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Thread: The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)

  1. #161
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    Draft decisions should be made on present-day, individual analyses and not on past results. It doesn't matter what happened in the past--it's what is now. There are advantages in both: the HS kid is younger, is more malleable for training, and has less wear-and-tear--he also has less experience and all of of it at lesser competition. The individual(s) is what matters, not past results. Example: Twins results with college pitchers in 1st round has been poor, but that that shouldn't affect this year's decision. In the same vein, the success of other franchises with college pitchers doesn't mean that the Twins will have the same result(s)--so that should not be the basis for decision. The decision must be made on the individuals this year​ and not on previous years.
    Last edited by Kwak; 12-21-2013 at 02:03 PM.

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  3. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Buxton and Stewart offer a small sample size. The benefit of Bill James' longitudinal research is that multiple players were evaluated over several years of draft data.

    J.C. Bradbury evaluates several of Bill James' theories in the following post. Scroll down to #9 if you want to read his entire rebuttal on James' theory on drafting college players. Here's his argument in a nutshell:
    "The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players, we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone."

    http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomi...th-bill-james/

    Two other writers identify with James' research. Carl Bialik writes "Why it Pays to Go to College"

    http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/0...go-to-college/

    Bialik quotes several sources to prove his point, most notably Keith Scherer, an analyst for Baseball Prospectus. His findings:

    "65 percent of the collegians earned at least one Win Share through their Age 30 seasons; only 41 percent of the high schoolers did the same.
    Seven of the top 10 Win Shares earners through Age 30 were collegians.
    The collegians account for 64 percent of all Win Shares earned by these two groups (again, through their Age 30 seasons).The high-school draftees earned an average of 15 Win Shares through age 30. Their college counterparts earned 26 Win Shares, a 65 percent lead over the high schoolers. (That difference of 11 Win Shares equals roughly four victories.)

    Even if we consider only the pitchers who reached the majors, the collegians still do better: an average of 41 Win Shares for the college guys, 37 for the high schoolers.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1811682

    I've been surfing the net, trying to find other longitudinal studies that include more recent data. All the same, it would take a dramatic shift of success by high school players to overcome the weight of evidence that already exists--drafting a college-level ballplayer is a better bet than drafting a high school player.

    There has been a shift to HS players, even Oakland and the Mets GM (both 'college heavy' guys) have picked high school talent over college talent, opting for the best HS hitter over the best college hitter in both cases. McKinney (out of my backyard in West Plano) and Smith (for the Mets).

    That data from Bill James is dated. It ebbs and flows both ways. I have data in a database since 1970. You will find that more college players make MLB (less distance to go, injuries, etc) but more HS players accumlate WAR over 20, over 30, and over 50. HS picks tend to be better players (that make the pros), but more college athletes make the pros.

    Looking at the best players in the game you can find most of them are HS players or international signings.

    Here's a sampling...

    P - Clayton Kershaw (HS), Max Scherzer (College), Jose Fernandez (HS), Adam Wainright (College)
    C - Yadier Molina (Int FA), Joe Mauer (HS), Buster Posey (College)
    1B - Chris Davis (CC), Paul Goldschmidt (College), Edwin Encarnacion (Int/HS), Freddie Freeman (HS), Joey Votto (HS)
    2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA), Dustin Pedroia (College), Jeff Kipnis (College)
    SS - Hanley Ramirez (Int FA), Andrelton Simmons (JC), Troy Tulowitzski (college)
    3B - Miguel Cabrera (Int FA), Manny Machado (HS), Adrian Beltre (Int FA)
    LF - Jayson Werth (HS), Torii Hunter (HS), Michael Cuddyer (HS)
    CF - Mike Trout (HS), Andrew McCutchen (HS), Adam Jones (HS), Carlos Gomez (Int FA)
    RF - Jay Bruce (HS), Yasiel Puig (Int FA), Wil Myers (HS)

    Then the last decade...some attempts...

    C - Joe Mauer (HS), Yadier Molina (Int FA)
    1B - Albert Pujols (CC)
    2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA)
    SS - Derek Jeter (HS)
    3B - A-Rod (HS), Miggy Cabrera (Int FA)
    LF - Barry Bonds (College)
    CF - Torii Hunter (HS)
    RF - Vladimir Guerrero (Int FA)
    DH - David Ortiz (Int FA)

  4. #163
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    Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years?

    1. Joe Mauer
    2. Torii Hunter
    3. Justin Morneau
    4. Brad Radke
    5. Chuck Knoblauch
    6. Michael Cuddyer

    Then maybe...

    Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...?

    Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?

  5. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years?

    1. Joe Mauer
    2. Torii Hunter
    3. Justin Morneau
    4. Brad Radke
    5. Chuck Knoblauch
    6. Michael Cuddyer

    Then maybe...

    Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...?

    Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?
    Your header said they were draft picks....

  6. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    Your header said they were draft picks....
    Ha, touche...more clear. Which 'pool' were they picked from, the kiddie pool (high school) or the frat party (college)?

  7. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You continue to reference articles from a decade ago using draft data from 2 decades ago. That had some relevance a decade ago but it doesn't matter when you are talking about individual top of draft talents..
    I have said, and continue to say, that the Twins should be prejudiced toward college-level talent. The statistical data goes back several decades, and continues to this day. This does not mean that a high school-level talent can't overule conventional wisdom. I have not stated that "ALL high school players shoud be avoided at pick #5." Did I say that? But this draft squares up with a number of college-level arms that could be legitimate top 5 picks. Given the statistical preponderance of evidence supporting college talent, and the nature of the 2014 draft, the balances continue to swing in the direction of pitchers like Hoffman, Finnegan and Beede. Cmb0252 refers to http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...s-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here.

    Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

    Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nat...tionalsjournal

  8. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.
    I don't think anyone is arguing that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft. They are just interested in the BPA, whether the P means Player or Pitcher.

    I don't think you can be convinced.

    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nat...tionalsjournal
    Do you know how many MLB starting pitchers drafted after 1965 have made the Hall of Fame? One -- Bert Blyleven. Does that mean we should wait until the 3rd round to draft pitchers and then draft them out of high school.

    Of course if you followed that author's logic, you would draft position players, not pitchers. And you would be biased (or in your words prejudiced) towards high schoolers.

    Now there is an apparent bias towards college starting pitchers at the top of the first round. That's because there is more maturity, more refinement, more success against a higher competition. In 2013 it was Appel and Gray. As of now, it appears to be Rodon and Hoffman. That doesn't mean if you are the Twins that you should be prejudiced in favor of a college SP at #4 or #5. As has been said, no one is complaining about Kohl Stewart.

    I think most of us would boo the Twins if they drafted the 2013 Beede with his poor control (lack of refinement). If he makes that refinement next year, the outlook would be different. That doesn't mean someone else would be wrong to prefer Kolech or Turner or Jackson or whoever they think is BPA.

  9. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.
    This is where the disconnect lies. Nobody is arguing that the Twins should take a HS player. They are disagreeing that there should be a preference towards a college pick. The Twins should consider ALL potential picks that are worth the #5 pick. There are college pitchers, HS pitchers, HS hitters and college hitters that are in the mix at #5. Eliminating a talent like Kolek, Gatewood or Jackson from consideration would be foolish for the Twins.

  10. #169
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    At number five the Twins should be targeting someone that is a franchise player. Someone that immediately because #1 or #2 at his position in the minor league system. I think the HOF, college vs High school numbers gets that discussion off track. Who, from this class, today, do you see fulfilling that role? The Twins have broken from their "Twins Player" drafting enough over the last few drafts that the 1st pick is truly wide open. Rodon, Hoffman, Turner, Kolek, Jackson (if he stays at C 1, outfield 2-3), Gatewood (If he stays at SS), and Maybe Toussiant; fit that role in my option. Who do you guys see as a franchise player? (pretend like we don't already have 3-4 in our system already )
    Last edited by maxisagod; 12-22-2013 at 11:37 AM.

  11. #170
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    The Twins should be targeting whichever top talent is still available at #5 regardless of position or HS/UNI experience. The hope is that there are at least 5 elite talents in the draft. Last year there were 4 imo and the Twins got the 4th which happened to be a HS'er. This year it looks like there are 3 pitchers in that mix (Rodon, Hoffman and Kolek) with Turner, Gatewood (seems like he could drop this spring), Jackson and a couple of others that could rise. but the pool of elite talents could change considerably before the draft. All of them should be on the radar but whether or not they are 1st rd'ers or top 5 picks is unknown.

  12. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    This is where the disconnect lies. Nobody is arguing that the Twins should take a HS player. They are disagreeing that there should be a preference towards a college pick. The Twins should consider ALL potential picks that are worth the #5 pick. There are college pitchers, HS pitchers, HS hitters and college hitters that are in the mix at #5. Eliminating a talent like Kolek, Gatewood or Jackson from consideration would be foolish for the Twins.
    The disconnect lies in a basic misunderstanding between the role of organizational strategy and operational tactics. Draft strategy begins with evaluating player talent over the next seven months. It also includes weighing the relative advantages or disadvantages of drafting a college-level player over/against a high school player. It would be foolish to make decisions without consulting this data, just as it would be foolish to lock in on a decision now.

    Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition.

    The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all.

    Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.

  13. #172
    Seems reasonable to me to pick the guy you have the most faith in regardless od HS or college. It appears thats what they did with Stewart. If they are on "the fence" between two prospects, I could see taking the college guy from a risk perspective.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 12-23-2013 at 11:04 AM.

