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Thread: Masahiro Tanaka

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    I was under the impression that the posting fee bidding for Darvish was ridiculously one-sided. As in, the Rangers paid $52 million, and the next highest bidder bid something like $15 million. I guess that kind of gross overpay is the price of certainty, but the only other posting fee that's ever even been in that neighborhood was Daisuke Matsuzaka.

    In other words, if there isn't one team out there ready and willing to break the bank to guarantee Tanaka's rights, is there any reason to think that this posting fee would be even close to Darvish? Even half?
    This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.

    That said, I don't know if Darvish is a good comp or not, but what I do know is that Tanaka pitched good enough to get the comparrisons, and I've heard more than once that his split finger fastball is better than anyone else's... anywhere.

    I have a tough time believing that the total investment for Tanaka is only going to be 60M. That would be nice, but I suspect you are looking at a 50Mish posting fee and a similar contract when it's all said and done. That's a good risk for a 24 year old pitcher, a lot smarter than tossing that at a 31 year old pitcher. Given the savings the Twins have had in the payroll dept this year and next year, I think they should do it, and this is another young talent that fits into that next wave.

  2. #22
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    Where are you guys getting this 100+ M number from? I haven't read anything that suggests that. History defiantly doesn't. Did I miss something? (Sure wouldn't be the first time I did)

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.
    Buster Olney reported it this way:

    "Remember how the Jays were expected to be such big players in the Yu Darvish bidding? Well, one official said that Toronto actually finished third in the bidding, behind the Rangers and Cubs, and that no bid was within $35 million of what Texas tendered."

    Maybe somebody in Texas was told it would mean their job if they didn't get Darvish, rather than if they grossly outbid other teams.

    Anyway, I tend to agree with you that it's going to take more than a total commitment of $60 million. If Darvish's posting is halfway between aberration and market correction, then Tanaka may fetch 20-25 million posting and 50-55 million for 5 years, that's about $75 million, or about halfway between 'bargain' and 'pricey'.

    That price would be doable and would go a long way toward restoring credibility on and off the field.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 09-11-2013 at 05:39 PM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    His fastball isn't going to blow many guys away but that's not Tanaka's game. He throws less than 40% fastballs. So his game is junk, and his junk pitches are solid.
    He sounds like a Rick Anderson pitch-to-contact dream.

    I think the Twins are all in on this guy....

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I was really impressed by what I saw with him. His delivery is silky smooth, he has a high release point, and hides the ball extremely well. His breaking stuff is fairly deceptive too.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    This is the second time I've heard this here, and I've never seen a link to substantiate it. I would think if this was true that someone in the Texas front office may have their job over it. That's a pretty gross miscalculation.
    Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.

    The more I think about Tanaka, I can't imagine why any team wouldn't be interested in him. He's arguably the most talented pitcher in the class but carries the bonus of being 2 years younger than anyone except Hughes. He's young enough to appeal to rebuilders and for the heavy hitters, posting fees don't count against the luxury tax (for the moment anyway). No, I don't like the Twins chances at all.

    Maybe the guy we should be watching is Kenta Maeda. His stuff isn't expected to translate as well, lower velocities across the board, but he gets very good results. Only problem is, the general opinion seems to be there's a <50% chance he posts this year.

  7. #27
    I have to admit utter and complete ignorance regarding Masahiro Tanaka other than what I have read in places such as Twins Daily. Based on what I have read it sounds like we are talking a relatively young (24) pitcher who has number two starter or worst case number 3 starter.

    Right now the pipeline for big league ready starters is bare...some good stuff coming (Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/Melotakis) But with injuries(Meyer) and still working on control (May) Isn't anything ready come Opening Day next year.

    Twins should overspend on this if needed. They have saved money recently on payroll and a bunch more coming off. Right now attracting a top free agent isn't going to happen with out absurd overpaying.

    Post high. By doing this it is actually cheaper. Post $35 pay 40-45 over 5 years and you are starting to fill that gap.

    Tanaka - 2014
    Meyer - 2014.5/2015
    May - 2015
    Berrios/Melotakis/Stewart - 2016

    Sure I'm missing some starting pitchers coming up. But you get Tanaka (who will be cheaper, wont require to trade away any assets, and won't have any other options like FA pitchers) and 2014 has a chance to be the year that the 90 loss years end. Hell at that point go nuts and overspend on Phil Hughes andn Twins might even think about a wildcard.

