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Thread: Offseason trade targets

  1. #41
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    Finding a pitcher following a bad season (in Feldman's case an ERA+ of 86) and signing him to a 6 million dollar contract is the easy part. Lots of pitchers coming off bad seasons sign in that range.

    The hard part is figuring out which guy is going to pitch really well for a half season. We're the Cubs smarter or just lucky?

    The Cubs spent 29.5 million dollars on Feldman (traded), Baker (injured), Jackson (5+ ERA) and Villanueva(6th starter) on pitching. They were able to turn Feldman into Strop and Arrieta. I don't think many teams can afford to operate this way. I do think that if a team spends 30 million on free agent pitchers, the goal ought to be making the playoffs and not flipping one of them midseason.
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 08-18-2013 at 10:21 AM. Reason: Corrected era+

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Yes, he got Willingham, Doumit and Carroll...but he lost Kubel, Cuddy and Nathan. Saved a good chunk of money, and did nothing with the saved money.
    OK, maybe not a "Band-Aid", how about Ryan successfully applied a generic store-brand bandage to the gaping wound, then?

    All those savings of these last 2 years (and the next round of cuts this upcoming offseason) are being compiled in a huge secret stash somewhere in the Cayman Islands for when the timing is finally just right to add those "last FA pieces" in one offseason's flurry of signing activity, right?

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Finding a pitcher following a bad season (in Feldman's case an ERA+ of 82) and signing him to a 6 million dollar contract is the easy part. Lots of pitchers coming off bad seasons sign in that range.

    The hard part is figuring out which guy is going to pitch really well for a half season. We're the Cubs smarter or just lucky?

    The Cubs spent 29.5 million dollars on Feldman (traded), Baker (injured), Jackson (5+ ERA) and Villanueva(6th starter) on pitching. They were able to turn Feldman into Strop and Arrieta. I don't think many teams can afford to operate this way. I do think that if a team spends 30 million on free agent pitchers, the goal ought to be making the playoffs and not flipping one of them midseason.
    Did the Twins have the $29.5M type of monies available for a "quantity with potential quality set of pitching acquisitions", or didn't they?

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I'm not sure I'd call Kepler an org top 10 guy at this point. He got off to a great start in CR but has largely cooled. Right now, he's tools without a ton of results. He might be a top 10 guy in another org, but he's still very raw. It will be interesting. I don't think it's in the Twins or Kepler's best interest to put him on the 40 man and start burning options when he's in A+ ball, but if someone is going to claim him, you have to.
    Kepler is not a top ten by any means.

    Nobody will claim him in the MLB portion of the draft. As is he can be claimed at the AA portion of the draft. They need to put him in Rochester's roster to keep him from the AAA portion of rule 5 (Vargas too) and he will be fine.
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  5. #45
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    One thing about this coming off-season: One can spend $30-35M/year and build a rotation with 3 free agents who were below expectations this year, but their peripherals show that they will rebound, and they are young enough (alphabetically) :

    Dan Haren
    Phil Hughes
    Josh Johnson

    (Also Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco and Tim Lincecum... there are plenty younger FA Ps out there, unlike last off season)

    but Ryan has to go or go off his bottom feeding spendthrift ways that brought the likes of Correia, Marquis, Ponson et. al. to the Twins. He's got the cash to spend ($20M off the books for Morneau and Blackburn) he better spend it.
    Last edited by Thrylos; 08-18-2013 at 10:10 AM.
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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The Twins should be targeting top prospects that have struggled in their debuts. Justin Smoak or Lawrie or whomever that might represent a buy low chance.
    Smoak has had more at bats than Parmalee and they both have a lot more at bats than Colabello. Why would we want a used and mostly unsuccessful 1B?

  7. #47
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    The Cubs spent nearly 40 million in free agency last year and stayed in 5th place. They may improve to 70 wins. How much more do they need to spend this winter?

  8. #48
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    The Twins won't be buyers until Sano Buxton and Rosario are at the Major League level. Right now if they make a trade they are going to be sellers.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I'd say its nearly equally as rare for teams to leave an organizational top 10 prospect exposed. I think the Twins protect him, but it does put them in an interesting position.
    You're not the first person to mention this. Does anyone have any evidence to support that assumption?

    That said the Twins have as many spots on the 40 man roster as they need. There certainly is a place available for all the Twins prospects that need protecting.

    If that happens with Kepler (or Polanco) then they really need to be on the fast track. Like the express lane being escorted by police vehicles with military helicopters flying ahead warning people to get out of the way after the whole freeway has been shut down presidential style. Kepler is likely going to start 2014 at Cedar Rapids. I would assume the Twins want to have an option year remaining when he gets to the majors so that when he inevitably struggles he can be sent back to AAA just like every other prospect. That means he needs to make it from A-ball to the majors in just 2 years. Polanco would be slightly better because he will start next season at A+ Fort Myers. Of course this all assumes that these guys pan out like we hope they will. If Kepler has hit his ceiling then the point is moot.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thegrin View Post
    Smoak has had more at bats than Parmalee and they both have a lot more at bats than Colabello. Why would we want a used and mostly unsuccessful 1B?
    See: Chris Davis. Finding someone like him isn't common by any stretch but it does happen. When you have room to provide opportunity and a change of scenery to a oncehighly thought-of player....it's a perfect way to jump start your team.