  14. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    The disconnect lies in a basic misunderstanding between the role of organizational strategy and operational tactics. Draft strategy begins with evaluating player talent over the next seven months. It also includes weighing the relative advantages or disadvantages of drafting a college-level player over/against a high school player. It would be foolish to make decisions without consulting this data, just as it would be foolish to lock in on a decision now.

    Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition.

    The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all.

    Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.
    The disconnect lies in you misusing old draft results (20-30 year old drafts) to eliminate half of the draft pool. This college vs HS argument based on James findings from the 80's drafts is a small weighting when it comes draft time.

  15. #174
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    I'm looking forward to the 2014 MLB Draft...

    Definitely a lot more production in Starting Pitching (both High School and College) as well as power throughout the draft.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

    "This Draft is pretty good," the AL scouting director said. "I'm excited. I think the pitching is a little ahead of the hitting, but it's actually a really athletic Draft with the high school kids and there's a pretty strong crop of power bats from college. I can't remember a time when there was this much power available."
    Too bad we didn't have a lot of guys moving on like Fall 2011...I'd love more sandwich 1st RD picks in this upcoming draft.

  16. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The disconnect lies in you misusing old draft results (20-30 year old drafts) to eliminate half of the draft pool. This college vs HS argument based on James findings from the 80's drafts is a small weighting when it comes draft time.
    Who is eliminating half the draft pool? Me? You have turned my argument--positional bias in favor in favor of college-level pitchers into a straw-man argument where I am now eliminating half the draft pool.

    Also, James' research was conducted over several years, on a longitudinal basis, beyond just the 80's. So, now you want to narrow his findings too. Why?

    You say that college vs. high school considerations are a "small weighting" come draft time. At least you are willing to admit that there is some weight here.

    Let's call it a draw, kab21, and enjoy the speculation. That's all we're doing here, anyway. Speculating...
    Last edited by Don't Feed the Greed Guy; 12-23-2013 at 12:39 PM.

  17. #176
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    On the College vs High School Drafts - I can give you a rundown of total players drafted (4YR, HS, JC, Null (International), by position, who made the pros from each, and as they're incrementally better (5 WAR, 10 WAR, 20 WAR, 30 WAR, 40 WAR, 50 WAR).

    College will get you more guys who make the pros. Almost double of the -5 WAR to 5 WAR players. Guys like Kyle Gibson (if he never plays MLB again) would fall into this category. His WAR is -0.8. Clete Thomas, 1.3 WAR is another.

    Then as you go further along, it gets really close, less than 1-2% difference until you reach 30 WAR, then the high school players take off and are anywhere from 3-5 times more prevalent to have WAR over 30, over 40, and over 50.

    Of the top 7 players drafted by the Twins since 1989 are all high school athletes, but one, Corey Koskie (5th).

    1. Brad Radke - 44.5 WAR
    2. Joe Mauer - 44 WAR
    3. Torii Hunter - 42.5 WAR
    4. Chuck Knoblauch - 39.8 WAR
    5. Corey Koskie - 26.3 WAR
    6. Justin Morneau - 19.7 WAR
    7.
    Michael Cuddyer - 16.3 WAR

    WAR is from Fangraphs WAR rating.

    For what it's worth...

    Billy Beane, supposedly a 'pro college' guy took Billy McKinney (West Plano, TX - HS) in the first round. Sandy Alderson, who trained/groomed Billy Beane while in Oakland, is a pro-college athlete guy, he picked the best HS hitter (Dominic Smith) over the top College hitter, D.J. Peterson (picked next by the Mariners).



  18. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    I have said, and continue to say, that the Twins should be prejudiced toward college-level talent. The statistical data goes back several decades, and continues to this day. This does not mean that a high school-level talent can't overule conventional wisdom. I have not stated that "ALL high school players shoud be avoided at pick #5." Did I say that? But this draft squares up with a number of college-level arms that could be legitimate top 5 picks. Given the statistical preponderance of evidence supporting college talent, and the nature of the 2014 draft, the balances continue to swing in the direction of pitchers like Hoffman, Finnegan and Beede. Cmb0252 refers to http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...s-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here.

    Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

    Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nat...tionalsjournal

    I don't think anyone is claiming that they should look at HS "over & above"" College picks but they shouldn't do the opposite either.

    I think there is always going to be a higher risk with a HS pick but if the talent warrants the selection they should go for it.

    There have only been 4 HOF pitchers drafted since 1965 so the odds are against any of them being picked in the top 10. The odds are ALWAYS stacked against anyone being that great. For the record, the 4 are Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Goose Gossage & Dennis Eckersley. All HS picks. So it appears ,if you want to draft a HOF pitcher pick a HS pitcher.

