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Thread: Homer Bailey

  1. #1

    Homer Bailey

    Reds rumors: Cincinnati could trade Homer Bailey | MLB Injury News

    If this is a payroll move the Twins have the prospects to get him.

    Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.

    Or dangle Eddie Rosario if they are really contemplating trading Brandon Phillips.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    I think trading for Bailey would be a good move and is more in line with what I expect Ryan to do. Trade for him and then spend some of the money they are hoarding to sign him to a 4-5 year deal. Despite all of the talk, I have my doubts that Ryan spends big on a FA. I truly hope I am wrong, but think the best Ryan will end up with in FA is a Vargas/Feldman type.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

    I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

    I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.
    The article lays out some good thoughts on why they might trade him.
    1) He seems intent on hitting FA, and the Reds don't feel they will have the money to sign him at that point, so they would rather get talent back than let him walk.

    2) The Reds already have 4 comparable or better SP's as Bailey, and that number becomes 5 if they move Chapman into the rotation, so he is expendable.

  5. #5
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcfarmer View Post
    Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.
    Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

    to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

    But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

    to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

    But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.
    I think that the recent Garza trade is probably a good framework for the type of deal that Jocketty would expect. That leads me to think that the Twins could start with Berrios or Rosario to get the conversation started, but would probably require 3 or 4 players total. Maybe something like Berrios, Hicks and Plouffe, and maybe a pitcher like Baxendale. That is probably too rich for me, but it is a package that would get a return call from Jocketty.

    It will obviously depend on the specifics, but in principal I would support this. It would amazing to have someone in the starting rotation that is above average once every five days. Long term, I see 4 outcomes in this offseason acquisition, and most of them are good for the Twins.

    1) He signs a long-term deal to stay here. Yay! Their is finally an ace in the starting rotation.
    2) The Twins flip him at the trade-deadline, and hopefully recoup most if not all of the prospect value sent to the Reds in the off-season.
    3) The Twins keep him all year, offer him a qualifying offer, he don't resign, and get an extra first round pick. Hopefully he had a good year and they recoup some value.
    4) He blows out his arm/shoulder, and has no value. The Twins end up with crap.

  7. #7
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.
    He's a free agent in 2015, so he can be gone after 2014 if they don't re-sign him
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-09-2013 at 09:05 AM.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    He's a free agent in 2015.
    Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...
    No way.

    1. Shields is quite a bit better than Bailey. Bailey is more Edwin Jackson than James Shields.

    2. Given how the Shields trade has panned out (more about how Myers has played than any deficiency on the part of Shields), I don't see other teams approaching that kind of prospect trade for David Price, much less Homer Bailey.

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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...
    That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  12. #12
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I agree with the theory of acquiring a good starter who is going to get expensive, because the Twins have the payroll flexibility to pay the guy and offer an extension. Is Baily the right guy? Not sure, but putting up the numbers he has pitching in a bandbox indicates he is a pretty good pitcher. He will get very wealthy in arb this winter, putting two very nice season back to back. If I were the Twins, I would try to give the Reds position playing prospects and limit the pitchers, but it seems the currency of the realm these days is young pitching.

  13. #13
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    I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

    Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.
    I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.

  15. #15
    Did Vance Worly get sucked up into a vortex like Ozzie Smith did on the simpsons?

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

    Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.
    It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcfarmer View Post
    It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.
    Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.
    it's all good. we're all on the same page now. :-)
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  19. #19
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    A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation.

    Has the ship sailed on Chapman to the rotation? If they moved him out of the closer's role maybe Perkins would be an attractive piece (as part of a package).

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?
    With the one year deal the cost to acquire would be much less than Alex Meyer. The deal only works if you can get him for the right package.

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