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Thread: Terry Ryan on KFAN

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Agreed. Ryan himself says he doesn't feel free agents can help the Twins rebuild and he wants to do it with prospects. Well how do you get prospects? The draft and through trade. The Twins have next to nothing to trade right now, so use free agency to sign guys who have a possible profile of a tradable asset. Noodle armed swing men like Kevin Correia never had a chance of bringing back a return. The Yankees couldn't get anything for Hughes this season but he does have the pedigree and name where a turnaround season would give him considerable trade value.

    There are plenty of players on the market who may not be able to singlehandedly turn the club around in 2014 but will be valuable to competitive teams come next July. Of course the Twins still may have to be willing to eat some salary.
    And he's not likely to trade prospects to acquire proven MLB talent either. From another article:

    'To address all the shortcomings, Ryan might have to get creative. His one area of strength is his farm system. The Twins can covet their prospects all they want, but no team has seen all its top 10 prospects thrive in the majors. Is Ryan willing to trade prospects for established talent? For the right deal, is he willing to move one of the mega prospects such as Buxton or Sano for pitching?

    “Depending on who you are talking about and the situation and all that, if something comes up like that where someone presents something like that, we will take it all under consideration and see what the ramifications are,” Ryan said.'

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...tml?page=2&c=y
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Terry Ryan seems to view free agency as a way to fill out a roster/pitching staff rather than improving a roster/pitching staff.

    Nobody is asking TR to use free agents to completely overhaul the roster/pitching staff, but we are too far away from competitive at this point to be flippantly ruling out ways to get us back to respectability.

  3. #43
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

    1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?
    2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?


    After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

    I'll add one more...

    #3. Is that acceptable?

    ("No. Not to me.")

  4. #44
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    I agree with Shane Wahl above, where free agents can be used (flipped) to acquire young talent. The obvious model for this is the Cubs.

    The common first response to this is "we don't have the financial capabilities of the Cubs." While that is probably true, they started the year with a payroll a little over $100mil and with all of the trades they made, they look to be down in the $75 mil range (for a 2013 net payroll of $80-90mil)

    That sounds like a place where even Terry Ryan would admit we are comfortable.

    There are a myriad of reasons why a team might find themselves with payroll flexibility (lots of young players, new influx of revenue, tanking, etc). Not using that flexibility to improve your organization is what is truly the most frustrating thing for a fan to stomach (at least this fan).

    We stink. OK
    We're tanking. OK
    We had injuries. OK

    We're saving money. Not OK

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Well, I covered the known knowns, and the known unknowns, but I didn't consider the unknown unknowns, so I can understand your ambivalance.
    Any discord will be dismissed as coming from the nattering nabobs of negativism.

  6. #46
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

    1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?
    2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?


    After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

    I'll add one more...

    #3. Is that acceptable?

    ("No. Not to me.")
    The answer is no, no, and no, it would appear. It's hard to imagine a scenario where 1. is a no and no. 2 is a yes. Maybe if Hughes (or the equivalent) was the one signing and he had had an excellent season.

  7. #47
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct. The only team that is bucking that trend this year is the Dodgers, who frankly have shown they don't care one iota about money, the other teams that have tried it: Angels, Yankees, etc have all done very poorly. Free agency should be a way to improve your team in areas, but at the end of the day its always going to be all about home grown talent and shrewd trades that take you to the top (along with some GOOD free agent signings)

    I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for. Spending 150 mil on ANYONE at this point is not going to be in this teams best interests.

    Let's look at the playoff teams:
    Boston Red Sox: Actually they got bailed out big time by the Dodgers last year and got a ton of money and bad contracts taken off the books. The majority of their key contirbutors this year are now home grown players, or key signings (see: Ortiz several years ago)

    Detroit: The core of this team was put together in very nice trades: Miggy, Fister, Scherzer, etc along with a few key free agent signings: Prince, Sanchez. Plus the whole having Verlander in your system never hurt as well

    Tampa Bay: Built from within, smart trades.

    Cleveland Indians: Def not a team built through free agency.

    Texas Rangers: Built from within, smart trades, a couple key FA signings but nothing crazy (Beltre+Nathan)

    Atlanta+Pitt+Cin+STL

    All very good franchises, again they made some key signings in FA (without going over board) and made good trades and built from within.

    The Dodgers are literally the only team who took the whole "Lets spend a bunch of money on players right now" approach, and it wouldn't shock me if the whole thing goes belly up in 3-4 years ala the Yankees.

  8. #48
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

    1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?
    2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?


    After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

    I'll add one more...

    #3. Is that acceptable?

    ("No. Not to me.")
    1: Maybe. I think $11 million is not a bad place to put the over/under. It's about what I expect him to spend on pitching in free agency (unless it turns out he gets really creative/lucky in the trade market).

