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Thread: Offseason trade targets

  1. #61
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    I agree none are probably a 1. Completely disagree that none are a 2 or 3.
    Get Hughes out of Yankee Stadium and he's a really good #3, and probably a solid #2.
    I would like to squash this idea.

    ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

    Phil Hughes is another bullpen talent, over-reliant on his fastball due to ineffective secondary offerings. We have about 10 of those guys already.

    edit: with the HR tracker link, select Target Field as an overlay. By my eye, Hughes would be no better off.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 08-18-2013 at 09:06 PM.

  2. #62
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    I am with you on his pitch mix. I don't think he has the mix of a mid-rotation starter.

    As for home and road, he has given up many more homeruns at home in his career. It is 76-35. While his career xFIP is virtually the same and slightly better at home at around 4.34, his ERA has been much worse over his career at home. The home/road difference cannot be ignored.

    Someone will risk starting pitcher dollars on Hughes this winter. They will be betting that he can be an effective starter away from the Yankees. Maybe it will be the Twins. Whichever team signs him should do so knowing that his pitch mix may lead him to the bullpen in order to find success.

  3. #63
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I am in favor of Josh Johnson and do not think he will be that expensive. Linecum probably will be expensive, but I feel is worth the risk. A lot of the rest of the free agent pitchers will not be worth the money they will get.

  4. #64
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    The Twins aren't the only team desperate for starting pitching willing to take on salary. If it was that easy don't you think Ryan would have already done it?
    Who says the Twins are willing to trade and take on salary? I remember very few instances where the Twins took on significant salary. One is John Smiley (in the 80s) and another might be JJ Hardy (by Bill Smith). This is the part of the general managing game that I see the Twins as among the most conservative. They seldom commit money to those outside their system and they seldom take on significant salary--both of these areas are significant risks, and the Twins seem unwilling to take that risk.

  5. #65
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I am with you on his pitch mix. I don't think he has the mix of a mid-rotation starter.

    As for home and road, he has given up many more homeruns at home in his career. It is 76-35. While his career xFIP is virtually the same and slightly better at home at around 4.34, his ERA has been much worse over his career at home. The home/road difference cannot be ignored.

    Someone will risk starting pitcher dollars on Hughes this winter. They will be betting that he can be an effective starter away from the Yankees. Maybe it will be the Twins. Whichever team signs him should do so knowing that his pitch mix may lead him to the bullpen in order to find success.
    In general, I tend to be skeptical of players for whom the primary argument is "he needs to face weaker competition and/or play in easier conditions."

    If "get him out of Yankee Stadium" is the best argument one can make for Phil Hughes, pass.

  6. #66
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    They seldom commit money to those outside their system and they seldom take on significant salary--both of these areas are significant risks, and the Twins seem unwilling to take that risk.
    It should also be noted that most teams operate their payroll budgets closer to their limits, so they have less flexibility to make these sorts of moves. It's not that it's "easy" - it's that it's possible for the Twins.

    I'm just not sure why anyone would believe they'd pursue that avenue at this point.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    In general, I tend to be skeptical of players for whom the primary argument is "he needs to face weaker competition and/or play in easier conditions."

    If "get him out of Yankee Stadium" is the best argument one can make for Phil Hughes, pass.
    Phil Hughes is a fly ball pitcher who pitches half his games in a stadium that could be used for little league games.
    I understand your point of view, but each situation should be looked at on a case by case basis, sometimes it is a legitimate factor.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I would like to squash this idea.

    ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

    Phil Hughes is another bullpen talent, over-reliant on his fastball due to ineffective secondary offerings. We have about 10 of those guys already.

    edit: with the HR tracker link, select Target Field as an overlay. By my eye, Hughes would be no better off.
    It looks to me like many of the HR to RF are just past the wall, which at Target Field likely means off the wall.

    Still it's not like he'd be trading HR for outs at TF, he'd be trading HR for 2B which is better, but not ideal. Hughes might end up being a very nice pitcher, but I agree that he is going to get overpaid due to the lack of top end pitching talent in this year's free agent class and the common knowledge that he pitches so much better away from Yankee Stadium.

    Also...

    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    In general, I tend to be skeptical of players for whom the primary argument is "he needs to face weaker competition and/or play in easier conditions."

    If "get him out of Yankee Stadium" is the best argument one can make for Phil Hughes, pass.
    No kidding, the Twins have historically choked against big name teams in big time markets, do they want to add another player who likely will have 'fraidy-cat syndrome every time they are in NY? The Twins seem to have to go through the Yankees every time they reach the post season, another "ace" who can't get it done in Yankee Stadium seems kind of silly.

