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Thread: Adrian Beltre – Hall of Famer?

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    I think Beltre has the potential to become the next generation's Tim Raines. Very deserving, not a slam dunk, but tons of support from the stat-friendly community. Personally, I think he's one of the best defensive players I've ever seen, so if he can keep up his recent offensive production for a couple more seasons, I'd vote for him.
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  2. #22
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Fangraphs has him at 65 WAR. Still enough to get consideration, particularly because he's still going so strong, having accumulated 25 WAR in his past four seasons.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...39&position=3B

    If he does this for another few years, I don't see how he doesn't get him. He has been sneaky-good for a long time.

  3. #23
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    Great question...or a question I've thought a lot about.

    If his career ended today. No. He'd end up in the Bobby Abreu, Tim Raines, Vlad Guerrero, etc etc category.

    Not winning a WS (0 for 2) hasn't helped him, though maybe not hurt him at much as it would an NFL player.

    I was surprised to see he only has 4 GGs. He's a guy who I think needs the 3,000 hits to get in. He's 35. He should finish around 2,600 by year end.

    So 400 hits shouldn't be too hard to get if he stays healthy. So maybe if no injuries by May/June of his age 38 season (2017) he cracks 3000.

    Either way, I hope he makes it.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Double-A
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    Not being tied to steroids helps his case. I think he'll get to 3000 and make it moot, but a ring would probably seal it regardless. Probably not first ballot though without a World Series, but at least within three years.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    If his career ended today. No. He'd end up in the Bobby Abreu, Tim Raines, Vlad Guerrero, etc etc category.
    Actually, I think Vlad gets in. Not 1st ballot but likely in his first five years. Abreu and Raines were good players for a long time. Guerrero was an elite player for a decade and a good player for his entire career.

    I agree with Beltre though. He is only 35. He plays strong defense and has very good on base skills, two things what will keep him employed even if other indicators point to a decline. He's not a lock for 3,000 hits, but I'd say the odds are strongly in his favor to get there. That would put him the the HOF.

  6. #26
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    I think he'll need longevity stats to get in. 3000 hits is becoming clichι as we are close to 30 players with 3000 hits so I say 3100 hits and 1600 RBIs and over 1000 XBHs will be needed. I think he can get there.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    I think he has a better chance than Mauer does. Please don't yell at me!
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  8. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    I think he'll need longevity stats to get in. 3000 hits is becoming clichι as we are close to 30 players with 3000 hits so I say 3100 hits and 1600 RBIs and over 1000 XBHs will be needed. I think he can get there.
    I don't think they're cliche at all. As more players play the game, more will reach the 3,000 mark. That doesn't dilute the mark, that just means more people have played baseball.

  9. #29
    Here's a list of the Top 10 Third Baseman by WAR (from baseball reference)

    1 Mike Schmidt HOF 106.5
    2 Eddie Mathews HOF 96.4
    3 Wade Boggs HOF 91.1
    4 George Brett HOF 88.4
    5 Chipper Jones 85.0
    6 Ron Santo HOF 70.4
    7 Brooks Robinson HOF 78.3
    8 Paul Molitor HOF 75.4
    9 Adrian Beltre 71.9
    10 Scott Rolen 70.0

    And for some reason bbref had Beltre #8 ahead of Molitor, not sure why. Maybe they took Molly down a notch for not really playing third base for a long time?

    I'm a little surprised that Scott Rolen ranks so high...

    Unlike the NBA, I can't discount a players credentials for lack of WS rings, a player is just 1/25th of a team. A single player can't be responsible for winning the WS.

  10. #30
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cgreuling View Post
    A single player can't be responsible for winning the WS.
    If they were, Barry Bonds would have more rings than fingers.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    If Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell and (to a lesser degree) Mike Piazza are not Hall of Famers, so is not Beltre. Never know how the writers going to vote.

    For me he is borderline (like Scott Rolen.)
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  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  13. #33
    I believe Beltre should be a first ballot HOFer. Yet, I'm not convinced he will be. He was rocky at best to begin his career, especially in Seattle. He most definately will be a second ballot though.

  14. #34
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    I think he has a better chance than Mauer does. Please don't yell at me!
    Can I agree with you? Beltre has put together five out of his six best seasons since he turned 30. I'm starting to have a tough time seeing Mauer doing the same.

  15. #35
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    I knew we had this discussion not long ago, and sure enough, we did. Threads merged.



    And my opinion hasn't changed, he's still HoF-worthy right now.
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  16. #36
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.
    Knoblauch was on a borderline HOF path himself through age 28. Nearly 40 WAR, excellent defender, excellent baserunner, underrated hitter. Then it all fell apart.

    I was firmly in the Mauer is a HOF player camp going into last season, but I also thought he'd stay at catcher for at least a few more seasons. Now, I'm not sure he will make the Hall.
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  17. #37
    Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

    He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

    Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.
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  18. #38
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    The other thing to consider is that the HOF has a very small # of third basemen. The voters have been very picky with the position, and guys that have been voted in recently have had the big counting stats (3000 hits like Boggs, Molitor, Brett).
    Chipper Jones should be a lock, but I would not be shocked if even he was not a 1st ballot guy.
    Beltre has been great for a long time (I really REALLY wanted the Twins to sign him the last time he was Free Agent) and if he can keep it up until he turns 40, I think he'll be sitting closer to the top 5 WAR at his position. That should make it an easier vote for most.

  19. #39
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deduno Abides View Post
    Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

    He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

    Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.
    And that's maybe why he'll sit on the ballot a long time. Offensively he was up and down between below average and elite. He only has 4 GGs, 3 all star appearances, and zero MVPs. His career OPS+ is just 114. But he's always b een an amazing defender. As metrics improve and/or people start weighting them more heavily, I think his defensive value will push his case over the top.

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