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Thread: Suk-Min Yoon

  1. #41
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    ....But......aren't these 2 topics inextricably interlinked?
    Extricate them. You can do eet.

  2. #42
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I have zero problems with a team like the Twins going after lottery tickets. This is exactly what they should be doing. This guy is affordable, and while I hope it's not the only acquisition, it's the type of guy they can get cheaply, and if it pans out, becomes insanely valuable.

    Oh, and one nit to pick. I'm getting tired already of people using the "largest FA contract" to judge Twins contacts. I get that they are cheap, but they did just hand out 184M to some guy named Mauer. Technically, he wasn't an FA. I get that. In the same token though, it was one of the largest baseball contracts. EVER.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I have zero problems with a team like the Twins going after lottery tickets. This is exactly what they should be doing. This guy is affordable, and while I hope it's not the only acquisition, it's the type of guy they can get cheaply, and if it pans out, becomes insanely valuable.

    Oh, and one nit to pick. I'm getting tired already of people using the "largest FA contract" to judge Twins contacts. I get that they are cheap, but they did just hand out 184M to some guy named Mauer. Technically, he wasn't an FA. I get that. In the same token though, it was one of the largest baseball contracts. EVER.
    Uhh, how much do lottery tickets cost? A couple bucks, for the extremely unlikely chance to win millions. That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets, not what will likely end up being the biggest FA contract they've ever signed. To continue with your analogy, most lottery tickets are purchased by the poor.... and as any professional trader or gambler would tell you, that's "exactly what they" should NOT be doing... the poor have basic needs that need to be met, just like the Twins do.

    And then you mixed your metaphors, "some guy named Mauer" was how you should spend your big money on a long-term contract, ie, on proven talent, not on a "flyer".

  4. #44
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Can we sign someone not named Suk?
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

    I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).
    What exactly is wrong with his shoulder anyway? History has indicated that shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries to pitchers so if it's anything severe it's yet another red flag.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    What exactly is wrong with his shoulder anyway? History has indicated that shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries to pitchers so if it's anything severe it's yet another red flag.
    He's been dealing with the shoulder issue since 2009, and he's had good and bad years since then. Getting basically shut down for mop-up relief duty last year should be yet another red flag.

  7. #47
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I have trouble believing a guy who's shoulder problems/performance were bad enough to cost him his spot as a starter in the Korean League is going to get anywhere near 3/$21.

    I'll be surprised if he even gets a guaranteed 1 yr major league contract.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I have trouble believing a guy who's shoulder problems/performance were bad enough to cost him his spot as a starter in the Korean League is going to get anywhere near 3/$21.

    I'll be surprised if he even gets a guaranteed 1 yr major league contract.
    Yes, but Boras' imprimatur on the deal indicates that he isn't really going to waste his valuable time on any old fringy, marginally major league caliber pitcher, is he?

  9. #49
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    When I think "lottery tickets" as major league free agents, I typically think of guys where you're getting what you pay for... with a chance of getting something much better. (Liriano has been referred to as a lottery ticket this year.)

    Someone will pay him like a #4 (and I think 3/21 is reasonable, given his age) and hope that he can return to his 2010 form where he could be a front-end guy. Like I said before, a lot will depend on how he performs when he pitches for teams. If the velo is still down and there isn't a team that feels good about his medicals, he'll get less.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

    I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).
    From everything I have read he should be the Twins 3rd or 4th pitching acquisition that they can send to AAA if necessary. Spending 20+M on somebody like that seems silly. Now if we are talking about 5ish M then I am interested.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I don't think people in general are minimizing his past demonstration of his talents or his potential to bounce back. But even an anonymous source inside the Twins confirmed that he still projects as somewhat of a "lottery ticket" signing...and mindful that he isn't envisioned as front-end SP material. Remind me again of when's the last time the Twins were willing to take a flyer with the costs for the flyer starting at 3/$21?....That's what people are talking about...were it to occur, this would be the Twins one and only big offseason signing, with all the risks that it would entail.
    I think this isn't getting enough attention. We all wish the Twins would sign multiple pitchers to "big" contracts. 2 or 3 contracts each with >2 years on the deals would seem like a god send for this rotation. But when you get right down to it the Twins aren't going to do that. At best the Twins will sign 1 of those deals (even that is highly questionable).

