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Thread: The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

  1. #61
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one.

    Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.
    Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia? Not in your plans at all?

  3. #63
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Only current top 150 prospects are worth trading for? That is a preposterous claim. Travis Harrison, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, DJ Baxendale, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Zach Jones, and on and on and on are not top 150 prospects right now.
    Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.

  4. #64
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.
    Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.

    Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.

  5. #65
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.
    My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

    I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."

  6. #66
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    That is a preposterous claim.
    Moderator note -- I realize that you guys are having a spirited discussion, but language like this is inherently disrespectful and potentially inflammatory.

    It's OK to say you disagree, and forcefully argue why. But when you characterize someone else's idea a "preposterous", this actually weakens your argument and your ability to persuade the other person. It is better when you explain in a friendly way why you feel that their position is preposterous. Then, the other person might even be persuaded that they were wrong, or at the very least they will respond with respect.

    You are having a good discussion. Please keep it within TD policy.

  7. #67
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.


    Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.


    They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.

  8. #68
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

    I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

  9. #69
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

    I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.
    Maybe two of them start the season in AAA while Willingham and/or Doumit have a hot start and reclaim some trade value. Both were legit major league players as recently as 2012. Or maybe Hammer and/or Doumit contribute to a team that is better than we have any right to hope for. Or maybe they both tank even worse than they did in 2013, and you can't even get what little you'd get now for them. I think that's a risk worth taking...it's really not much of a risk at all.

    In any case, if/when better players are on hand, I would guess the "problem" will resolve itself. Until then, I don't see the rush.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  10. #70
    I don't think it would be too far fetched for Willingham to have an OPS are .850 around mid-season. If so, I think the return you could get would make it worth keeping him around for 2-3 months, especially when he isn't really blocking anyone.
    BYTO R.I.P.

  11. #71
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

    I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."
    That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.

  12. #72
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

    I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.
    Herrmann should, but the others should stay. Chris was bad with Twins and even worse with the Red Wings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.
    My personal feeling is it was a clubhouse thing and the "suckage" was contagious. A few injury issues here and there for Josh too. What's 10 million to spend elsewhere when we currently have 50 million we aren't spending elsewhere? Also, you don't win a division with a bunch of 20 year old kids. You need veterans, especially since the coaching staff sure as hell can't teach these kids anything.
    Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 10-12-2013 at 05:38 PM.

  13. #73
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.
    I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.
    Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

    I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.

  15. #75
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

    I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.
    Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

    And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.

  16. #76
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I still think the very viable target lies between the Butera and Morneau trades. One reason I say that is because I think the Twins were actually looking for someone like Presley--someone MLB-ready to play every day in the OF. This focused the search in the Pirates system instead of targeting younger pitching.

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

    And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.
    So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?

  18. #78
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?
    No. First I realize it's a gamble to hope for two starters down the road. Second, it isn't clear to me that Willingham and Doumit and their 1,000 plate appearances is really going to be an improvement over those 1,000 plate appearances going to whatever combination of Arcia, Parmelee, Pinto, and Herrmann. It certainly isn't a matter of more than a couple wins. It could very well be the opposite. Third, I don't see how giving 1,000 plate appearances to those two does any good for the future of the Twins beyond 2014.

  19. #79
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    And fourth, again, that $10.5 million or whatever would look better when given to a FA starting pitcher. It's conceivable that a straight up swapping out of Willingham and Doumit for one of those FA starters would balance the wins and losses. Plus getting playing time for actual future Twins and getting a couple minor league pitchers back . . .

  20. #80
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    The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs.

    You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade.

    Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability.
    Mauer (1B I guess)







    Dozier - 2B
    Arcia (should spend 2+ months in AAA)


    Plouffe - 3B
    Pinto - C
    Colabello - DH
    Parmelee - RF
    Mastro - CF


    Hicks - (should spend 2+ months in AAA)
    Pressley - LF I guess
    florimon - SS
    This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.

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