Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 68

Thread: Masahiro Tanaka

  1. #41
    So back to Tanaka....

    Bottom line is that over last couple years the twins have cut payroll and saved. I think legitimately so as spending more the last couple years would not have been the answer...at best delivered mediocrity.

    The top line free agents pitchers weren't coming here (Zach Gereineke) they can get overpaid and play for contenders.

    But...with money saved and now the salary shed with Morneau being traded (Go Pirates!), Blackburn coming off the books, it is time to go after Tanaka.

    With the posting process once you win that you have a captive negotiation. If the Twins can get a legitimate number 2 starter who is 24 years old for a 90-100million composite over the next 6 years they need to do so.

    This is the number one hole at the moment and would provide the right now building block

    There are good things coming through the farm system...It just the pitching due to injury (Meyer) and needing more refinement (May) are at best mid season 2014 and more likely 2015.

    Once the farm system pipeline starts delivering it truly looks like the Twins are positioned for a 8-10 year run. Sure be nice to add another trophy to the champions club!

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,526
    Like
    78
    Liked 167 Times in 105 Posts
    Blog Entries
    31
    What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

    So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

    That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

    If another team goes higher I have no complaints.

  3. #43
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

    So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

    That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

    If another team goes higher I have no complaints.
    Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.

  4. #44
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,526
    Like
    78
    Liked 167 Times in 105 Posts
    Blog Entries
    31
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.
    So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

  5. #45
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.
    Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.

  6. #46
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,526
    Like
    78
    Liked 167 Times in 105 Posts
    Blog Entries
    31
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.
    I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.

    I do feel that the Twins have 40 million of space in the budget before they are really stretched beyond their market and revenues. I would direct all of that towards Tanaka or front loading bonus in an Abreau contract.

    They need to add that one key piece for 2014 and the future with a greater burden next year and flexibility to add in future years. It won't be near enough for 2014, but will show commitment towards rebuilding a winning team.

    I will never know what the scouts report. Short of that, I expect the biggest play they can make. To me, that is 40 million for 2014 split between posting fee (30 million) and year one salary (10 million).

  7. #47
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,381
    Like
    415
    Liked 812 Times in 512 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.
    I would personally hope they just bid less. Regardless of whether he checks out or not, he has upside. That's pretty clear. If they look at him and see back of the rotation arm, you still bid, but not as much...


    Though with the Twins, that one might get a higher bid (that was a joke BTW).

  8. #48
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,293
    Like
    32
    Liked 134 Times in 82 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.
    You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

    If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

  9. #49
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    341
    Like
    124
    Liked 27 Times in 21 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

    If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).
    I agree, I think the Darvish bid actually makes it more likely Tanaka gets a huge bid, maybe even something similar. Texas massively outbid everyone else, supposedly, but the fact that they did means any future GM's are going to have that in the back of their mind for someone like Tanaka. You have to decide between bidding what you think he's worth as opposed to bidding what you think it'll take to guarantee you win the bid, and the two are likely not to be close.

  10. #50
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

    If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).
    Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

    In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.

  11. #51
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,419
    Like
    66
    Liked 42 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.
    I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.


    When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

  12. #52
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,606
    Like
    68
    Liked 379 Times in 233 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.


    When is Tanaka expected to be posted?
    They probably liked his middling 7.7 K/9, but since the reports of multiple team's scouts showing up to watch, I think he's been striking out more guys, that may have turned the Twins scouts off.

  13. #53
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,293
    Like
    32
    Liked 134 Times in 82 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

    In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.
    A) Ryu is further proof of the stupid money that teams are throwing around (especially the Dodgers). I think Ryu was expected to be a 30M or so guy for the posting fee and FA contract. He got double that.

    B) That's the most I would bid but I also don't think that is going to win the bid.

  14. #54
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,606
    Like
    68
    Liked 379 Times in 233 Posts
    It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

    I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

  15. #55
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    334
    Like
    26
    Liked 51 Times in 35 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Wouldn't it be a fun shock if the Twins dropped a $50mm big of this kid?

    It would fit the "any current year price" comment from Jim Pohlad. And the contract wouldn't need to be 7-8 years, right?

  16. #56
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
    Posts
    1,595
    Like
    19
    Liked 77 Times in 44 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

    I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.
    I have a hard time believing that would fly with the MLB. They have taken some pretty drastic measures to try and level the playing field with respect to competitiveness. A system like that would make it completely unfair as the Japanese teams know which teams have more money.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  17. #57
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,664
    Like
    11
    Liked 54 Times in 35 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

    I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.
    NPB would never allow it. It would cut the posting fee dramatically as you would only have to try for top 3. It would also then encourage players to try to leave Japan as they could get mlb to bid for their services, make more money than in Japan, and drain Japan's talent pool. The players and agents would love it. The teams lose. The teams control the process.

  18. #58
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,272
    Like
    241
    Liked 462 Times in 291 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Glad this thread didn't devolve into "the Twins will never sign _____________ because they are too cheap". Though I don't think it's likely, if it doesn't happen, the reason is as much about the insane spending by other teams as the cheapness of the Twins. I'm not averse to overspending here and there to improve the team. And my sense is neither is Jim Pohlad (Ryan on the other hand...). But you have to pick and choose carefully lest you run out of cash.

    The Twins are not in danger of running out of cash anytime soon. But if, for example, they had signed the two Cubans and this Japanese player, there wouldn't be much left for filler. I'd love to see them sign one of them though. Of the three, Tanaka was my top choice, both because of need and projectability.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  19. #59
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,713
    Like
    1,159
    Liked 564 Times in 369 Posts
    I don't agree they can't get filler, but even if that is true, I'd rather they spend money on elite players and worry about filler later.
    Lighten up Francis....

  20. #60
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
    Posts
    594
    Like
    76
    Liked 112 Times in 67 Posts
    If the Twins were to win one of these bids, now would be the time. They have the cash, and it would be good for the team obviously, but would also give them some solid PR heading into All-Star mania.

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.