    Twins got the money with Morneau/Blackburn and previous subtraction. Going after Tanaka makes all the sense in the world....IF the scouts like what they have seen
    Last edited by abnormal_1; 09-11-2013 at 07:06 PM. Reason: Forgot closing )

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by abnormal_1 View Post
    I have to admit utter and complete ignorance regarding Masahiro Tanaka other than what I have read in places such as Twins Daily. Based on what I have read it sounds like we are talking a relatively young (24) pitcher who has number two starter or worst case number 3 starter.

    Right now the pipeline for big league ready starters is bare...some good stuff coming (Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/Melotakis) But with injuries(Meyer) and still working on control (May) Isn't anything ready come Opening Day next year.

    Twins should overspend on this if needed. They have saved money recently on payroll and a bunch more coming off. Right now attracting a top free agent isn't going to happen with out absurd overpaying.

    Post high. By doing this it is actually cheaper. Post $35 pay 40-45 over 5 years and you are starting to fill that gap.

    Tanaka - 2014
    Meyer - 2014.5/2015
    May - 2015
    Berrios/Melotakis/Stewart - 2016

    Sure I'm missing some starting pitchers coming up. But you get Tanaka (who will be cheaper, wont require to trade away any assets, and won't have any other options like FA pitchers) and 2014 has a chance to be the year that the 90 loss years end. Hell at that point go nuts and overspend on Phil Hughes andn Twins might even think about a wildcard.

    Twins got the money with Morneau/Blackburn and previous subtraction. Going after Tanaka makes all the sense in the world....IF the scouts like what they have seen
    Good first post! To nit pick, I would substitute Eades for Melotakis, but you pretty much nailed it.

  9. #29
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.

    The more I think about Tanaka, I can't imagine why any team wouldn't be interested in him. He's arguably the most talented pitcher in the class but carries the bonus of being 2 years younger than anyone except Hughes. He's young enough to appeal to rebuilders and for the heavy hitters, posting fees don't count against the luxury tax (for the moment anyway). No, I don't like the Twins chances at all.

    Maybe the guy we should be watching is Kenta Maeda. His stuff isn't expected to translate as well, lower velocities across the board, but he gets very good results. Only problem is, the general opinion seems to be there's a <50% chance he posts this year.
    They overpaid by 30M on the posting fee, and since the fee is generally half of the contract, the total overpayment is about 50-60M...

    I agree the Twins need to go after him.

  10. #30
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    Between last year and this year, Darvish has been worth 44.3M. His salary for 2012-2013 is a combined 15M. He's well on his way to making up whatever they 'overpaid' him.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off
    I agree with this 100%, he's well worth what they are/will pay him. Everyone else was wrong.
    Lighten up Francis....

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Where are you guys getting this 100+ M number from? I haven't read anything that suggests that. History defiantly doesn't. Did I miss something? (Sure wouldn't be the first time I did)
    There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.
    And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.
    Single-bid sealed envelope auctions are a complete crapshoot, especially when they happen infrequently and the quality of the good being auctioned varies dramatically. It would be pretty tough to fire someone for winning one, especially when it worked out the way it did.

    Submitting a bid that was one-third of the winning bid, which still turned out to be a bargain, would be a much better way to get fired, I would think.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.
    I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I was really impressed by what I saw with him. His delivery is silky smooth, he has a high release point, and hides the ball extremely well. His breaking stuff is fairly deceptive too.
    Agreed fully. The consistency and ease of his delivery was probably the first thing to really jump out at me when watching footage of him (well, maybe after seeing that filthy split). As I've said previously, I'm no pro when it comes to analyzing pitcher's mechanics, but his delivery looked damn near perfect to my untrained eye. And as you said, he hides the ball very well, which is definitely making his already good "junk" pitches even better and is a very big plus in my book when you're looking at pitchers who aren't going to blow people away with 100mph fastballs. Obviously there is an overall higher caliber of hitters in MLB than NPB, but I think he still has plenty of ability to make batters look foolish and induce a lot of ground balls over here with the combination of his deception, his incredible split and his plus slider.

    I'm not gonna sit here and proclaim he's some guaranteed ace, or even a guaranteed 2 or 3, but I feel pretty comfortable saying he has the stuff to be the ace of the Twin's staff by a huge margin, barring any other surprising FA signings, trades, or a miraculous transformation of Kevin Correia into Clayton Kershaw when the clock strikes 2014.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).
    A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.
    We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.
    I 100% believe the media is in the brainwashing business....I am surprised that people don't think that.
    Lighten up Francis....

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