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Thread: Jason Kubel DFA'd by Arizona

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    Jason Kubel DFA'd by Arizona

    Diamondbacks Designate Jason Kubel: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

    From 30 hr last year to a .324 slg percent this year. Rough season for him.

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    Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?

    There was a study about 5 years ago about how players were aging better. The group of players studied 1980-2008 peaked a little later and aged much more gradually compared to pre 1980 players. They were getting as much as two more effective years in their 30s.

    I wonder of steroids had any impact on maintaining the level of play later into the 30s. Certainly the conditioning and nutrition must be better in this era. However, the same conditioning and nutrition should also have improved a player in their 20s and decline is relative to individual peak performance.

    If we are entering the post steroid era of baseball and players are declining sooner, this will have an impact on decisions about free agent signings.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/...s/image002.png
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 08-27-2013 at 08:38 PM.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?.
    Kubel is 31 and has not really played much this season. Some players need regular play... And 31 is the beginning of the end for most players anyways...
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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years?
    You are right
    As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.

    But any team that signs a guy into his 40's is going to look stupid

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Man that is one steep fall. Yeesh.

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    Somebody will pick Kubel up over the winter and my guess is he'll return to being a fairly valuable hitter. Players don't often drop off a cliff like that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    31 is the beginning of the end for most players anyways...
    Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
    What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Jason Kubel can be a DH for 3 or so years with solid production. Boston might be a good spot for 2014 and beyond.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
    What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?
    This is always my point. Most free agents are 30-31 years old. There's a reason that most free agent signings don't pan out as hoped.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Some actual proof of your claim would be nice.
    What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?
    Proof? Here is an in dept study: Part 1 and Part 2.

    And here is a graph from the same source:




    And if you like another metric, here is this table from here (short and sweet):

    Here’s the total WAR of ALL nonpitchers by age, of players born since Ruth’s birth year (1895):
    Age WAR
    20 18
    21 168
    22 470
    23 1,120
    24 1,723
    25 2,383
    26 2,875
    27 3,206 <--
    28 3,114
    29 3,042
    30 2,683
    31 2,453
    32 2,054
    33 1,580
    34 1,179
    35 889
    36 563
    37 423
    38 224
    39 142
    40 87
    41 18
    42 18
    43 12


    hope that the point is made (with data, not "gut feelings")
    Very select players decline slower, but 31-32 is the downside for all pretty much...

    Pitchers are slightly different beasts. Both of those are for position players.

    Why someone would sign declining players? Some teams do not do, other than in supporting roles. Ask Tampa. What people do, does not always make sense

    And does not make sense to keep players in the minors during their early peak years to gain service time for late peak and decline years...
    Last edited by Thrylos; 08-28-2013 at 06:39 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Pitchers are slightly different beasts. Both of those are for position players.

    Thank you for your work.

    A while back I looked at pitchers who had an average WAR of 16 for 4 years. Over that last 25 years there was about 100 of them. With the exception of the injury for extended period of time pitchers, the age at when they fell below a 3 was generally about 34. Once they declined they didn't come back except the known PED users. The injured pitchers had a spotty record.
    Last edited by old nurse; 08-28-2013 at 08:22 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Thank you for your work.

    A while back I looked at pitchers who had an average WAR of 16 for 4 years. Over that last 25 years there was about 100 of them. With the exception of the injury for extended period of time pitchers, the age at when they fell below a 3 was generally about 34. Once they declined they didn't come back except the known PED users. The injured pitchers had a spotty record.
    Here is something from fangraphs, that actually is trying to answer the pitcher aging question (but the methodology is flawed.) If you take it at face value, you'd think that the peak is at 19-20 The problem is with size bias in that most of the 19 and 20 year olds who made the majors were excellent, but they are few of them. So someone needs to do regressions and plot career peaks and/or normalized data (like % of league; because the many sucky 28 year olds drive down the age group, compared to the few sucky 19 and 20 year olds), not the sum/average of performance of players of a particular age.

    The math is tough, so it is kinda of a hard problem...
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    Interesting stuff. I wonder what impact a catastrophic injury has on the ageing curve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    Interesting stuff. I wonder what impact a catastrophic injury has on the ageing curve.
    little because they are so small samples. The curve is actually calculated based on differences in performance in pairs of ages (eg 20/21, 21/22, 22/23 etc.) so it is normalized for individual players who might be outliers one way or another.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    You are right
    As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.
    So, cleaning up the steroid use is going to cause fans to lose interest??
    I disagree.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    You are right
    As the use of PED's steriods and the like decline, we will see guys age faster. To be frank, its bad for baseball. As the consistent stars decline faster the causal fan could lose interest.

    But any team that signs a guy into his 40's is going to look stupid
    There may well be a link between PED's and the popularity of the game. If individual longevity were correlated to the popularity of a sport, how do you explain the NFL, where star players burn out more quickly than any other sport? RB's have an avg life span of 3 years in the NFL.

    I think the ability to hit a round ball with a round bat at 90mph, and to do it with statistical consistency that we deem acceptable at an MLB level is just a very fleeting thing. Kubel can still play, but if he's not hitting .270 with power, his skill set is really quite limited. He can't run, and he's certainly not an asset in the field.

    It's easy to say "oh, he can just go to the AL and DH", but there's only 15 full-time DH jobs in the AL, and the expectations for a pure DH are higher than any other position.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    There may well be a link between PED's and the popularity of the game. If individual longevity were correlated to the popularity of a sport, how do you explain the NFL, where star players burn out more quickly than any other sport? RB's have an avg life span of 3 years in the NFL.

    I think the ability to hit a round ball with a round bat at 90mph, and to do it with statistical consistency that we deem acceptable at an MLB level is just a very fleeting thing. Kubel can still play, but if he's not hitting .270 with power, his skill set is really quite limited. He can't run, and he's certainly not an asset in the field.

    It's easy to say "oh, he can just go to the AL and DH", but there's only 15 full-time DH jobs in the AL, and the expectations for a pure DH are higher than any other position.
    There are players in the nfl other than qbs?

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Didn't he still have a year left on his contract?

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Didn't he still have a year left on his contract?
    2014 was a team option. $1 million buyout.

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    And Kubel is back in the AL Central. He's been traded to Cleveland:

    Indians Acquire Jason Kubel: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

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