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Thread: AFL notes

  1. #21
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Are you being serious here? I mention Wittgren and say "the Twins drafted L.J. Mazzilli instead . . . "

    That is "bashing" the Twins?

    What is going on around here?
    Wittgren went in the ninth round. Why bring up LJ Mazzilli at all? The Twins drafted ten guys before Wittgren went to the Marlins.

    Whether you intended it or not, how people read your posts are going to dictate their reactions to your post. My comment was not meant as any disciplinary action nor was it saying that you violated any sort of comment policy; the point of my comment was "if you don't like how a half dozen people responded to your thread, you may want to consider that it might have something to do with how you phrased your statement in the first place". After all, the comment elicited virtually the same response from multiple people. At that point, it probably ain't them, it's probably your post.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Thank you Snepp.

    Overall AFL impressions, which Twins Prospect(s) if any are really shining, who is really disappointing? (Besides all the minor injury concerns)

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    It is not clear why I would go and start an AFL thread, mention how the guys are playing and then be said to be "lashing out" and "bashing" the Twins. I apologize for mentioning the guy who the Twins picked several selections before Wittgren.

    Anyway, goulik, Meyer and Achter are doing very well. Zach Jones and Trevor May are having some troubles, and all of the hitters are a little in over their heads (no one with a .700 OPS or better right now).

  4. #24
    Senior Member Triple-A Paul Pleiss's Avatar
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    Meyer seems to be doing well down in the AFL, May, not so much. With the small sample size of the AFL, even after a full season, what are you most looking for in the stat lines? For me, it's what the youngsters are doing. Guys like Buxton and Kepler, they're clearly in advanced territory here, so to see them do well is exciting for me. What about you gus?

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I haven't paid as much attention the past few games, but if, as Shane points out, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler are all at or below .700 OPS, it's hard to say they're really doing well. Buxton and Kepler are both playing above their Class A levels, so just being able to keep from being overmatched is encouraging for them. I hoped for a bit more from Rosario.

    Do I recall correctly that the AFL is traditionally known as a hitters' league, with the hitters assigned generally being higher level prospects than the pitchers? If so, then I might have hoped to see the hitters put up a little better numbers. Achter and Meyer, though, are very encouraging.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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  6. #26
    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    ...I might have hoped to see the hitters put up a little better numbers. Achter and Meyer, though, are very encouraging.
    Yeah--I'm mostly just encouraged to see Meyer doing so well. We had full, impressive minor league seasons from Buxton and Rosario, so I'm not terribly worried about their AFL performances. It'd be nice to see Kepler do something, but as previously pointed out, he'd be expected to be over his head in the AFL.

    My biggest question I was hoping the AFL could answer is how Meyer is looking, and if he's bouncing back from his shoulder injury. The positive results we're seeing there are far more encouraging to me than the subpar performancese of the hitters are disheartening.

  7. #27
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    Meyer is number 1 on my AFL interest. Long term, not worried about Rosario or Buxton. The others, if they do great, it's a bonus to me. Well, it would be nice if May showed growth.....
    Lighten up Francis....

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    No argument there, but the Marlins and Rays seem to wind up with excellent prospects without going through the string of bad luck years like most other MLB teams.

    They are doing something better than the other teams. Year after year is not a coincidence. They are seeing something different. Teams should be trying to figure out what it is that they are doing different.
    They really aren't. Neither team has a great farm system right now - I believe both are middle of the road. From 2008 on, the Rays have had 2 players drafted make the majors, they combined for 57 games and 0.1 WAR. They did have some better drafts before then, although they constantly picked in the top 10, they didn't get great results either - Townsend, Young, Brazelton, Niemann and Hamilton were all first round picks that didn't do much, although Hamilton got pretty good after leaving and they made a good trade in Young. Niemann and Baldelli got hurt. Bad luck there. This years Rays' team only had 8 players play a game for them that were drafted by the org. (They made some smart trades).

    Marlins made some better recent picks - Fernandez and Yelich in the first rounds, Stanton in the 2nd but they've had a lot of bad drafts - usually picking in that ugly 11-20 area. From 02-12 drafts (ie, not the Mauer draft), the players drafted by the Marlins have accumulated 75.7 WAR, players drafted by the Twins have accumulated 101.5 WAR. (Interesting comparison, the Rays in the same time amassed 174 WAR but the 06 and 07 drafts are nearly the entire difference - 76.8 WAR from those two drafts, which netted Longoria, Jennings, Cobb, Moore and Price).
    Last edited by gunnarthor; 10-28-2013 at 11:46 AM.

