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Thread: Org Discusion

  1. #1
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Org Discusion

    Sickles has his MN 2014 discussion here. It might be a good idea for us to chat about it.

    My take is that I have Meyer, May, Rosario, Hicks, and Sano all starting in AAA next year. All will be rotated in as positions open or as they earn it. Plouffe and Parmelee get one more shot and we get to see if Dozier is for real as well. Gibson starts in MLB for certain.

  2. #2
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    Good link. Agree with what you said, although Parmelee might not get another chance. As to sleepers, has anyone seen any current scouting reports on guys like Thorpe or Jorge? Not game logs, but scout's analysis.

    One thing I could see happening this off season is Ryan exploring trades of Perkins and Dozier/Rosario. Not sure if it'll happen but I think he makes at least one semi-large trade.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    I'd like to know more about Thorpe and Jorge as well. The only scouting reports I've seen are the ones from when they were 16 year olds. It'd be nice to see something a little more up to date.
    Polanco is a good sleeper since he has't really gotten much attention from guys like Sickels, Mayo and Law.
    I though some of the people that commented were a little too conservative with Sano. One guy thought he should start the year in AA with a chance to move to AAA late in the year. I think he has to start in AAA and unless he's overmatched, get him to Target Field sometime in May.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    There is write-ups on both in the last month in this forum. Jorge was underrated IMO. He hits the mid-90's with his FB, has good movement on it, his secondary stuff is coming along. To top it off, he is like 6'2" and 170, so he will add some bulk. I still see his ceiling as top of the rotation, with him being (obviously) more likely to be a mid-rotation or bullpen guy. Either way, he looks to be a legit MLB talent right now with projectability.

    I have seen a lot less on Thorpe, but the real test will be full season ball for both.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  5. #5
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Very good range of comments on that site.

    I have no idea how to offer a sleeper prospect there, our good prospects are well known. I could post "Rosario" and then when someone protests he's good but not a sleeper, I can say "I meant the other one", and if someone protests that he's not unknown enough either, I can say "I meant the other other one".

  6. #6
    How about Adam Walker? Could he be considered a sleeper?

  7. #7
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    My own personal feeling is that anyone rated in the top-20 (prospects) of their league by BA can not be a sleeper... especially since BA acknowledged that Walker's status is discounted because of his age and walk to strikeout ratio.

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    Sleeper clearly means different things to different people. For people who only read BA or check out mlb.com then some good names to watch for are Stephen Gonsalves and Felix Jorge. They both had great years (though Gonsalves was drafted this season and made limited starts). IMO, they both have a chance to be top 10 Twins prospects going into 2015. Thorpe probably not until 2016 because he'll pitch next season at Elizabethton and it takes a year at A-Ball before guys start to get recognized, unless your a top draft pick or big money FA signing. Another player to keep an eye on is Miguel Sulbaran, he is what the Twins got back in the Butera trade and while he has been ranked he is new to the Twins.

    Guys who I don't think will be top 20 prospects next season but that intrigue me: Zach Granite, Zach Larson and Stuart Turner. Luke Bard will also be back from surgery next season so that will be fun to see. Am I remembering correctly that Chargois decided to do TJ surgery just a month or so ago?

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Depends on how the Twins approach next year. Gibson is a lock to be here, most of the rest of the pitching prospects(suspects) should be in Rochester next year. Hitters will start to come up next year, will be more exciting than 2013

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    You have several great sleepers there, Ox!

    Just a note on Thorpe, however, that he actually was a rather big money signing. He received $500,000, which is the highest bonus for an Australian for at least the last three years.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    You have several great sleepers there, Ox!

    Just a note on Thorpe, however, that he actually was a rather big money signing. He received $500,000, which is the highest bonus for an Australian for at least the last three years.
    $500k isn't a particularly big contract in international FA. Certainly not big enough to get you noticed for a top 100 ranking. The Twins signed Lewin Diaz and Amurys Minier for $1.4 million each over the last few years. Of course the big haul was Miguel Sano who signed for over $3 million, though that much money is unlikely now because of the new spending caps. It's worth keeping in mind also that the Twins, outside of Sano, like to spread their money around more than other teams. This season alone there have been at least 12 players signed for more than $1 million.

    I'm not a big enough prospect hound to have an idea of how many international signings get ranked within their first year of playing, but Miguel Sano was ranked #60 after his GCL season (what Thorpe just finished). He was considered one of the best international prospects in many years and got paid like it.

    Thorpe might very well be ranked one day, as we all hope, but he doesn't have enough "clout" at this point and won't until after full season ball.

  12. #12
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    Other than the occasional elite signees like Sano and Ynoa there are usually 1-2 guys ranked basically as lottery picks at the end of prospect lists. And most of those guys don't even make it to AA but the ranker can look really smart in hindsight.