    Face it, none of the top-tier arms are going to come to Minn for any price. The time to lure one or more of them here was a couple years ago when you might have been able to convince them there was enough offensive talent to compete behind them. That's no longer the case. Nobody will be tripping over themselves to sign with the Twins this offseason, especially not on a short term (1-2 year) deal.

    John, in the interview Ryan gave you last year, he seemed to say he recognized a need to fish in the FA waters, but didn't feel those waters were as deep as you (and many of us) believed. (Based on results, it turns out he was right, by the way.) Maybe he's taking the opposite tack this year... saying publicly he won't be looking to do anything significant in FA, lower expectations, and then if he can make a deal, great. Frankly, that approach is much more Ryan-esque than what he was saying a year ago.

    2. Probably not by much. Even with some moderate FA help, the Twins are going to have to get lucky to improve their numbers a lot among SPs. Maybe a young guy or two bounces back with a better season. Maybe a former star SP on a make-good contract actually makes good.

    3. No, it's not acceptable. I'm just becoming more and more convinced it's also not avoidable. By not supplementing the home grown roster with legitimate MLB talent, especially pitching, the past couple of years, the opportunity to remain competitive while you wait for the young prospects to arrive and develop in to big leaguers was missed. The hole may just be too deep to dig out of in less than three more years at this point.
    Last edited by Jim Crikket; 09-24-2013 at 02:39 PM.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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  9. #49
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct.
    I think most agree with the point that a contender can't be built through free agency alone. But I also think that Ryan is saying quite a bit more than that.

    I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for.
    This is where I think we disagree. His quotes, to me suggest nothing of the sort. He seems to be suggesting that now is not the time to spend money on free agents. That the time to spend money on free agents is when all the other pieces are in place. That is, I think, the question.

    There are several good reasons to look at free agent acquisitions in the meantime.
    1) To give fans a more competitive product.
    2) To have assets to move at the trade deadline.
    3) To raise the bar for accountability for other players.

    I'm legitimately intrigued as to why you think we can expect him to spend "good money" this offseason and how you define "good money". I can't imagine any 3-4 year contracts. Are there some statements I haven't seen that suggest that line of thinking from Ryan?

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct. The only team that is bucking that trend this year is the Dodgers, who frankly have shown they don't care one iota about money, the other teams that have tried it: Angels, Yankees, etc have all done very poorly. Free agency should be a way to improve your team in areas, but at the end of the day its always going to be all about home grown talent and shrewd trades that take you to the top (along with some GOOD free agent signings)

    I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for. Spending 150 mil on ANYONE at this point is not going to be in this teams best interests.

    Let's look at the playoff teams:
    Boston Red Sox: Actually they got bailed out big time by the Dodgers last year and got a ton of money and bad contracts taken off the books. The majority of their key contirbutors this year are now home grown players, or key signings (see: Ortiz several years ago)

    Detroit: The core of this team was put together in very nice trades: Miggy, Fister, Scherzer, etc along with a few key free agent signings: Prince, Sanchez. Plus the whole having Verlander in your system never hurt as well

    Tampa Bay: Built from within, smart trades.

    Cleveland Indians: Def not a team built through free agency.

    Texas Rangers: Built from within, smart trades, a couple key FA signings but nothing crazy (Beltre+Nathan)

    Atlanta+Pitt+Cin+STL

    All very good franchises, again they made some key signings in FA (without going over board) and made good trades and built from within.

    The Dodgers are literally the only team who took the whole "Lets spend a bunch of money on players right now" approach, and it wouldn't shock me if the whole thing goes belly up in 3-4 years ala the Yankees.
    Why do people think that when some people suggest the Twins spend more money, they are recommending they spend like the Dodgers, or that they want the Twins to spend $150M dollars on a player?

    There are teams on your list that I would say spent in FA that would be "overboard" by Ryan's standards. (Tigers and Rangers as the most obvious)
    Last edited by Alex; 09-24-2013 at 03:17 PM.

  11. #51
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I think most agree with the point that a contender can't be built through free agency alone. But I also think that Ryan is saying quite a bit more than that.



    This is where I think we disagree. His quotes, to me suggest nothing of the sort. He seems to be suggesting that now is not the time to spend money on free agents. That the time to spend money on free agents is when all the other pieces are in place. That is, I think, the question.

    There are several good reasons to look at free agent acquisitions in the meantime.
    1) To give fans a more competitive product.
    2) To have assets to move at the trade deadline.
    3) To raise the bar for accountability for other players.