    Baltimore is a great example. Machado is a stud and some of their pitching prospects are starting to make it. (Some, again cautionary tale, are not). But they traded two unspectacular players and turned them into a superstar.

    we have all the ingredients for this: opportunity, unspectacular but semi-valuable vets, and a change of scenery. We should be looking for diamonds in the rough right now.

  11. #51
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The Cubs spent nearly 40 million in free agency last year and stayed in 5th place. They may improve to 70 wins. How much more do they need to spend this winter?
    Yeah, they shouldn't have done anything at all to improve their team, the audacity. Everyone knows you can't build a winner through free agency and that building through the draft is the only "right" way to do it. What were they thinking?
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Yeah, they shouldn't have done anything at all to improve their team, the audacity. Everyone knows you can't build a winner through free agency and that building through the draft is the only "right" way to do it. What were they thinking?
    Let's sign more decline phase players in free agency. We get one good year and watch them labor in the field and on the base paths the next two.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Let's sign more decline phase players in free agency. We get one good year and watch them labor in the field and on the base paths the next two.
    Guess the last time the Twins signed top Free Agents, it did not help them.... As a reminder, that was 1991
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Guess the last time the Twins signed top Free Agents, it did not help them.... As a reminder, that was 1991
    Correct. When we dominated the Central in the 2000's we didn't need them.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Correct. When we dominated the Central in the 2000's we didn't need them.
    Adding an impact free agent during any one of those years could have put us in the position to make a WS run, rather than winning relatively weak divisions and getting stomped in the playoffs.
    Not to mention the game is constantly evolving.
    I'm getting a little tired of listening to the division titles of the 2000's argument. It's a bit like listening to glory days stories from an ex Prom Queen sitting at the end of the bar, alone, at 2am.
    Those days are over.
    The sooner we move on and look forward instead of looking back, the better chance we have of building a winning roster.

  16. #56
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    Moderator note -- there is too much sarcasm in this thread. Please tone it down. People are making valid points, but the sarcasm is detracting.

  17. #57
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    I think you are talking about Jack Morris' one year 3.7 million dollar deal. He had a player option at a significantly lower 2 million dollar salary for 1992 that he declined.

    Maybe you are talking about Chili Davis' 1 year more moderate 1.7 million. The Twins had the option for 1992 so their risk did not extend beyond 1 year.

    In both cases, they key was committing only 1 year to decline phase players. I would absolutely make 1 year free agent deals like that this winter. Do you think the market has changed since 1991? Is it still possible to make these kinds of 1 year deals? If not, I don't see the parallel.
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 08-18-2013 at 08:09 PM.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    One thing about this coming off-season: One can spend $30-35M/year and build a rotation with 3 free agents who were below expectations this year, but their peripherals show that they will rebound, and they are young enough (alphabetically) :

    Dan Haren
    Phil Hughes
    Josh Johnson

    (Also Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco and Tim Lincecum... there are plenty younger FA Ps out there, unlike last off season)

    but Ryan has to go or go off his bottom feeding spendthrift ways that brought the likes of Correia, Marquis, Ponson et. al. to the Twins. He's got the cash to spend ($20M off the books for Morneau and Blackburn) he better spend it.
    I am not impressed by any of these. I live in DC area--I can tell you that "below expectations" is mild for Haren--he has been an absolute frigging disaster. Lincecom has had 3 bad years in a row. Maybe Hughes Santana and Nolasco--maybe not. I would go after Josh Johnson --but he will be two expensive and would he even come here. None of these guys has potential to come back to a top of rotation (or even 2 or 3 guy).

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
    I am not impressed by any of these. I live in DC area--I can tell you that "below expectations" is mild for Haren--he has been an absolute frigging disaster. Lincecom has had 3 bad years in a row. Maybe Hughes Santana and Nolasco--maybe not. I would go after Josh Johnson --but he will be two expensive and would he even come here. None of these guys has potential to come back to a top of rotation (or even 2 or 3 guy).
    I agree none are probably a 1. Completely disagree that none are a 2 or 3.
    Get Hughes out of Yankee Stadium and he's a really good #3, and probably a solid #2.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
    I am not impressed by any of these. I live in DC area--I can tell you that "below expectations" is mild for Haren--he has been an absolute frigging disaster. Lincecom has had 3 bad years in a row. Maybe Hughes Santana and Nolasco--maybe not. I would go after Josh Johnson --but he will be two expensive and would he even come here. None of these guys has potential to come back to a top of rotation (or even 2 or 3 guy).
    Hey DC. As you are on the scene, what is it about Haren this year that has made him such a disaster? His peripherals all look great relative to his career numbers (with the huge exception in that he's practically reversed his GB and FB percentages). He's been very effective in July and August.

    Based on your description, it seems unlikely that the Nats will try to re-sign him for 2014.

    This looks and smells like a classic buy-low, big reward-type, opportunity. What are we missing here that you, in your advantageous position as a daily eyewitness, can provide concerning Haren that would dissaude one from pursuing him in the offseason?

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