11-01-2013, 08:50 AM #1
Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 16-20
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...rospects-16-20
11-01-2013, 09:59 AM #2
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It sounds like we have some pretty talented pitchers in the lower levels. Where do Eades and Rogers start next year, and how quickly could they move up?
11-01-2013, 10:33 AM #3
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Interesting to see Fernando Romero in the top 20. I suppose the development of his secondary pitches will determine if he ends up being a starter or a reliever.
11-01-2013, 10:38 AM #4
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Surprised to see Eades this high. You pointed out his disastrous numbers this year. 2014 is a key year for him--presumably at Cedar Rapids. For me, he must show something or I will consider him a bust. On the other hand, another chip for Gonsalves to have on his shoulder considering the Twins picked Eades ahead of him...
11-01-2013, 10:52 AM #5
I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.
Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:
Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
What say you Seth?
11-01-2013, 10:54 AM #6
Plus we have Kuo Hu Lo and Fernando Romero...not a bad problem to have I guess
11-01-2013, 12:08 PM #7
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Romero over Jorge Felix seems like a stretch.
Rogers over Baxendale doesn't make sense. Baxendale was pushed faster and he totally dominated A+ where Rogers finished.
Baxendale was drafted in 2012 where Rogers was drafted in 2011 (both from college).
Obviously the Twins see more potential with Baxendale since they pushed him ahead of the 2011 draft class.
Yes - he struggled in AA but Hicks struggled in the Majors because he wasn't ready for that level.
11-01-2013, 12:46 PM #8
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Seth, I've got a general question about your rankings, driven by Rogers being in the top 20....
How much weight do you give to strikeout rates?
Rogers is 22 years old and posted 83K in 123 IP in HIgh A, in a pitcher's league. To me, that seems like a guy who almost no chance of having any meaningful career in MLB, not even as a reliever.
Now, maybe at this number, none of these guys have much hope of a MLB career, but I would think Goodrum would, and relievers that are lower on this list might too. So is there something you know about Roger that we don't - like he's an extreme groundball guy or something - or do you discount strikeout rate, which I notice you often don't include if it's not impressive.
11-01-2013, 01:02 PM #9
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Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats.
I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...
11-01-2013, 01:19 PM #10
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Did they keep Vargas at Ft Myers so he could work with the trainers? I have heard the training facilities are the best there.
11-01-2013, 01:27 PM #11
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
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11-01-2013, 03:02 PM #12
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11-01-2013, 03:08 PM #14
11-01-2013, 03:09 PM #15
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11-01-2013, 03:13 PM #16
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Eades is one of the most interesting Twins prospects to me. His "massive" 15.2 innings after an insanely long college season mean zero to me. If can add some more strength with professional trainers and figure out if he wants to throw a slider or a curve, instead of a slurve, he could be a steal. He was a top 20 draft prospect for most the year and ended in the top 35 of a lot of lists.
11-01-2013, 03:14 PM #17
1.) remember that, especially in the lower levels, innings counts matter, so we'll likely see many of these guys get the opportunity to start throughout the year. Cedar Rapids went with a 6-man rotation this year, and even then, many of their starters got a couple of weeks in the bullpen too.
2.) Rochester - Stuifbergen is a free agent at this point. I know he's still talking with the Twins, but after having Tommy John mid-summer, he may not be back anyway until mid-season.
3.) Just because of innings, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Alex Meyer get 3-4 starts in New Britain before moving up.
4.) That New Britain rotation sounds about right.
5.) Boyd may get another shot in the rotation, but ultimately, he could be a bullpen guy. (same with Melotakis, though I think he did enough to keep starting)
6.) I could see the Twins keeping a couple of those Cedar Rapids guys in EST due to weather concerns, but also just to keep them starting and stretched out so when there is a need, they can be called up.
7.) Guys like Shibuya and Atherton could pitch out of the bullpen. Sulburan pitched the full season at Low-A, he could/should move up to Ft. Myers' rotation too.
8.) Remember too that they will sign a few minor league contracts at those upper levels as well, as they should.
Last edited by Seth Stohs; 11-01-2013 at 03:18 PM. Reason: Added a couple more thoughts
11-01-2013, 03:21 PM #18
11-01-2013, 03:28 PM #19
At the end of the day, he might become Scott Diamond (pick which Scott Diamond you wish, the really good 2012 version or the not-so-good 2013 version), and he could be either one of those... or he may not advance beyond AA.
I do think K/9 is important, but it can't be the be all, end all for back-of-the-rotation ceiling guys.
11-01-2013, 03:35 PM #20
I don't want to speak for the Twins, but I could venture a couple of guesses:
1.) It was his first full season. Remember last year, he missed a bunch of games at the beginning of the season due to his 50 game suspension. He tired.
2.) The Miracle lineup was different after Sano and Rosario moved. He didn't have the same protection in the lineup. They maybe wanted to see how he would respond when he was suddenly pitched a little differently.
3.) He is an absolute butcher at 1B. Why not let him spend more time with Doug Mientkeiwicz and see if he can get any better? What harm could that do?
I'm not saying that these are the reasons, but in my mind, they are very fair reasons. Also, Reynaldo Rodriguez had a solid year, and as Jack G mentioned in another thread response to you, sometimes those veteran types purpose is so that they don't hurt a prospect by moving him too quickly.