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Thread: Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Josh Johnson

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    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Josh Johnson


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    I would take a flyer (like Pelfrey) on him. One year 8 or 9 million. Max 2 year 15 million. Maybe he could be a stop gap till the young guys (Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves) are ready.

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    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Certainly worth the effort to sign him. He has big upside and the only downside is money which will go in Pohlads pocket if not spent. If he has a big year either trade him at the deadline or a QO next winter.
    True or not I read his brother lives in the cities.

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    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    I'd like to see the Twins offer a Pelfrey-ish contract. Obviously more money, but incentives that could earn him up to $12, 13, 14m. If he's right - and reaches those incentives - you turn around and make him a QO.

    (Wow. I typed out my comment and noticed I hadn't submitted it... lots of similar thinkers late in the morning.)

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    I would be all for us giving a Pelfrey contract to Josh Johnson, Johan Santana and Tim Hudson. All risky but mine as well

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    I'd give him a Correia contract.

    (Pelfrey was already taken)

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    Senior Member All-Star
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    Basically, any one-year deal would be fine for Johnson, and probably Hughes too. That's all they will be looking for this offseason, and with that short of a term, the dollars really don't matter.

    Still would be nice to get a longer-term guy for the rotation too -- maybe Johnson or Hughes if they have success could be extended reasonably, or we could splurge on an Ervin Santana type.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Don't Feed the Greed Guy's Avatar
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    Johnson for one year, and Hughes for three. Pay what the market will bear, Pohlads.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    It will take more than a Pelfrey contract. He is not returning from a Tommy John surgery.

    Hate to say it (because the price will be high), but his play in 2013 was not reflected by his 2-8 record and 6.20 ERA, but by his 3.58 xFIP. Add his more than 1 K/IP to his 93 mph average fastball, to his under 30 age and you got a guy who you (or someone) will want to sign for a 3-4 year contract.

    And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Can you make a Qualifying Offer if you only give a 1 year contract? IIRC, you didn't get compensation under the old rules unless the player was on a multi-year deal.

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    Senior Member Double-A zenser's Avatar
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    I am not very high on Johnson due to his injury history. I would be happy that the Twins signed him if they also sign one or two other pitchers. If he is the only signing, I would be pretty disappointed.

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    My concern is that Terry Ryan will wait till the market establishes itself and he will cringe and pull back on aggressively pursuing anyone in free agency other then the scrap bin variety. I hope he jumps out of the gate after a Johnson, either Santana, Vargas or Hughes. Hughes I would be willing to go multiple years. He seems like a good fit for Target Field.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Niedermann View Post
    I hope he jumps out of the gate after a Johnson, either Santana, Vargas or Hughes..
    Vargas does not belong in this list. He would be a tremendous mistake. Nick Blackburn 2.0. But he is a groundball pitcher with a 87 mph FB who pitches to contact, which is what the Twins' like.
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    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...
    Ah... no. Lincecum has made 32+ starts for six straight years and pitched ~200 innings this season. Johnson has made 32+ starts once in his career and is coming off a season that was shortened by arm problems and ended in elbow surgery.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Ah... no. Lincecum has made 32+ starts for six straight years and pitched ~200 innings this season. Johnson has made 32+ starts once in his career and is coming off a season that was shortened by arm problems and ended in elbow surgery.
    Looks like his camp will be asking close to Lincecum numbers... I am pretty confident that he will get it.

    Interesting comments from Radcliff in that link, which make me think that these guys (Twins FO scouts) do not know the difference between "horrible" and "good" and they go by W-L and ERA. Unless they think that every single Twins SP was "horrible", since Johnson's 3.58 xFIP dwarfs all of the Twins' SP numbers, and his k/9 is almost double to the best Twins' SP.
    Last edited by Thrylos; 11-01-2013 at 08:47 PM.
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    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    I highly doubt Johnson gets 7M. That's 1.5M more than Correia with cash flush in the league.

    I'm guessing it's more akin to what Dan Haren got from Washington.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Really interesting tidbit from Radcliff about Johnson

    Twins VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff threw some cold water on the possibility of a move on Johnson, Berardino further reports. Radcliff said that Johnson is coming off of a "horrible" year and "if he wants $10 million, we're not going to be involved with that

    To which I would agree whole heartedly!

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    Senior Member Double-A
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    Here's the problem: Ryan will wait to see what the market bares and hope against hope that he will get a deal once the dust settles. Problem is, like last year, other teams will establish the market by signing the decent SP, leaving the Twinks with rejects, the scrap-pile and has beens. To get these guys, the Twins can't sit back and react. They have to be aggressive and spend right out of the gate.

  19. #19
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Johnson would be worthwhile even on a 1 year contract. If you gamble and lose it happens and if you win, you can flip him at the deadline for some very good prospects. He then would not bog down payroll in the succeeding years.

  20. #20
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    Johnson isn't going to get anything close to 10M (unless it's purely incentives). After a disappointing season and forearm pain, he's a Tommy John candidate waiting to happen. I'm guessing he gets less than Pelfrey. I'm fine going after him on a 1 year deal, but I'm guessing he's not getting more than 3 to 4M, and even that makes me cringe as I suspect he's on the 60 day DL by May.

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