  9. #29
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    They really aren't. Neither team has a great farm system right now - I believe both are middle of the road. From 2008 on, the Rays have had 2 players drafted make the majors, they combined for 57 games and 0.1 WAR. They did have some better drafts before then, although they constantly picked in the top 10, they didn't get great results either - Townsend, Young, Brazelton, Niemann and Hamilton were all first round picks that didn't do much, although Hamilton got pretty good after leaving and they made a good trade in Young. Niemann and Baldelli got hurt. Bad luck there. This years Rays' team only had 8 players play a game for them that were drafted by the org. (They made some smart trades).
    I've been harping on this for a long time. I think the Rays are an extremely well-run franchise but before we crown them Kings of All Things Baseball, they need to draft lower in the pecking order and continue to succeed.

    The Twins turned into a good team in the early 2000s and continued to draft well for 3-4 years after that point. I haven't seen the Rays do that yet, though they've absolutely been killing it with trades.

  10. #30
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    The Rays are also good because they shift and platoon and do other things well. Success is driven by end to end processes working in unison.
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    Yeah--I'm mostly just encouraged to see Meyer doing so well. We had full, impressive minor league seasons from Buxton and Rosario, so I'm not terribly worried about their AFL performances. It'd be nice to see Kepler do something, but as previously pointed out, he'd be expected to be over his head in the AFL.

    My biggest question I was hoping the AFL could answer is how Meyer is looking, and if he's bouncing back from his shoulder injury. The positive results we're seeing there are far more encouraging to me than the subpar performancese of the hitters are disheartening.
    This is pretty much exactly how I see it. I'm too new to this all to understand what most organizations use the AFL for, but it seems to provide an opportunity to save some of what could have been a lost year for Meyer. The hitters on the other hand get to see some more advanced approaches from pitchers. Even if they struggle a bit, I feel like it's a low-risk sneak peak at what they might see from pitchers next year.
    The sample size is so small that the statistics probably don't mean much. My guess is that it helps with some "intangibles" in terms of pitch recognition. I wonder if those kinds of skills are the type that take some time to present themselves in statistics, whether the results are positive or negative.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDean View Post
    This is pretty much exactly how I see it. I'm too new to this all to understand what most organizations use the AFL for, but it seems to provide an opportunity to save some of what could have been a lost year for Meyer. The hitters on the other hand get to see some more advanced approaches from pitchers. Even if they struggle a bit, I feel like it's a low-risk sneak peak at what they might see from pitchers next year.
    The sample size is so small that the statistics probably don't mean much. My guess is that it helps with some "intangibles" in terms of pitch recognition. I wonder if those kinds of skills are the type that take some time to present themselves in statistics, whether the results are positive or negative.
    Yeah, the stats don't mean much but the approach, stuff etc is what the scouts are looking for when facing higher talent than before and playing a longer season. And teams also push players to either highlight for possible trades (I think the Twins could be doing this for both Rosario and Kepler) or to make a decision on rule v protections.

  13. #33
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The Rays are also good because they shift and platoon and do other things well. Success is driven by end to end processes working in unison.
    Sure, they do a lot of little things right that add up to a quality MLB team.

    But I see people talk about drafting and development... Are the Rays really that good at drafting and developing players? We simply don't know because they hit it big in a couple of drafts and they had the luxury of picking in the top five for almost a decade straight.

    If, in two years, they're producing loads of good players from the 08 and beyond drafts, then we'll know that their system truly is superior.

  14. #34
    Anyone have some stats available for any of the twins representatives? I didn't think they kept track but even some basic stuff such as "2 HR in 30 AB" would be nice.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by VandyTwinsFan View Post
    Anyone have some stats available for any of the twins representatives? I didn't think they kept track but even some basic stuff such as "2 HR in 30 AB" would be nice.
    Stats are kept on the MiLB website
    Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events

  16. #36
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    Brock- nice point on Tampa. That is something to think about.

    Question for the group- Why is May getting so little playing time? Have I missed something? He has 1 start and has appeared in 3 games for 5 total innings. Jones and Achter have more innings than May. It seems like he should have more time on the mound or why go?

  17. #37
    Thanks. I believe I was thinking of the instructional league. I was going to copy the stats to get them in the thread but I got a character limit. Now I feel like a noob and will go find a nice corner to think about what I've done.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Penz View Post
    Brock- nice point on Tampa. That is something to think about.

    Question for the group- Why is May getting so little playing time? Have I missed something? He has 1 start and has appeared in 3 games for 5 total innings. Jones and Achter have more innings than May. It seems like he should have more time on the mound or why go?
    May has a sore arm (tendinitis)... He may not pitch the remainder of the AFL...

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmarais66 View Post
    May has a sore arm (tendinitis)... He may not pitch the remainder of the AFL...
    Thank you.

  20. #40
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    ...
    although they constantly picked in the top 10...
    Good response to my post, though above I am only highlighting one of your reasonable points.

    I was thinking about these guys:
    Rays pitchers 2000 Draft & later
    Pitcher >100 ERA+
    James Shields 6 of 7 years
    David Price 4 of 5 years
    Matt Moore 3 of 3 years
    Jeremy Hellickson 2 of 3 years
    Alex Cobb 2 of 3 years


    But it is also true that every MLB team has struck out on their first round draft pick more than once.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

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