    I'm legitimately intrigued as to why you think we can expect him to spend "good money" this offseason and how you define "good money". I can't imagine any 3-4 year contracts. Are there some statements I haven't seen that suggest that line of thinking from Ryan?
    It also stands to reason that Terry Ryan has no reason to tip his true hand, the Twins have never been one to have a bunch of rumors and stuff leak, (which actually though it makes for boring speculation, its a good thing), while not tipping his hand and somewhat managing expectations Ryan is doing what most good GMs do (besides the Yankees and Dodgers)

    Just remember how quickly (and quietly) the Span and Revere trades came together last off-season?

  12. #52
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    If Terry Ryan is simply "not tipping his hand" or is stating an obvious fact like "you cannot win through free agency alone" then good grief. I do think that those are #2 and #3 of most accurate interpretations of what he has said. I get the impression that he will see free agency as merely a way to FILL the starting rotation with one pitcher this offseason.

  13. #53
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    Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  14. #54
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.
    Actually, I was surprised. When it didn't happen earlier, well, thought it wouldn't. Then, boom, done, gone.

  15. #55
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    I agree with Shane Wahl above, where free agents can be used (flipped) to acquire young talent. The obvious model for this is the Cubs.
    The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it. And then when it's time to flip him, you can have 29 teams replying "I didn't even want him at that price, free and clear. Now I need to give you a prospect for the right to pay him that same salary?"

    Yes, of course such trades do get made, for a variety of reasons such as key injuries, but the obstacle is still there if you're truly basing your strategy around the idea. How much could the Twins get for Correia or Willingham? For that matter, how much could their respective teams get for Greinke or Anibal Sanchez? The Feldman trade looks to me to be about the best you can hope for, and the downside to the strategy is if you acquired Willingham only to be a trade chip after a year, and have him end 2012 disabled instead and a shell of himself in 2013. On average, I think, the strategy won't fill up the farm system with very many prospects.

  16. #56
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.
    One could make the case that it was allowing the move to drag out that allowed the Twins to get someone like Meyer in return. I seriously doubt (though I could be wrong) that his name was mentioned the first time Washington approached the Twins.

    And just because pundits or journalists are mooting a possible trade does not mean it was actually in the works.

    And certainly no one (or very few people) expected Revere to go so quickly afterward.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoPilgrim View Post
    One could make the case that it was allowing the move to drag out that allowed the Twins to get someone like Meyer in return. I seriously doubt (though I could be wrong) that his name was mentioned the first time Washington approached the Twins.

    And just because pundits or journalists are mooting a possible trade does not mean it was actually in the works.

    And certainly no one (or very few people) expected Revere to go so quickly afterward.
    Semantics aside, Span getting trading to the Nats wasn't a surprise was my point. Would have been a bigger shock if he hadn't been at least traded.

    Revere trade was a huge shock.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it. And then when it's time to flip him, you can have 29 teams replying "I didn't even want him at that price, free and clear. Now I need to give you a prospect for the right to pay him that same salary?"
    Well it's like playing the stock market. You need to speculate a few buy low guys who have clear upside thus an ability to sell higher than when you bought them. Correia, Pelfrey, Carroll and Doumit are not the kind of players who can accomplish this. You need to go after low floor/high ceiling guys. Ryan seems to try to avoid the boom or bust scenario by going after high floor/low ceiling guys. However, as it keeps turning out, these seemingly safer free agents actually have a pretty low floor themselves.

    As to the last sentence, the Twins refusal to eat salary has been talked about a ton. I guess if they are unwilling to do so, this kind of free agent flipping is probably always going to be a problem for them.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 09-24-2013 at 04:10 PM.

  19. #59
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    It seems everyone has a different interpretation of Ryan's quotes. To me, it sounds like FA is a very low priority compared to the other 5 ways to acquire players. The factors as to why this ranks low on his priority list is to me the question that should be asked.

    1) Maybe he doesn't like signing 30+ because at that age they are more likely to breakdown.
    2) Maybe at 30+ years old he feels he's paying for prior performance, not future performance.

    I don't disagree, but if he never "swings" the FA "bat" he will never hit a game-winner. Nearly all of his FA signings are for low-risk, low-ceiling (even low-floor) and low reward type of guys. The boldest moves he made was a VERY cheap incentive laden deal for Rich Harden.

  20. #60
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    In a different article I suggested a couple of candidates to target in FA. One of them being, Ubaldo Jimenez at 5/65. Others suggested that BRef has him listed in the 3/$39M range ($13/yr). For the Twins to compete, risks like Jimenez (not for sure him but as an example) need to be taken. Someone else will give him a 4 year deal, the Twins are NOT an attractive destination for players to want to come to. Adding an extra year or two needs to be done as a risk, as a marketing of sorts to other FA's that we are an organization that is serious about winning. Sometimes an investment in a player is more about making a statement than just that one specific player (see Joe Mauer's contract).

    All that said, Ryan won't stretch the wallet and get outside his comfort zone.

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