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Thread: Decided to play GM this afternoon.

  1. #21
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013.
    I think this is pretty harsh. Santana has been good 3 of the last 4 years, and his down year in 2012 was the result of a ridiculous, unrepeatable home run spike. He's probably the best bet on the FA market this year outside of Tanaka.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Career ERA+ for E. Santana is 100! Haha. Actually that is what you might get over the duration of a four or five-year deal. The thing is that two or three of those years might be 115+.

  3. #23
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    Santana had another career year in 2008. Of course he turned that into his current lucrative extension than promptly followed it up with an awful 2009.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Would you guys sign him for 5 years if you knew three of them were going to be quite good and 2 were clunkers (hoping that 2014 was one of those clunkers)?

  5. #25
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Would you guys sign him for 5 years if you knew three of them were going to be quite good and 2 were clunkers (hoping that 2014 was one of those clunkers)?
    You can't know that though. That's the uncertain nature of free agency. I think he's more likely to be an above-average pitcher over the next five years than anyone in the Twins' system (though that's true of many free agents).

  6. #26
    2017

    SP - H. Bailey (31) (2y. 40 mil)
    SP - E. Santana (34) (1y. 18.75 mil)
    SP - A. Meyer (28) (ARB1 4.5 mil)
    SP - K. Gibson (28) (ARB1 3.8 mil)
    SP - J.Berrios (23)/L. Thorpe (22)/K. Stewart (23) (1.0 mil)/(.750 mil)/(.500 mil)

    2018

    SP - H. Bailey (32) (1y. 20 mil)
    SP - A. Meyer (29) (ARB2 7.5 mil)
    SP - K. Stewart (24) (.750 mil)
    SP - J. Berrios (24) (1.75 mil)
    SP - L. Thorpe (23) (1.5 mil)

    I found this well-thought-out and entertaining. My hope is that in the out-years we will being to see upside from the 19-year-old latino players that are showing up on Seth's radar - Landa, Romero, Rosario, Jorge. They throw hard and one or two of them will be serviceable starters.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Personally, I wouldn't touch Santana with a ten foot pole. He's the type of signing a team inevitably regrets in 12-24 months.

    You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013.
    Santana's 2008 was better than his 2013, so its probably not technically a career year. Also, Santana has had ~3 other seasons with innings and rate stats similar to 2013/2008, even if he didn't quite hit those ERA+ numbers.

    Phil Hughes is younger, but has hardly even approached any Santana's top 5 seasons in terms of innings or effectiveness. And I still think Hughes is unlikely to sign anything more than a one year deal, so best case, you might get a one-year upgrade and then have to make a Santana-type offer to retain him anyway.

    I credit this poster for giving a realistic estimate of Santana's potential contract (although I think he could get a fifth year, but the AAV looks about right). It's clear the we can afford him, and we have a gaping need at the position.

  8. #28
    Those Santana numbers were taken from mlbtraderumors.com

    Remember, this "projection" did not take into account any trades. Just FA signings and in-house call-ups. I also didn't really explain my thinking beyond 2015. I think these are the type of deals that should be made for FA's. We'd all be lying if we said that we wouldn't make Minnesota pay a little more for our service if we were a FA. This team has stunk the last couple years and honestly 2014 doesn't look much better. 2015 might be a wash as well if these prospects don't pan out half of what we expect.

    Santana is a proven commodity; something the Twins do not have. If you have to pay a little more, in a year when you can afford too, then I think you have to get it done.

    The Cabrera signing is the one that I look back at and tell myself, "that's stupid." But then when I think about it, the more I think signing a SS is the way to go. The Twins lack this more than SP, in my opinion. They have some solid 2b guys, but no one who profiles as a SS. Cabrera would only be 29 at the signing. While his bat has taken a step back, his defense is still pretty solid and is still a top SS in the AL. I personally hope the figures I gave are off as I have zero experience signing players or negotiating for players. Cabrera does give the Twins the security of having a solid SS something they have not had since Hardy and Guzman before that.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Phil Hughes is younger, but has hardly even approached any Santana's top 5 seasons in terms of innings or effectiveness. And I still think Hughes is unlikely to sign anything more than a one year deal, so best case, you might get a one-year upgrade and then have to make a Santana-type offer to retain him anyway.

    I credit this poster for giving a realistic estimate of Santana's potential contract (although I think he could get a fifth year, but the AAV looks about right). It's clear the we can afford him, and we have a gaping need at the position.
    I signed both these guys FWIW

  10. #30
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    tcarlic, I like your plan (at least for this offseason). No reason we can't "overpay" a little to try to get some long-term help in the rotation, as well as take advantage of potential short-term bargains. That's one of the "positives" about having a severe shortage of quality players... plenty of spots to put new guys!

  11. #31
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    One thing I'd add: I'm not recommending going all-in on Ervin Santana or anything, just that he's the kind of guy the Twins should be making competitive offers for. Same for Anibal Sanchez last year, and maybe Homer Bailey next year.

    Don't know about Asdrubal Cabrera, we need position players too but he seems like he may have peaked... at least we will have more time to see him before he hits FA.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    What I gather from this is, we can over spend and still not end up at where our payroll should be. This has always been my stance. if I was to be the GM and found out that I needed to overspend to land some top talent then I would. You should set a cap for the team not each player. If you over spend on a guy to get what you want, who cares?! You got what you wanted without raising your cap! Plan out 100,000,000 for the team and spend what it takes to get players like Tanaka here. Don't go cheap or scrape the bottom line and hope they choose you. Pay the extra million or 2 more than the other team or give the extra year on the deal to make it happen. That way, you don't end up at spring training explaining to fans that players like other organizations better or they went for more than you thought they were worth.

    Sorry for the rant, but my goodness, it's frustrating.

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