these two players end up with 4 option years because of their debut year in full season ball?

  7. #27
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    Sorry, Jeremy, I didn't quite understand what you were saying...

    Would these two players end up with 4 option years because of their debut year in full season ball?
    Yes. If you have exhausted your option years before you start your fifth full season, you get a fourth year. Kepler and Polanco will only have four full seasons when their options run out after the 2016 season, so they could be optioned a fourth year in 2017.

  8. #28
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    A team may have a fourth option year on a player with less than five full seasons of professional experience, provided that both conditions are met below.
    A player has not spent at least 90 days on an active professional roster in a season. Minor leagues that play below Class A Advanced have seasons that are shorter than 90 days, and as such, any player who spends a full season in a rookie or Class A (short-season) league will receive a fourth option year.
    A player has not spent at least 60 days on an active professional roster AND then at least 30 days on a disabled list in a season. Only after 60 days have been spent on an active professional roster does time spent on the disabled list count towards the 90-day threshold. As with the prior example, this cannot occur with players who spend a full season in a rookie or Class A (short season) league.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    ... so you think that all Top-10 guys should fall in the Elite category? In my mind, not even all of MiLB's Top-100 are Elite prospects. Someone who exemplifies my thinking is Kyle Gibson, who was very deserving of his spot but not what I would ever call 'Elite'.
    No, and I qualified my post--but i will explain. Every "Top Ten List" has ten names--but that doesn't imply that all ten are, or must be, "elite". It's very likely that only a handful are actually "elite", but the list still has ten names. But if there aren't ten guys who actually are "elite" the bottom of the list needs to be weighted with those on the cusp of the majors to reflect their success over time and the likely promotion to the majors.

    There may be more than ten "elites" (if a team is really fortunate)--but only ten are on the "Top Ten List".

  10. #30
    It is tough to put Thorpe already in the Top 10 simply because he really hasn't proved much yet, he still has a lot of maturity and experience to gain, overall if I were to switch up a few things I would swap Adam Walker and Max Kepler, simply because of what we got to see number wise last year, Walker was the Midwest League player of the year and Kepler is still improving down in Cedar Rapids, but I like Berrios at no. 7, I think he eventually will be up in the Top 5 because he will be a number 2, maybe a number 3 starter when he touches his ceiling(or if he ever does, but im optimistic about him). Watching Berrios pitch in the WBC was FANTASTIC, he was only 19 at the time, throwing Fastballs past elite players such as Robinson Cano, he has no where to go but up! I really don't see Polanco at number 6 though, he had a solid year this year but when you look at players that I previously mentioned they have a bigger upside than Polanco does. Very excited to see what you have as the Top 5! You guys do great work.

  11. #31
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    A team may have a fourth option year on a player with less than five full seasons of professional experience, provided that both conditions are met below.
    A player has not spent at least 90 days on an active professional roster in a season. Minor leagues that play below Class A Advanced have seasons that are shorter than 90 days, and as such, any player who spends a full season in a rookie or Class A (short-season) league will receive a fourth option year.
    A player has not spent at least 60 days on an active professional roster AND then at least 30 days on a disabled list in a season. Only after 60 days have been spent on an active professional roster does time spent on the disabled list count towards the 90-day threshold. As with the prior example, this cannot occur with players who spend a full season in a rookie or Class A (short season) league.
    Huh, I had never heard that before. Yeah, If this is true, it pushes Kepler from a maybe 40 man add, to a sure add. That type of talent needs to be protected. Kepler ceiling is so high, one strong statistical year from him, and one age appropriate league year from Walker and our system may not take a big hit after promotions from Sano and Buxton.

  12. #32
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I was going to write an article about this - and still might - but there is an important factoid that we need to remember when discussing whether or not Polanco and Kepler should be added.