    Another case could be made with Mauer. Drafting HS catchers is probably the highest risk possible but it turned out great with Mauer while the "safer" college pick of Prior flamed out. There is not "set in stone" formula.

    PS..twinsfan34.. I believe Knoblauch was a college draft pick from Texas A&M but your point is still correct.
    Last edited by golfboy1; 12-23-2013 at 07:34 PM.

  19. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by golfboy1 View Post

    PS..twinsfan34.. I believe Knoblauch was a college draft pick from Texas A&M but your point is still correct.
    I had thought so...

    But then I thought I looked it up and didn't see it. Good catch.

  20. #179
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    This is a snippet...of pitchers only.

    Randy Johnson (4YR), Greg Maddux (HS), Tom Glavine (HS), John Smoltz (HS), Jack Morris (4YR), Curt Schilling (JC) are also likely HOF candidates, but in Drafts prior to 1990. I haven't entered all the data into my Database before 1985 as there's many phases of the Draft. June Secondary, January Secondary, etc.

    Here's a rundown of pitchers drafted since 1990.

    Player_Name Club School_Type WAR
    Mike Mussina Orioles 4Yr 83.0
    Roy Halladay Blue Jays HS 64.6
    Andy Pettitte Yankees HS 60.8
    Tim Hudson Athletics 4Yr 57.0
    CC Sabathia Indians HS 55.3
    Mark Buehrle White Sox JC 53.9
    Roy Oswalt Astros JC 50.1
    Javier Vazquez Expos HS 46.0
    Brad Radke Twins HS 45.5
    Cliff Lee Expos 4Yr 43.3
    Justin Verlander Tigers 4Yr 40.3
    Jake Peavy Padres HS 37.3
    Zack Greinke Royals HS 36.9
    Cole Hamels Phillies HS 34.8
    Chris Carpenter Blue Jays HS 34.5
    Derek Lowe Mariners HS 34.5
    Josh Beckett Marlins HS 33.7
    Jered Weaver Angels 4Yr 33.6
    Dan Haren Cardinals 4Yr 33.4
    Barry Zito Athletics 4Yr 33.0
    Clayton Kershaw Dodgers HS 33.0
    Matt Cain Giants HS 32.5
    Brandon Webb Diamondbacks 4Yr 31.4
    Jason Schmidt Braves HS 29.6
    Adam Wainwright Braves HS 29.4
    Kevin Millwood Braves HS 29.4
    Mike Hampton Mariners HS 29.0
    Alex Fernandez White Sox JC 28.9
    Jarrod Washburn Angels 4Yr 28.5
    Billy Wagner Astros 4Yr 28.1
    Kerry Wood Cubs HS 27.7
    Jon Lester Red Sox HS 27.6
    John Lackey Angels JC 27.5
    Ted Lilly Blue Jays JC 27.0
    Joe Nathan Giants 4Yr 26.9
    Bronson Arroyo Pirates HS 25.7
    Jon Lieber Royals 4Yr 24.3
    Randy Wolf Phillies 4Yr 24.1
    James Shields Rays HS 23.8
    Josh Johnson Marlins HS 23.8
    Nick Markakis Reds HS 23.5
    Ben Sheets Brewers 4Yr 23.4
    Tim Lincecum Giants 4Yr 23.0
    Jon Garland Cubs HS 22.4
    Keith Foulke Giants 4Yr 20.9
    Aaron Sele Red Sox 4Yr 20.6
    Rick Helling Rangers 4Yr 20.6
    Matt Morris Cardinals 4Yr 20.5
    John Danks Rangers HS 20.4
    Dontrelle Willis Cubs HS 20.3
    Jermaine Dye Rangers HS 20.2
    Mark Mulder Athletics 4Yr 20.0
    Jonathan Papelbon Athletics 4Yr 19.7
    Brad Penny Diamondbacks HS 19.6
    Ryan Dempster Rangers HS 19.2
    Kyle Lohse Cubs HS 19.0
    Jeremy Guthrie Indians 4Yr 18.8
    David Price Rays 4Yr 18.6
    Doug Davis Dodgers HS 18.5
    Max Scherzer Diamondbacks 4Yr 18.1
    Erik Bedard Orioles JC 17.9
    Scott Kazmir Mets HS 17.8
    Rich Harden Mariners HS 17.6
    Aaron Harang Rangers 4Yr 17.5

  21. #180
    Thank you for sharing this list. A few things strike me when viewing it. One, Mike Mussina had an excellent career when compared with pitchers in his generation. Certainly HOF caliber. And Brad Radke had a heck of a career! Yes, a handful of the pitchers listed just below him are still pitching and will surely pass him but 45 career WAR is pretty outstanding. Too bad so many of those Twins teams weren't able to showcase his ability more.

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