10-17-2013, 07:23 AM #41
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10-17-2013, 08:05 AM #42
10-20-2013, 09:24 AM #43
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1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of thewinning post
I agree with this statement 100%
2) A veteran catcher will be signed.
I disagree with this statement 100%
3) Terry Ryan will hand out the largest free agent contract in franchisehistory.
I am going to reluctantly agree with you asI don’t think Terry Ryan wants to but may be pressured to from the front officeand fans to the point of having too. Thatcontract may require the option to be exercised to work.
4) Miguel Sano will emerge as the favorite to start 2014 at third base.
I 100% disagree with thisstatement. If this happens its becauseTerry Ryan doesn’t do #3 and they need to show fans hope or something along thelines of future greatness.
5) Brian Duensing will be non-tendered.
I 98% disagreewith this statement as he is liked on this team and effective and not tooexpensive compared to where payroll needs to be. But we’ll find out quickly though as theTwins are usually nice in that they do those moves quickly to give the playermore of a chance to find work.
My 5 predictions:
1. The Twins will resign Pelfry
2. The Twins will find another international gem prospect that flies under the radar and sign him during the offseason. They will spend about 3 million of their 4million or so allotted to them thus wasting an opportunity to max out and get more international prospects.
3. The Twins will sign a backup if who can play SS or 3rd and play well defensively while being able to hit occasionally (I can see a Punto reunion here if he doesn't resign with the Dodgers)
4. I can see the Twins signing a SP who is coming off of injuries/ ineffectiveness to a lower base contract with incentives and options to make the contract the largest in Twins history. (Colby Lewis, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes...someone with upside and a name but down on their luck who could benefit playing here but still be signed on Terry Ryans terms)
5. I wish I could say that There will be a platoon at 1b with Parmelee and Colabello next year with a dash of Plouffe and Mauer when Sano is ready or Mauer needs a break but instead I'll go with the Twins resign Morneau to a 1 year deal because no one else will and the Twins are not smart enough to try a platoon.
10-22-2013, 01:26 PM #44
I'm just going to address #1 because I think Tanaka is the key to a lot of things. This is a rare opportunity, and while there are serious unknowns, I think you have to use Darvish as a baseline. Q1 - how much would you pay a 24-year-old Darvish as a free agent? Q2 - isn't the math a simple matter of taking the answer to Q1 and subtracting what you anticipate paying on the actual contract? I think given the politics, money, and PR of this franchise, you would pay him $150+ million for 10 years, and therefore, if you feel you can sign him for 10/$75, you post $75M (which, I think, will win). This also dovetails into the points made by other posters about the future of the franchise being minor leaguers under control and the commensurate low cost for them. Puts a lot of eggs in one basket, but you add a rotation anchor like Tanaka and then sign one more $15M/yr pitcher and you've changed this franchise completely. I think it trickles down to players having better batting averages because they are more engaged in games and not so nervous that they need to score 8 runs to win. And it wouldn't even take more money (not even the TV revenue money) than what is coming off the books with Pelfry, Morneau, and Blackburn.
Can't we just call Tanaka our Pelfry/Morneau/Blackburn, then start thinking about spending the $30M in new revenue on another quality arm and high-quality bat in the infield, and then strongly consider increasing the payroll of this franchise to where it should be ($100 M) by being ready to pull the trigger on that "one more piece" as early as June if we're remotely competitive.....along with our usual fliers on guys coming off injury or otherwise low $?
10-22-2013, 03:22 PM #45
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Isn't next years payroll around 45-50 million at this point? add 75 million posting fee and we have already blown past the budget. Now we just need to pay Tanaka on top of that for next year 10 million and sign another pitcher at 15 million = 150,000,000 spent on players for next year which is way over budget. If the posting fee was 50 million and we resign Pelfry for 5 million we are only a little over budget and the posting fee is a one time expense so we will have more money available after next season. but i doubt this is the way they will build this team.
10-23-2013, 12:30 PM #46
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the team has already stated that the posting fee is not like the payroll.....they don't count them the same way. At least, that is my recollection.Lighten up Francis....