  9. #69
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    If not Hughes, what would you do to get pitcher here next year, and teh years after?
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If not Hughes, what would you do to get pitcher here next year, and teh years after?
    Best not to sign anyone. :-) Pick any FA pitcher out there someone will find fault and reason not to sign him, so just avoid it all and not sign anyone.

    But on to trading...

  11. #71
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    Who do we have to trade that teams will actually want to give up a quality pitcher for? No one on the active roster who doesn't have a no-trade clause. People also seem adamant about not trading Sano...

    So, who to trade exactly? Seems some believe we can trade some of our not so highly ranked prospects and land gold star pitching. Not sure how that's going to happen or why one would think it could.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Hey DC. As you are on the scene, what is it about Haren this year that has made him such a disaster? His peripherals all look great relative to his career numbers (with the huge exception in that he's practically reversed his GB and FB percentages). He's been very effective in July and August.

    Based on your description, it seems unlikely that the Nats will try to re-sign him for 2014.

    This looks and smells like a classic buy-low, big reward-type, opportunity. What are we missing here that you, in your advantageous position as a daily eyewitness, can provide concerning Haren that would dissaude one from pursuing him in the offseason?
    I have gone to a couple of Nats games (including seeing the Twins here). My son is a partial season ticket holder and has gone to a bunch. He has seen Haren several times. The frigging disaster is his evaluation. The Nats wont try to resign Haren for sure. Based on his reports--Haren is done. This is not a big reward opportunity. Maybe a 10% chance of being a decent starter. Most likely a repeat of Marquis, Ponson, etc.

    If the Twins could get him on a 1 year $5 million contract and take a shot that he will be better than Pelfrey or Corriea--go for it. I doubt they will see results. If some team is foolish enough to give Haren a 3 year $20 million deal--it better not be the Twins.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I would like to squash this idea.

    ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

    Phil Hughes is another bullpen talent, over-reliant on his fastball due to ineffective secondary offerings. We have about 10 of those guys already.

    edit: with the HR tracker link, select Target Field as an overlay. By my eye, Hughes would be no better off.
    I'm not sure about that.
    According to fangraphs, he throws his fastball about 62% of the time. I haven't looked it up, but that seems to be pretty comparable to most starting pitchers.
    His slider also has a positive value for his career. His curve has been a consistently negative pitch and his changeup has been up and down, positive some years, negative others.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Who do we have to trade that teams will actually want to give up a quality pitcher for? No one on the active roster who doesn't have a no-trade clause. People also seem adamant about not trading Sano...

    So, who to trade exactly? Seems some believe we can trade some of our not so highly ranked prospects and land gold star pitching. Not sure how that's going to happen or why one would think it could.
    The only way that happens is a salary dump.....but do teams need to dump salary if they are all getting $25MM in new revenue next year?
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Thread titled trade targets and they are back to talking free agent pitching
    Good FA pitching rarely comes to market and when it does, the cost is out of the Twins range. Who might be available in trade. It seems the Twins have the prospects to get anyone available, but who would you be willing to trade, and for who (realistically because of people like Kershaw are not going to be on the market).

  16. #76
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    I know this probably isn't popular, but I love Buxton/Sano as much as any of y'all. I would trade Buxton, right now, for Snydergaard. Mets have some good young pitching already and need the help in the outfield. We need pitching desperately and would give us an Ace!

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by AROG View Post
    I know this probably isn't popular, but I love Buxton/Sano as much as any of y'all. I would trade Buxton, right now, for Snydergaard. Mets have some good young pitching already and need the help in the outfield. We need pitching desperately and would give us an Ace!
    Buxton is a once in a generation talent. Think Mike Trout.
    Snydergaard is a very good pitching prospect if he reaches his ceiling. But, while they are hard to find, there are several aces around baseball. There is generally only 1 or 2 players in the entire league at any given time who are as valuable as a Mike Trout type talent. I would never make this trade.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Buxton is a once in a generation talent. Think Mike Trout.
    Wouldn't Trout and Buxton be considered the same generation? :-)

  19. #79
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    I love Buxton, but expecting Mike Trout is overboard, isn't it? Mike Trout is a once in a generation player, probably. I'd think that would imply it is VERY unlikely Buxton is that good....
    Lighten up Francis....

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The only way that happens is a salary dump.....but do teams need to dump salary if they are all getting $25MM in new revenue next year?
    Teams wouldn't need to dump salary even without the extra $25 mil. Pittsburgh was smart in getting teams thay were cutting veterans or acquiring assets that had fallen out if favor.

    Twins could look for guys who make more than they are worth, but then also face the same dilemma of free agency and overpaying for assets.

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