    I can't remember if there was also a scouting report but somebody like Sickels, Law, Callis, etc mentioned that Thorpe would be considered a late first rd pick if he were draft eligible.

    Jorge's bonus was in 300K range IIRC. I really liked the video that I saw when he signed so he has always been a favorite sleeper of mine.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Thorpe might very well be ranked one day, as we all hope, but he doesn't have enough "clout" at this point and won't until after full season ball.
    I apologize for not being able to link this b/c I don't remember where it was. Probably a BA chat. But the author guessed that Thorpe, if he was an American high school student, would be a late first round pick to follow for the upcoming draft (meaning he could move up the boards if he had a good senior season). I think if the scouting reports on him change - ie, his fastball really is sitting 95, increased improvement of secondary pitches, a year from now he'll have put himself in position to be on the 2015 prospect list even if he's still only in rookie ball in 2014.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Other than the occasional elite signees like Sano and Ynoa there are usually 1-2 guys ranked basically as lottery picks at the end of prospect lists. And most of those guys don't even make it to AA but the ranker can look really smart in hindsight.

    I can't remember if there was also a scouting report but somebody like Sickels, Law, Callis, etc mentioned that Thorpe would be considered a late first rd pick if he were draft eligible.

    Jorge's bonus was in 300K range IIRC. I really liked the video that I saw when he signed so he has always been a favorite sleeper of mine.
    I somehow didn't see your post when I posted mine.

  15. #15
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    Yikes did I get all turned around in this conversation. At some point I began thinking we were talking about the annual top 100 prospect lists. Ughhhh.

    The source you are looking for was the BA GCL top prospect rankings and chat. It is all covered on Thorpe's adopt-a-prospect page or the aforementioned BA GCL prospect thread.

    Making the back end of a Twins top 20 prospect lists is certainly possible this season for Felix Jorge, though my guess is Thorpe will be in the 20-25 range.

    I looked at BA GCL top 20 prospect list following the 2012 season and compared it to teams top 20 list. There were about 10-15 prospects that made their teams top 20 list. Most of these were players drafted that year in the top few rounds. A few were big money international signings. There were three players however that I could find very little data for from the time of their signing, suggesting that they were in fact not big money signings or highly regarded at the time. They were a Tiger's 2B, a Brave's SS and a Blue Jays pitcher. The 2B and SS had played in the VSL in 2011 and GCL in 2012. Both had put up good numbers in each league. The pitcher made 11 starts for the GCL and 3 for in the Appy league in 2012 before being ranked. He was very good but not dominant I would say (similar to Jorge's 2012 season). So take that how you would like too. It can happen but how you view Thorpe's chances depend a great deal on how you view the Twin's farm system, not just at the top, but in it's depth as well.

  16. #16
    I think this off-season is the high-water mark for the minor leagues. I predict that Sano, Meyer, and Rosario all use up their rookie eligibility in 2014. Sano and Meyer will both be up after the super-two cutoff. Rosario comes up at the trade deadline. I also think Buxton will start in AA, and like the other elite prospects before him (Trout, Machado, Harper) won't stay very long. He'll be up in September at the latest, and possibly early enough to use up his rookie eligibility.

  17. #17
    A lot of people in the Sickels forum were saying to delay their arrivals. If they are ready, that doesn't make sense. They have them for six years, and if they succeed early they should be able to offer a contract extension that gives price certainty over their arbitration years as well as team options for a couple extra years. (see Longoria, Evan) If they go that route all but Buxton and Sano are through their "prime" years anyway (27-30). (And if they sustain success they can always throw another few years on the end.)

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    I don't think all will use eligibility next season. In fact, I think the only one that has a shot will be Sano. Meyer didn't even throw enough innings this entire season to qualify, he'd have to get promoted and have success right away (and not get hurt.... which I'm not too optimistic about). Rosario's promotion is depending on Brian Dozier. The Twins should just slide Dozier back to SS and bring Rosario up when he's ready, but they wont do that. And Buxton, there is almost no chance at all he uses his rookie eligibility. He might get called up at some point after the AS break, might, but I don't expect to see him any sooner than September.

    As a whole, I'm still very skeptical of the Twins rotation (especially Meyer and May). I don't really see anything changing until Stewart is up... which will be after Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia have become established and Mauer is gone. If Terry Ryan is gone by then things might change, otherwise its going to be a frustrating 4 years.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Meyer didn't even throw enough innings this entire season to qualify
    That's actually not true. He threw 78 innings this year, plus he's throwing in the AFL. That is significantly more work than Gibson put in for 2012, and he threw a touch over 150 innings this year.

    There is no reason to think Meyer won't be green-lighted to throw at least 150-170 next year. He will be on a similar course as Gibson was this year, so with early success he could easily throw 50+ for the Twins next year.

  20. #20
    And if not, I hope it is because the Twins Traded for David Price and there simply isn't room for Meyer in Minneapolis

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