    Since they both made their full-season debut this year, they will have used up their three options in their first five (full) seasons, allowing them a fourth option year. That essentially allows both players an "extra" year, though it's on the wrong side of the Rule 5 deadline. Both guys are no-brainer adds.
    So there's a 4th option year for people in this scenario? Was that part of the new CBA?

  13. #33
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    So there's a 4th option year for people in this scenario? Was that part of the new CBA?
    Nope. It's been in play for as long as I can remember.

    Jose Mijares was added to the 40-man after the 2005 season (his first full-season). He spent a couple seasons in the VSL. His was optioned in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Because he entered 2009 with less than five full seasons, he could be optioned again - and was - in 2009, his fourth optional assignment year.

    Felix Jorge, who only threw 60 innings last year, should be left in EST until short-season starts. He should then be moved up to Cedar Rapids. That would make 2015 his first "full" season. He needs to be added to the 40-man after the 2015 season, so he would be in the same boat: eligible for a fourth optional year.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thesouthpaw22 View Post
    It is tough to put Thorpe already in the Top 10 simply because he really hasn't proved much yet, he still has a lot of maturity and experience to gain, overall if I were to switch up a few things I would swap Adam Walker and Max Kepler, simply because of what we got to see number wise last year, Walker was the Midwest League player of the year and Kepler is still improving down in Cedar Rapids, but I like Berrios at no. 7, I think he eventually will be up in the Top 5 because he will be a number 2, maybe a number 3 starter when he touches his ceiling(or if he ever does, but im optimistic about him). Watching Berrios pitch in the WBC was FANTASTIC, he was only 19 at the time, throwing Fastballs past elite players such as Robinson Cano, he has no where to go but up! I really don't see Polanco at number 6 though, he had a solid year this year but when you look at players that I previously mentioned they have a bigger upside than Polanco does. Very excited to see what you have as the Top 5! You guys do great work.
    A 17 year old lefty who can peak out at 95 is definitely a top 10 system talent. There are so few of them. Here is Ben Badler's (BaseballAmerica) take on if Thorpe will be a future big league starter:

    "Definitely a starter. If had been born in the United States, he'd be a first-round pick. Actually, he'd be just starting his senior year of high school, so he wouldn't even be eligible until the 2014 draft, but I already like him better than some of the arms who went at the end of the first round this year."

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Yes. If you have exhausted your option years before you start your fifth full season, you get a fourth year. Kepler and Polanco will only have four full seasons when their options run out after the 2016 season, so they could be optioned a fourth year in 2017.
    Jeremy, where were you in our extended 40-man/Rule 5 Kepler debates?

    The extra option year pretty much settles that.

  16. #36
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Jeremy, where were you in our extended 40-man/Rule 5 Kepler debates?

    The extra option year pretty much settles that.
    Around, but who am I to ruin all that fun.

    Vargas may be in the same boat as well. His suspension clouds things, but, technically, this season was his first full season. There may be something in the fine print that says otherwise, though. .

  17. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Around, but who am I to ruin all that fun.

    Vargas may be in the same boat as well. His suspension clouds things, but, technically, this season was his first full season. There may be something in the fine print that says otherwise, though. .
    If he was suspended under short season rules (IE couldn't start serving he's suspicion until the short season started) then the option status should count the same way...

  18. #38
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I don't know if that's a good thing or not. I think it speaks volumes to the types of players that the Twins are signing that in a strong system, young players they've signed in recent years are very exciting. Of course, youth means longer trek to the big leagues and more opportunity for falling back. But, I like all four of these guys, for sure!
    I get what your saying Seth. I should have given my reason why I like it...I love when a prospect reaches the majors at a fairly young age so we can root for them for a LONG time so being this high on the prospect chart and young gives us better odds of seeing them in a Twins Uniform for 15+ years. Even being able to root for them before they get here and knowing the names for a long time. That is why I like their youth.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Sometimes my posts are more emotional than logical.

  20. #40
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Nothing wrong with emotion... of course, if a guy comes up at 25, he can still be with the organization for 12+ years.

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