    So to me we should be asking ourselves, is this the player we want to go with? Is he the best FA signing we want to see signed this off season?

    Clearly this is dependent on that 3/$21 number being roughly representational. If his value drops considerably into the 1 or 2 year deal then the above does not apply.

  12. #52
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Uhh, how much do lottery tickets cost? A couple bucks, for the extremely unlikely chance to win millions. That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets, not what will likely end up being the biggest FA contract they've ever signed. To continue with your analogy, most lottery tickets are purchased by the poor.... and as any professional trader or gambler would tell you, that's "exactly what they" should NOT be doing... the poor have basic needs that need to be met, just like the Twins do.

    And then you mixed your metaphors, "some guy named Mauer" was how you should spend your big money on a long-term contract, ie, on proven talent, not on a "flyer".
    I think you read a bit more into what I was trying to say...

    Then again, at the same time, this is worthy of response. You slam the Twins for not following the Cubs model going after lottery tickets such as Baker (did not pay off) and Feldman (paid off) and then in the same token say not to do it here. Which one do you want? From here it just looks like trying to be contrarian, or simply using an ever changing set of critera to slam the FO. As I said before, I don't have a problem with the Twins going after a lottery ticket like this. The odds don't quite fit your analogy, and I do agree that at a certain price they should drop out, and if you notice, I never quoted a price. Also, I wouldn't call the Twins poor. They aren't the A's or KC. They are in a budget place where they can afford this and still afford to do other things. If this is the only aquisition, then I'd most definitely pass unless he's a lot cheaper than 3/21.

    As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.
    The problem with your argument is that extending your own players is not the same as signing free agents. In the case of younger players, there is often a discount involved in an extension because the reserve system gives leverage to the clubs. Even for players with more than 6 years of service time, the current club is often taking on additional risk by extending a year or more prior to free agency, and in exchange usually pays less per year than would result from free agency.

    And even in the scenario where there is no direct financial benefit, a player's current organization will have the most knowledge about his abilities, health, and makeup, all of which are critical in deciding how much to offer. So it's no surprise that extended players are safer bets compared to free agents (born out by studies - there was one on Fangraphs this past off-season).

    The Twins have still managed to botch the handling of their own players, of course (e.g., Blackburn), but the bottom line is that the excessively risk-averse Twins view free agents in a completely different light than their own players. They never would give a free agent a Mauer-like contract, so that decision is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether the Twins are unwilling to spend money on free agents.

    The simple fact is that they are, while other clubs- who fully understand the downsides to the free agent market - nonetheless rely on it as an important source of players.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.
    In addition to what drivelikejehu already stated, which was a fantastic rebuttal, the man making the signing decisions is not the same man who signed Mauer to that contract. Ryan has stated several times that he is unwilling to sign players to long term or big money deals. The biggest contract he has ever given out is 4 years and $40 million to a 25 year old Johan Santana who was coming off of a stunning year (he posted an ERA+ of 182!!!) for which he won the Cy Young award.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I think you read a bit more into what I was trying to say...

    Then again, at the same time, this is worthy of response. You slam the Twins for not following the Cubs model going after lottery tickets such as Baker (did not pay off) and Feldman (paid off) and then in the same token say not to do it here. Which one do you want? From here it just looks like trying to be contrarian, or simply using an ever changing set of critera to slam the FO. As I said before, I don't have a problem with the Twins going after a lottery ticket like this. The odds don't quite fit your analogy, and I do agree that at a certain price they should drop out, and if you notice, I never quoted a price. Also, I wouldn't call the Twins poor. They aren't the A's or KC. They are in a budget place where they can afford this and still afford to do other things. If this is the only aquisition, then I'd most definitely pass unless he's a lot cheaper than 3/21.

    As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.
    From an old public service radio commercial...."it's misconception mania day".

