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Thread: Offseason trade targets

  1. #81
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    Twins could look for guys who make more than they are worth, but then also face the same dilemma of free agency and overpaying for assets.
    That approach would have the virtue of being more interesting than watching the existing, recurring dilemma of a rotation and middle infield (Dozey excepted) cobbled together primarily from established mediocrity, fringe prospects, and quad A filler.

    The Twins face a future where they'll soon have a payroll comprised of Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and a bunch of kids making squat. Payroll carryover and front-loaded contracts/extensions are apparently a universal impossibility.

    That pretty much leaves "overpaying" for FA's or trading non-elite prospects for expensive salary-dump guys as the only alternative to the pitchforks-and-torches scenario of having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball playing in a publicly funded stadium.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 08-19-2013 at 12:10 PM.

  2. #82
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    I'm not sure about that.
    According to fangraphs, he throws his fastball about 62% of the time. I haven't looked it up, but that seems to be pretty comparable to most starting pitchers.
    His slider also has a positive value for his career. His curve has been a consistently negative pitch and his changeup has been up and down, positive some years, negative others.
    They're not very good pitches. Especially to some of the other FAs like Lincecum.

    The sample is all pitches in the 2012-2013 seasons.

    Sliders thrown: Hughes


    Hughes throws nearly half his sliders low-out of the zone. But hitters only bite 33.9% of the time:



    By comparison, Lincecum throws about the same proportion of sliders below the zone, but hitters bite 47.4% of the time. He also throws a lot more of them - 298 to 500, in those zones. That translated to 136 more swings at sliders low and out of the zone:




    Changeups, the same thing. Hughes:



    Last edited by Willihammer; 08-19-2013 at 01:02 PM.

  3. #83
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Lincecum (Pitchf/x calls it a splitter. I believe Lincecum calls it a change).






    Curveballs.

    Hughes:





    Same as slider. Hughes throws that curve in the low-right corner a lot but isn't baiting anyone with it.

    Lincecum:





    Lincecum got swings on 88 of 212 curveballs below the zone (41.5%), Hughes got 120 swings on 325 pitches (36.9%).
    Last edited by Willihammer; 08-19-2013 at 01:04 PM.

  4. #84
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    And just to complete the argument, the pitches that hitters are swinging at - primarily pitches in the zone, they aren't missing:








  5. #85
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    Are your numbers career or this year for Hughes and Lincecum?

  6. #86
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    While I love the charts, that's just too much to look at.....can you summarize the data?
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. #87
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Are your numbers career or this year for Hughes and Lincecum?
    2012 and 2013 to date, according to the subtitle.

  8. #88
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    While I love the charts, that's just too much to look at.....can you summarize the data?
    Hughes throws a good portion of his sliders, curveballs, and changeups out of the zone low, but hitters aren't swinging at them. This behavior I believe evidences the weakness of the action on those pitches. Moreover, when hitters do swing at these pitches, particularly when they're in the zone, they rarely miss.

    By contrast, batters swing at more of Lincecum's sliders, changeups (Splitters), and curveballs, specifically the ones that are low and out of the zone where any contact is likely to be weak. Moreover, they are whiffing much more frequently. This, I believe, evidences the strength of the action on these pitches.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 08-19-2013 at 02:04 PM.

  9. #89
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    Thanks!
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    See: Chris Davis. Finding someone like him isn't common by any stretch but it does happen. When you have room to provide opportunity and a change of scenery to a oncehighly thought-of player....it's a perfect way to jump start your team.

    Baltimore is a great example. Machado is a stud and some of their pitching prospects are starting to make it. (Some, again cautionary tale, are not). But they traded two unspectacular players and turned them into a superstar.

    we have all the ingredients for this: opportunity, unspectacular but semi-valuable vets, and a change of scenery. We should be looking for diamonds in the rough right now.
    Yes. James Loney is another great example. I momentarily questioned the move for a declining player by the Rays at the time....and then I quickl;y realized it was the Rays who had made the move.....what a classic Rays-type bargain @ $2M.

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    2012 and 2013 to date, according to the subtitle.
    Lincecum remains a high strikeout pitcher. Something has happened that his HR rate is up as well as his ERA over the last two years. One year would be an anomaly. Two years is a disturbing trend.

  12. #92
    Cincinnati has a bevy of starting pitching. Any chance they'd entertain moving Cingrani? Not that I'd do it, but what if Buxton or Sano was in on the deal?

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by mk View Post
    Cincinnati has a bevy of starting pitching. Any chance they'd entertain moving Cingrani? Not that I'd do it, but what if Buxton or Sano was in on the deal?
    If the Twins moved Sano or Buxton they would bring back a pitcher a lot better than him.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    That approach would have the virtue of being more interesting than watching the existing, recurring dilemma of a rotation and middle infield (Dozey excepted) cobbled together primarily from established mediocrity, fringe prospects, and quad A filler.

    The Twins face a future where they'll soon have a payroll comprised of Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and a bunch of kids making squat. Payroll carryover and front-loaded contracts/extensions are apparently a universal impossibility.

    That pretty much leaves "overpaying" for FA's or trading non-elite prospects for expensive salary-dump guys as the only alternative to the pitchforks-and-torches scenario of having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball playing in a publicly funded stadium.
    I'm not against this for the reasons you state. The advantage of a trade in this scenario is the overpay is more in money than years. Twins have to give up an asset but usually more a depth guy rather than an impact guy.

  15. #95
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    Willinghammer: You certainly do not need to convince me of Lincecum over Hughes. I just dismissed Lincecum completely as I assume that Terry Ryan wouldn't break the bank for him.
    I figured Hughes was a more realistic target.

    I was rallying for Lincecum in another thread, where I stated that it's my opinion that the last 2 years have been as much bad luck as anything.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    If the Twins moved Sano or Buxton they would bring back a pitcher a lot better than him.
    I thought Cingrani's numbers were pretty great. If Sano or Buxton is too much, who would be reasonable? Arica? Kepler plus Hendriks?

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by mk View Post
    I thought Cingrani's numbers were pretty great. If Sano or Buxton is too much, who would be reasonable? Arica? Kepler plus Hendriks?
    Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.
    It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.
    IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.
    It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.
    IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.
    Beat me to it. The other thing that should be noted about Cingrani is he is mostly a two pitch pitcher. He has an above average fastball/change up but his breaking ball is still below average. I would expect some regression once the league sees him a few more times unless he develops a good third pitch.

    If you move Sano/Buxton, as Brook said, you expect an ace back. David Price might be an option next year.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.
    It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.
    IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.
    Maybe I got dazzled by the ERA, K and WHIP stats but I don't know much about him beyond the stat sheet. Though a low HR rate when you call the Great American Ball Park home is pretty impressive.

    Is there an "Ace" worth going after? It would take at least a Buxton or Sano plus something else to get Kershaw and the privilege to pay him 20M+ per year. I think that's too steep. Same scenario for David Price. I would have considered Bundy before TJ, but certainly not for either of those guys now.

  20. #100
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Lincecum remains a high strikeout pitcher. Something has happened that his HR rate is up as well as his ERA over the last two years. One year would be an anomaly. Two years is a disturbing trend.
    Agree to a point, but FIP says his ERA should probably improve even if his HR rate does not.

    Hey, if he didn't have some sort of red flag(s), he wouldn't even be considered a possible long-shot signing, right? If he sustains the K rate, he has a decent shot at being more effective in 2015-16 than any Twins pitcher currently above A ball.

    Also, his geek chic look will boost team popularity in the Teen Heartthrob demographic, partially offsetting his high price....

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