    I clearly stated that when the Twins are playing the lottery game....."That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets...." they should buy low, Rich Harden was a great example of a guy, who if he had panned out on a make-good minor league deal, would have been a huge lotto winner. Suk is the diametric opposite of that approach- now if Suk ends up signing for one year somewhere between Marcum and Haren range, that would be the other end of the range of the lottery nature of a speculative signing- do we really want to take the chance to relive 3 years of the Twins folly in foisting Blackburn ineptitude on the roster? And I stand by what I said previously, were the Twins to see Suk in his tryout and go all in, that will be The Big Signing. They have to do better. The Pirates hit the jackpot with Liriano on a 2/$7M deal that got even better when Liriano had his domestic difficulties. That's the type of deals that the Twins should be looking for if they want to play the lotto with a small portion of their available dollars.

    Regarding Mauer, I referenced and reiterated your point exactly in its context relative to your first point. I didn't say that you bashed the contract, it was 4 years ago now that the Twins justifiably extended the centerpiece of their franchise with a proven quality and bankable piece of merchandise in potential HOFer Joe Mauer...... yet they obviously failed to have a clearly-thought-out long-term conception about how to be annually competitive with a Mauer-led team, who the Plan A and Plan B actors would, or could be, to keep the team atop the AL Central, and what it would take to justify the expense of having one top-heavy contract- should circumstances change radically. Clearly, their thoughts concerning taking the risks and doing what it takes by going outside the organization by adding more FA proven quality, and building around Mauer in his prime production years is not even remotely on their philosophical radar. To the contrary, they've been in slow-mo rebuild/breakdown the payroll mode for the last 2 years, with at least 2 more years to come. Now what's so ignorant about that ever-present reality?
    Last edited by jokin; 10-18-2013 at 05:49 PM.

  16. #56
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Extricate them. You can do eet.
    I guess the thread failed at that.

    This thread is a perfect example of what a lot of people are fed up with (and why I've posted less and less) -- far too many threads devolve into the exact. same. story. and debate about the front office, usually with the exact same posters. What hasn't been said on that already?

    We can tie almost any and every topic to front office spending in some way. Why can't we have a thread to just talk about Suk-Min Yoon and what he could turn out to be.... without rehashing the exact same commentary on the front office?

  17. #57
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    If they are going to sign a guy coming off injury, as a lottery ticket, I'd rather they go with someone that has already been good in the MLB, like Lincecum or someone else.
    Lighten up Francis....

  18. #58
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The problem with your argument is that extending your own players is not the same as signing free agents. In the case of younger players, there is often a discount involved in an extension because the reserve system gives leverage to the clubs. Even for players with more than 6 years of service time, the current club is often taking on additional risk by extending a year or more prior to free agency, and in exchange usually pays less per year than would result from free agency.

    And even in the scenario where there is no direct financial benefit, a player's current organization will have the most knowledge about his abilities, health, and makeup, all of which are critical in deciding how much to offer. So it's no surprise that extended players are safer bets compared to free agents (born out by studies - there was one on Fangraphs this past off-season).

    The Twins have still managed to botch the handling of their own players, of course (e.g., Blackburn), but the bottom line is that the excessively risk-averse Twins view free agents in a completely different light than their own players. They never would give a free agent a Mauer-like contract, so that decision is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether the Twins are unwilling to spend money on free agents.

    The simple fact is that they are, while other clubs- who fully understand the downsides to the free agent market - nonetheless rely on it as an important source of players.
    Yes and no. I agree that extending your players isn't always like a FA. The Santana exension is a good example of this, as the Twins had all the leverage and could get an extra year of FA. Mauer on the other hand was not that case. That's my point. I think the idea of bashing the front office for not handing out huge FA contracts is kind of silly when they handed out a pretty big contract to Mauer a few years ago. I get that Bill Smith was the guy in charge when that happened and that Mauer technically still had one more year of control, but to pretend like this is far different from a FA contract is just wrong. There's an insane amount of risk being taken on by signing a catcher to that large of a contract for that long of a time, especially given that catchers tend to wear down more than others. I'd add that there's far more risk than a typical FA contract here as well.

    I also think it's a pretty safe bet that Ryan would have done that too. There's no way the Pohlads were going to let Joe leave after they got their stadium. My whole point has been that using this concept of the largest FA contract is Twins history is nothing more than wording things for the purpose of drama, and doing so in a way that ignores that 184M one they just handed out a few years back. I get that Mauer wasn't a true FA, but these situations aren't that much different.

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